baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Look at the post-war history of the IOC awarding the Games YEAR - CITY ....... CONTINENTAL GROUPING 1956 - Melbourne - Oceania (Note: jet age travel began in 1958-59) 1960 - Rome ----- Europe 1964 - Tokyo ------ Asia 1968 - Mexico City -- No. America 1972 - Munich ------- Europe 1976 - Montreal ----- No. America 1980 - Moscow ------- Europe 1984 - Los Angeles --- No. America* (because there were NO OTHER bidders. where were the 'brave' European cities? Nowhere to be found.) 1988 - Seoul --------- Asia 1992 - Barcelona ---- Europe (My, was that only 17 years ago? It sure felt like yesterday. 1996 - Atlanta -------- No. America 2000 - Sydney ------- Oceania (first return in 44 years!!) 2004 - Athens -------- Europe 2008 - Beijing ------- Asia 2012 - London ------ Europe 2016 - Madrid??? Europe??? -- Very unlikely to happen. Just look at the pattern. I mean let's just cut the crap. Madrid has the LEAST chance of all. The bookies never lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bezzi Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Atlanta is recent too. So the battle is between Rio and Tokio only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Atlanta is recent too. So the battle is between Rio and Tokio only. Okey. But money talks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bezzi Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 You're right but the actual financial situation of usa isn't so comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 You're right but the actual financial situation of usa isn't so comfortable. Well, 2 things: 1. I am talking about TV rights; and 2. Games in the US are privately financed -- so regardless if the economic situation isn't good, the money's in the bank for a US Games. The economy's already starting to turn around. The stock market is up again...so I think that issue is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinderella Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Well, 2 things: 1. I am talking about TV rights; and 2. Games in the US are privately financed -- so regardless if the economic situation isn't good, the money's in the bank for a US Games. The economy's already starting to turn around. The stock market is up again...so I think that issue is moot. Baron, I'm sure you have read me everywhere saying that continental rotation is a crucial factor and therefore Madrid is very unlikely to be awarded this time. I've said it plenty of times and I say it now again, just in case. Having said that, I also would like to focus your attention in another factor: it will come a day, not that far, that Europe will be repeating games in a row, just because it is the only continent with several cities able to host and with many countries interested in hosting. You will agree with that. For sure it happens the same with US & Canada, and obviously the same in China, Korea and Japan. But this is almost nothing compared to such a bunch of countries like Italy, Germany, UK, France, Spain, The Netherlands or Russia. I'm not sure if I'm able to explain the point, but I'm sure you'll get me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Baron, I'm sure you have read me everywhere saying that continental rotation is a crucial factor and therefore Madrid is very unlikely to be awarded this time. I've said it plenty of times and I say it now again, just in case.Having said that, I also would like to focus your attention in another factor: it will come a day, not that far, that Europe will be repeating games in a row, just because it is the only continent with several cities able to host and with many countries interested in hosting. You will agree with that. For sure it happens the same with US & Canada, and obviously the same in China, Korea and Japan. But this is almost nothing compared to such a bunch of countries like Italy, Germany, UK, France, Spain, The Netherlands or Russia. NO, I DON'T AGREE. Why should the IOC revert to its old ways? The situation you descirbe was when it was only Europe that could afford to put on the Games and there was no jet travel. With the help of money from American TV and easy jet travel, this Euro-centric thinking of yours just isn't GOING TO happen. It is an INTERNATIONAL association with over 200 dues-paying members. Further, I think the other European countries are WISE enough to know WHEN to time their bids...unlike a certain Iberian city which has the "Istanbul syndrome." Do you really think the IOC will revert to its antedeluvian ways while a rival, FIFA, breaks its old mold AND spreads out its product? Think again. As I've said if there were NO OTHER cities outside EUrope bidding, then of course, the choice would be in Europe. But that ain't the case. Just look at the cities lining up for 2020: Busan, Korea (another foolish dreamer) Capetown, RSA Delhi, India Istanbul might try again Lima, Peru Madrid, Spain Prague, Czech Rep. Rio, Brazil = just 2 in Europe. So, how can you say that in future years, Europe will flock to bid AND win? You underestimate the patience, prudence and far-sightedness of your fellow Euro Olympic Committees. Case in point, at least Amsterdam has a long-range plan of shooting for 2028 -- not EVERY year. Do you also know how much it costs to wage one of these serious bids? At least $45 - 50 million today? Can the smaller European countries afford this every cycle? Not even Germany has been so foolish. When was the last time it entered a serious summer bid? I think that was for 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob2012 Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 It's certainly more likely that Europe will have two games in a row than any other continent. And with the IOC being as unpredictable as it can be, who knows, Madrid may well win this time around. However, I think it's quite unlikely, and that a more likely scenario for any continent hosting twice in a row is if the rival bids in a particular year are much weaker than the winner. Or if a host has problems or a disaster befalls the existing host and a back-up is needed quickly. In the current scenario with three strong bids outside of the previous host's continent, I find it hard to believe the IOC would vote for a European host. Then again stranger things have and do happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinderella Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 It's certainly more likely that Europe will have two games in a row than any other continent. And with the IOC being as unpredictable as it can be, who knows, Madrid may well win this time around. However, I think it's quite unlikely, and that a more likely scenario for any continent hosting twice in a row is if the rival bids in a particular year are much weaker than the winner. Or if a host has problems or a disaster befalls the existing host and a back-up is needed quickly.In the current scenario with three strong bids outside of the previous host's continent, I find it hard to believe the IOC would vote for a European host. Then again stranger things have and do happen... Certainly are my English skills that doesn't help me to express what I exactly want to say, LOL. You made the point, Rob. That was exactly what I was trying to say, but you are English and I'm Italian... Baron, I agree with you... did you read any of my other posts??? I just wanted to note what Rob suggests now, which I think is likely to happen, but not in 2016. From your list, I can perfectly see Cape Town, Istanbul, Amsterdam hosting and maybe Delhi some years later. Also Buenos Aires or Santiago de Chile, may I add to your list. But let's focus in Europe and the second-row cities which could also perfectly host in a future, and here we have Prague, Lisbon, Milan, Warsaw, Budapest, Brussels, Nice, Copenhagen, Dublin, Valencia, Hamburg... The list is endless! This time is similar to 2005: the four contenders are very strong and I can see very few reasons for the IOC to choose Madrid between the others. BUT please, let's not use constantly the continental rotation point because I can see it would be not that strong in the future. If Tokyo (i.e.) had not bid this time, and for example Leipzig (i.e.) did, I'm sorry to say that Europe would have host again. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M_O_S Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Much was argued regarding when should Madrid should bid again after the 2012 defeat. The obvious choice was 2020, where the continental rotation would not be a threat. However, the organisation decided to go for 2016 in order to be able to make use of the 2012 project which was near-perfect. The result has been that, polishing the cons of the 2012 bid they've come out with an incontestable proposal which in many aspects leads the way. About your argument you more than anyone should know that the IOC does not own anything to anyone. I'll make this more clear: You argue TV rights for the US are a cash cow (which they are) and that they will exert a lot of pressure in order to get the Games in their prime time zone. However, you fail to regard the fact that European TV networks pay A LOT for their rights as well, probably as much once you add all the individual TV rights from every country. Games in East Asia are good as well, and like you argued the time difference means that afternoon events can be broadcasted midday in Europe, and morning events are late evening in the US. If US TV companies moan because of rights, then so be it. They're going to have to buy the rights anyway, and if the price does fall, they will compensate them with money from other regions. Look at the fact that the Games have always been held in Europe, America or East Asia/Oceania where the biggest TV audiences are located. It's not only the US that watches TV I'm afraid. And in any case, this is only one of many factors that influence the pondering of the decision. About the sponsors, they're global brands and will make as much money from Games in the US, Europe or Japan. True that many of them are US-based brands that might lobby for games in their soil, but it won't be because of money trust me. And regarding private finance, I believe that is without a doubt Chicago's weakest point and the one Obama must work on. If the government is not behind, the IOC won't take the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 I completely agree with Rob's assessment. I will not say a repeat European host is impossible, but it is very unlikely. There are three capable hosts aside from Madrid in this round, and yes Madrid has a very sound bid, but they are by no means "the one to beat." If this race had the following cities, I would call a European city win likely... Toronto Madrid Paris Los Angeles Istanbul But this is not the case. Remember that all European IOC members are not going to support Madrid, because many may have their own motives with future European bids (summer and winter)! I don't see many non-European IOC members supporting Madrid (except for some in the Americas if Rio is eliminated). This recent influx of Spaniards on this forum living in la la land is just slightly annoying. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Baron, I agree with you... did you read any of my other posts??? I just wanted to note what Rob suggests now, which I think is likely to happen, but not in 2016. From your list, I can perfectly see Cape Town, Istanbul, Amsterdam hosting and maybe Delhi some years later. Also Buenos Aires or Santiago de Chile, may I add to your list. But let's focus in Europe and the second-row cities which could also perfectly host in a future, and here we have .. The list is endless! Grazie, Cenerentola. Siempre estoy correcto en muchas veces. But let's go down the list of cities you just mentioned: Prague - well, didn't make it this time. Country base isn't big enough; doubtful about yachting venues. Lisbon, Valencia - yeah, after Barcelona and Madrid Milan -- Ugly city. Besides, they're more interested in fashion and opera than sports. You should know, the CONI never takes them seriously. Warsaw, Budapest, Brussels -- maybe in 3026 Nice - if Paris can't even win, more so Nice? Copenhagen and Dublin - too small; not a snowball's chance in hell. That's why they're getting the IOC Sessions, as a 'consuelo.' Hamburg - after their disaster with Leipzig, the German Olympic Committee will only put forward Berlin. If there are Alpha cities (London, Paris, Berlin and Moscow in Europe), the IOC will go with those. It is a known fact (and Rogge has already said so (for those of you who follow every breath and hiccup of the IOC officials), a city has to at least have a metro population of 2.5 million to make a serious summer Olympic bid. It only makes sense. There has to be a critical mass to put on something so large as a Summer Olypic Games of the 21st century and which will have a profound impact on its citizens' lives afterwards, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deloxley Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Grazie, Cenerentola. Siempre estoy correcto en muchas veces. But let's go down the list of cities you just mentioned: Prague - well, didn't make it this time. Doubtful about yachting venues Lisbon, Valencia - after Barcelona and Madrid Milan -- they're more intereste in fashion than sports. Youshould know, the CONI never takes them seriously. Warsaw, Budapest, Brussels -- maybe in 3026 Nice - if Paris can't even win, more so Nice? Copenhagen and Dublin - too small; not a snowball's chance in hell. That's why they're getting the IOC Sessions, as a 'consuelo.' Hamburg - after their disaster with Leipzig, the German Olympic Committee will only put forward Berlin. If there are Alpha cities (London, Paris, Berlin and Moscow in Europe), the IOC will go with those. It is a known fact (and Rogge has already said those (for those of you who follow every breath and comma of the IOC officials), a city has to at least have a metro population of 2.5 million to make a serious summer Olympic bid. It only makes sense. There has to be a critical mass to put on something so large and which will have a profound impact on its citizens lives afterwards, good or bad. Just for your information, Baron, about alpha cities: Alpha World Cities ++: * London, New York City Alpha World Cities +: * Hong Kong, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing Alpha World Cities: * Milan, Madrid, Seoul, Moscow, Brussels, Toronto, Mumbai, Buenos Aires, Kuala Lumpur Alpha World Cities -: * Warsaw, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, Zurich, Mexico City, Dublin, Amsterdam, Bangkok, Taipei, Rome, Istanbul, Lisbon, Chicago, Frankfurt, Stockholm, Vienna, Budapest, Athens, Prague, Caracas, Auckland, Santiago RIO is on the Beta list, together with a bunch of other cities... Just to clarify which cities are alpha and which not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob2012 Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 About your argument you more than anyone should know that the IOC does not own anything to anyone. I'll make this more clear:You argue TV rights for the US are a cash cow (which they are) and that they will exert a lot of pressure in order to get the Games in their prime time zone. However, you fail to regard the fact that European TV networks pay A LOT for their rights as well, probably as much once you add all the individual TV rights from every country. I'm afraid that's wrong. The US pays at least double what Europe does. NBC paid $2.2 billion for the 2010 and 2012 Olympics. The EBU bought rights for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics and 2012 Summer Games in London for $746 million in 2004. http://www.sportbusiness.com/news/155060/i...-3bn-tv-bonanza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lehari Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 The mayor of Rome, Gianni Alemanno, said last week that he wants to bring back the Olympic Games to Rome. He didn't precise if Rome is going to bid for 2020 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 You argue TV rights for the US are a cash cow (which they are) and that they will exert a lot of pressure in order to get the Games in their prime time zone. However, you fail to regard the fact that European TV networks pay A LOT for their rights as well, probably as much once you add all the individual TV rights from every country. Games in East Asia are good as well, and like you argued the time difference means that afternoon events can be broadcasted midday in Europe, and morning events are late evening in the US. If US TV companies moan because of rights, then so be it. They're going to have to buy the rights anyway, and if the price does fall, they will compensate them with money from other regions. Look at the fact that the Games have always been held in Europe, America or East Asia/Oceania where the biggest TV audiences are located. It's not only the US that watches TV I'm afraid. And in any case, this is only one of many factors that influence the pondering of the decision. And regarding private finance, I believe that is without a doubt Chicago's weakest point and the one Obama must work on. If the government is not behind, the IOC won't take the risk. TV rights: 1. Unless the US nationalizes its TV industry and puts into law ONLY One network, it will always be way ahead of even the EBU rights. Uhmmm, just like the selection of the host city, there are always at least 3 serious bidders for the US TV rights -- and this is what keeps the pulse of the IOC racing. Which will be the sucker American TV network this time? Most of EUrope is covered by one bidding body, the EBU. Therefore how can you compare those 2 scenarios?? Even China with over a billion people, still buys the Olympics CHEAP, CHEAP - muy baratissimo -- because they have only the state-run network bidding...and the IOC takes it or leaves it. (India might be the same.) 2. INFLATION is a factor all around. If European TV rights will go up ...so will US TV rights correspondingly. Why should the rate inflation be limited to one continent? 3. Private finance -- you forget that the last 3 Games held in the US all made money: LA - $223 million; Atlanta - $10 mil; and Salt Lake - $56 mil. The citizens of those cities and counties are NOT in hock for the next few generations unlike the Montrealers and Mexico City residents -- or even the Chinese who of course can't open their mouths vis-a-vis the $40 billion spent by their overseers. So how can that be a bad thing? If you are privately financed, you can also pretty much issue certain rules and regulations of how you want the Games run...which you would not otherwise be able to do if you were using public monies. Look at the thread on the suit of the women ski jumpers in Vancouver in that folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Just for your information, Baron, about alpha cities:Alpha World Cities ++: * London, New York City Alpha World Cities +: * Hong Kong, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing Alpha World Cities: * Milan, Madrid, Seoul, Moscow, Brussels, Toronto, Mumbai, Buenos Aires, Kuala Lumpur Alpha World Cities -: * Warsaw, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, Zurich, Mexico City, Dublin, Amsterdam, Bangkok, Taipei, Rome, Istanbul, Lisbon, Chicago, Frankfurt, Stockholm, Vienna, Budapest, Athens, Prague, Caracas, Auckland, Santiago RIO is on the Beta list, together with a bunch of other cities... Just to clarify which cities are alpha and which not. Sorry, not MY LIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 The mayor of Rome, Gianni Alemanno, said last week that he wants to bring back the Olympic Games to Rome.He didn't precise if Rome is going to bid for 2020 or later. There ya go. And even Rome has to find the right time to do so...for a 2nd time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deloxley Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Sorry, not MY LIST. Sorry, it´s the list of the Globalization and World Cities Study Group and Network (GaWC) based at the geography department of Loughborough University. Whatever your list is, Im sure the IOC will look at this one if they care so much about alpha cities, like you said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 Sorry, it´s the list of the Globalization and World Cities Study Group and Network (GaWC) based at the geography department of Loughborough University.Whatever your list is, Im sure the IOC will look at this one if they care so much about alpha cities, like you said before. U're splitting hairs and you know it. Anybody with a college eduation and having traveled widely can tell what is an 'ALpha' city and what isn't without having to look a a list. Maybe you need to look at a list. I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deloxley Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 U're splitting hairs and you know it. Anybody with a college eduation and having traveled widely can tell what is an 'ALpha' city and what isn't without having to look a a list. I wasn't born yesterday. Me neither, and having lived in Europe, America, the Middle East and Asia, makes me tell many cities without looking at a list...so, as I said before, there is a scientific method to classificate cities, and for a reason Madrid is the fourth most visited city in Europe. Im sorry if you didnt travel well enough to know our city... we are very open, you are welcome to come whenever you want... Im sure you will stop delivering so much crap about us around here or at least, with not such a attitude to damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lehari Posted May 12, 2009 Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 The mayor of Rome, Gianni Alemanno, said last week that he wants to bring back the Olympic Games to Rome.He didn't precise if Rome is going to bid for 2020 or later. Oops, I wanted to say "He didn't SPECIFY if Rome is going to bid for 2020 or later." Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted May 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2009 , and for a reason Madrid is the fourth most visited city in Europe. Only 4th? Therefore, why should it carry more weight than Tokyo, Rio and Chicago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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