Who Do You Want, Who Do You Think?

[Stu]

I want Madrid

I think Madrid

It will be MADRID!!!

So many Madrid supporters were saying the same thing last time, for the 2012 campaign. Indeed, it was only the majority of London supporters that seemed to be very unsure if they could win and thought Paris would host. Even after the stadium fiasco in the New York campaign, Baron was adamant that New York would win.

[M_O_S]

So many Madrid supporters were saying the same thing last time, for the 2012 campaign. Indeed, it was only the majority of London supporters that seemed to be very unsure if they could win and thought Paris would host. Even after the stadium fiasco in the New York campaign, Baron was adamant that New York would win.

The 2012 bid was different. It was the first time Madrid was face to face with world class cities that are a step above it. Nevertheless the bid was good and it was seen as possible. And it lost by a very, very small margin.

This time round the cities it's bidding against (excepct Tokyo) are of it's same status as to say. The problem being though, the continent rotation unwritten rule. If Madrid is to be chosen, the first ones to believe so are it's supporters. In any case, I guess the passion is a heritage thing.

[Stu]

I think you're a little harsh on Madrid. Madrid didn't look out of place in the 2012 campaign - it's a major European capital and deserved to be there.

Madrid will get its Olympics - I just think 2016 is too early. Too soon after London, and too soon after Barcelona when you consider that Paris, Rome and Berlin may consider hosting and have had to wait considerably longer.

[Cinderella]

I think you're a little harsh on Madrid. Madrid didn't look out of place in the 2012 campaign - it's a major European capital and deserved to be there.

Madrid will get its Olympics - I just think 2016 is too early. Too soon after London, and too soon after Barcelona when you consider that Paris, Rome and Berlin may consider hosting and have had to wait considerably longer.

Well, yes but... why haven't their bid this time as Madrid has madly done? If there's intention to bid, I can't see no problem in bidding every time in a row a la Istanbul if public is still supporting.

[baron-pierreIV]

Well, yes but... why haven't their bid this time as Madrid has madly done?

Because they KNOW when to space out their bids. As you said, they're NOT doing it a la Istanbul -- which really looks foolish and desperate sometimes. You HAVE TO KNOW when to time your bid. It just shows you are strategic and logical in your thinking.

[Soaring]

Because they KNOW when to space out their bids. As you said, they're NOT doing it a la Istanbul -- which really looks foolish and desperate sometimes. You HAVE TO KNOW when to time your bid. It just shows you are strategic and logical in your thinking.

Exactly. I think it is foolish to repeatedly throw in a bid. Chicago would have never done a bid for 2012, and I think they would be foolish to have a 2020 bid if Rio won. I would support a Chicago 2020 bid if Madrid or Tokyo wins.

[baron-pierreIV]

Exactly. I think it is foolish to repeatedly throw in a bid. Chicago would have never done a bid for 2012, and I think they would be foolish to have a 2020 bid if Rio won. I would support a Chicago 2020 bid if Madrid or Tokyo wins.

Another point to remember: the IOC likes to have a few bids...it doesn't matter where they're from -- so long as they have one camp outbidding the other for the IOC's benefit. They do not WANT to be in the same position as for LA 1984 (and a few other times) when they had NO choice but to accept that bidder AND their terms.

Same thing with the TV rights bidding. That's why they get their gravy from the US networks...whereas the European (or Chinese) markets...even though the total viewership numbers may be the same (or even more), do NOT weigh as heavily on the IOC radar because -- and we've discussed this before -- they ony have 1 party to deal with -- who can pretty much name their bargain-basement price. If you're selling your house, you at least want a few interested parties so that will jack up your eventual profits.

So for the cities, it's really up to them to size up their chances. It's not for the IOC to cut them off early -- and thereby leave only 1 or 2 in the bag.

[cfm Jeremie]

Same thing with the TV rights bidding. That's why they get their gravy from the US networks...whereas the European (or Chinese) markets...even though the total viewership numbers may be the same (or even more), do NOT weigh as heavily on the IOC radar because -- and we've discussed this before -- they ony have 1 party to deal with -- who can pretty much name their bargain-basement price.

Uneducated post:

- EBU has had some competition for the European TV rights in the past,

- from 2016 on-ward, the IOC negotiate TV rights by country within Europe

[baron-pierreIV]

Uneducated post:

1. EBU has had some competition for the European TV rights in the past,

2. from 2016 on-ward, the IOC negotiate TV rights by country within Europe

You could've said it another way...

1. Yeah, there were some instances -- but really not major enough for the media to take notice.

2. Well, so they finally figured out there's more than one way to skin the cat. But imagine that's like 50 negotiating sessions vs. just 1 for the US.

But can't many countries (especially the smaller, more central ones with 3 or 4 neighbors) get 3 or 4 signals from around -- and therefore why should they have to make a separate contract with the IOC?

J -- is this your area of expertise now?

[baron-pierreIV]

[oops, dupe post.

[ken]

Hello everyone,

I've joined the Forum only recently. I guess London 2012 made me a "new converted" \o/

I know we cannot make good statistics with only 36 votes in this poll but here are some comments regarding the results so far:

a ) Excluding those who want Madrid to win, nobody thinks the Spanish capital will get it this time.

b ) Tokyo seems to have very low support; no one believes they will win and only four want them to.

c ) Chicago and Rio seem to be the most popular, but Rio leading this race.

All four bids are highly competitive in my opinion, which may allow anything to happen.

However, having the points above in mind as a thermometer, what I THINK wil happen is:

1) RIO. The "South American appeal" come in a very convenient time, with possibly a multi-polar geopolitical world and increasing interests in countries outside the traditional first world. Engaging a whole new (sub)continent would also be desirable to the IOC, I suppose. Also Brazil has managed to maintain relatively good economic activity during the present crisis, giving the country more credibility to host SOG's. When it comes to what matters, namely money, Brazilian govnmts have guaranteed investiments and sponsors would also profit from games at a time zone GMT-3, perfectly in between the most important markets, US and Europe.

2) Chicago. I would not be surprised if it came on top. The American bid has very strong points but I would bet on Rio.

3) Madrid. Technically very very impressive. Very few negative points, maybe terrorism. But it is not Europe's turn. And it won't be Spain's turn for quite a while - Barcelona is too fresh in our memories. I trust they have good chances of getting the next FIFA Cup in a joint bid with Portugal. After South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014 it will definately be Europe. Britain is also very interested in hosting the 2018 World Cup, though. But Spain/Portugal will be a strong competitor.

4) Tokyo. Due to apparently almost no interest, I trust they will be the first to go. Somehow unfair, because their plans are without a doubt not the worst, but...

Well, that's it. Now all we have to do is wait...

[memorabilia]

Insteresting to see as today's vote (who will win), we have 2 leaders with Chicago & Rio :

14 votes : Chicago & Rio

9 votes : Madrid

0 vote : Tokyo

[Rob2012]

Hello everyone,

I've joined the Forum only recently. I guess London 2012 made me a "new converted" \o/

I know we cannot make good statistics with only 36 votes in this poll but here are some comments regarding the results so far:

a ) Excluding those who want Madrid to win, nobody thinks the Spanish capital will get it this time.

Yep, an interesting point, and one that shows I maybe shouldn't have posted this poll in the same week the Spanish Armada loomed on Gamesbids' horizon.

But, like the Armada, I don't think strength and the will of God alone will win it for the Spanish this time around. Timing and tactics are what count. Madrid 2012 (and indeed 2020) might have had both of these, but four year's later and the geopolitical winds have changed direction are about to blow their latest charge onto the rocks.

I think I've just about killed that metaphor.

[M_O_S]

Yep, an interesting point, and one that shows I maybe shouldn't have posted this poll in the same week the Spanish Armada loomed on Gamesbids' horizon.

But, like the Armada, I don't think strength and the will of God alone will win it for the Spanish this time around. Timing and tactics are what count. Madrid 2012 (and indeed 2020) might have had both of these, but four year's later and the geopolitical winds have changed direction are about to blow their latest charge onto the rocks.

I think I've just about killed that metaphor.

The funny thing about the Armada is that it wasn't meant to fight on the water, but to gain the battle on land. Obviously, they never managed to get there.

In any case, hope is the last thing one loses so, up until October 2nd, we still hold a fair amount of chances lol

[Intelfly]

I want

Madrid, is the only big european capital that has never hosted an Olympic Games, and because is the strongest bid I think they deserved the oportunity. I understand that there is this unwritten rule of rotation... but what? Get over it! Some time has to be broken, and this is a great opportunitty. Since that is the only thing against this bid, I think it would show how different two Olympic Games can be from London to Madrid, one with an Anglo-english appeal and the othe Spanish-Latin rithm. I know they will make the most of it!

Tokyo, It would be a world class event and probably quite different to Beijing, I wouldn't mind it neither.

Chicago, great city, but i wasn't conviced about their bid, many things I am not too sure about. The only thing for it is the support of barack obama and Oprah winfrey, but it sounds so tacky, i just makes me dont want to watch it.

and last Rio, even being a nice city and lovely people... i just dont think they can host right now what they are capable of. so i would preffer them to hold a bit more and then make it even better. Personally I would love the first games in south america to be in Buenos Aires.

who i think,

I just dont know, because i think is quite close

but i think in first round one of the american cities would go

then tokyo

and the final will be between the other american city and madrid

[baron-pierreIV]

I want

Madrid, is the only big european capital that has never hosted an Olympic Games, and because is the strongest bid I think they deserved the oportunity. I understand that there is this unwritten rule of rotation... but what? Get over it! Some time has to be broken, and this is a great opportunitty. Since that is the only thing against this bid, I think it would show how different two Olympic Games can be from London to Madrid, one with an Anglo-english appeal and the othe Spanish-Latin rithm. I know they will make the most of it!

Tokyo, It would be a world class event and probably quite different to Beijing, I wouldn't mind it neither.

Chicago, great city, but i wasn't conviced about their bid, many things I am not too sure about. The only thing for it is the support of barack obama and Oprah winfrey, but it sounds so tacky, i just makes me dont want to watch it.

and last Rio, even being a nice city and lovely people... i just dont think they can host right now what they are capable of. so i would preffer them to hold a bit more and then make it even better. Personally I would love the first games in south america to be in Buenos Aires.

who i think,

I just dont know, because i think is quite close

but i think in first round one of the american cities would go

then tokyo

and the final will be between the other american city and madrid

Hmmmm. Just noticed your username: IntelFLY. Is that like Superfly??

Una mosca inteligente?

[cslopes54]

I want

Madrid, is the only big european capital that has never hosted an Olympic Games, and because is the strongest bid I think they deserved the oportunity. I understand that there is this unwritten rule of rotation... but what? Get over it! Some time has to be broken, and this is a great opportunitty. Since that is the only thing against this bid, I think it would show how different two Olympic Games can be from London to Madrid, one with an Anglo-english appeal and the othe Spanish-Latin rithm. I know they will make the most of it!

Tokyo, It would be a world class event and probably quite different to Beijing, I wouldn't mind it neither.

Chicago, great city, but i wasn't conviced about their bid, many things I am not too sure about. The only thing for it is the support of barack obama and Oprah winfrey, but it sounds so tacky, i just makes me dont want to watch it.

and last Rio, even being a nice city and lovely people... i just dont think they can host right now what they are capable of. so i would preffer them to hold a bit more and then make it even better. Personally I would love the first games in south america to be in Buenos Aires.

who i think,

I just dont know, because i think is quite close

but i think in first round one of the american cities would go

then tokyo

and the final will be between the other american city and madrid

I dont see much hope on Madrids bid, if its down to Madrid-RiO and you want to take the latin culture in consideration, its debateable but id say Brazil is a " latiner" country than Spain cuz its located in Latin American..well I just think that Rio can pull out a varied and differentiated games from what we've already seen.

[Soaring]

I dont see much hope on Madrids bid, if its down to Madrid-RiO and you want to take the latin culture in consideration, its debateable but id say Brazil is a " latiner" country than Spain cuz its located in Latin American..well I just think that Rio can pull out a varied and differentiated games from what we've already seen.

I agree that Madrid is only strengthening Rio's bid by saying Madrid's bid would be the "Latin Games"

[Athan]

I dont see much hope on Madrids bid, if its down to Madrid-RiO and you want to take the latin culture in consideration, its debateable but id say Brazil is a " latiner" country than Spain cuz its located in Latin American..well I just think that Rio can pull out a varied and differentiated games from what we've already seen.

However, something is latin when it comes from the Italian region of Lazio. There was where the Latin language developed and, therefore, all actual languages that descent from Latin (such as Italian, French, Romanian, Portuguese and Spanish) are latin too.

It's easy to guess why South America is called Latin America: because people there speak two latin languages, Portuguese and Spanish. So, of course it's debateable, but Spain became latin much before Brazil.

[baron-pierreIV]

, but Spain became latin much before Brazil.

But that doesn't make Brazil any less Latin. I mean nearly all the Latin countries are heavily catholic, too -- so another common bond. But with a population of 170,000,000+ vs. Spain's, what? 42 mil? -- I would say Brazil is the stronger case ...and especially in terms of thie topic of winning the Olympics, the fact that they have NEVER staged an Olympic whereas you, Spain, just had one some 17 years ago, certainly should favor the case of one that hasn't hosted.

Rio's liabilities are: (1) hosting the WC two years before; and (2) the basic lay of the land: I think the way the city is laid out makes getting to some venues from the projected Village problematic.

[M_O_S]

But that doesn't make Brazil any less Latin. I mean nearly all the Latin countries are heavily catholic, too -- so another common bond. But with a population of 170,000,000+ vs. Spain's, what? 42 mil? -- I would say Brazil is the stronger case ...and especially in terms of thie topic of winning the Olympics, the fact that they have NEVER staged an Olympic whereas you, Spain, just had one some 17 years ago, certainly should favor the case of one that hasn't hosted.

Rio's liabilities are: (1) hosting the WC two years before; and (2) the basic lay of the land: I think the way the city is laid out makes getting to some venues from the projected Village problematic.

Well depends on how you measure it, but it's a pointless discussion. Brazil might have a bigger population but,as of today, Spain is more powerful both in sporting terms and economic terms.

[ken]

Well depends on how you measure it, but it's a pointless discussion. Brazil might have a bigger population but,as of today, Spain is more powerful both in sporting terms and economic terms.

I don't think it's a wise decision for the Spaniards to compare Spain and Brazil as shown above.

That's because Spain has already undergone an impressive boost in the last decades and Barcelona-92 probably contributed to it.

Why not giving a chance to another country? Wouldn't it be more interesting if the SOG could somehow be used to improve some figures in Brazil and maybe make a difference? (Similarly to what happened in Spain.)

Well, I have to admit I'm a little bit biased in this discussion because Madrid-2016 doesn't thrill me but I find some of the reasoning used in its defence weak.

To me it's not even clear cut that Spain is more powerful. The numbers I found show there's not such a big gap.

In Beijing, Spain got 18 medals and Brazil, 15.

In economical terms, the CIA Factbook says that in 2008 the nominal GDP of these two countries were almost the same (considering purchasing power, Spain is even 3 positions behind).

Not so impressive.

I must defend Spain, though, from being denied in its "latinity". I know some personal perception is involved but technically it is as latin as Brazil.

But, as pointed out by one of our colleagues, I wouldn't use this card against Rio.

====

Going back to the statistical analysis:

Chicago)

Want: 10

Think: 14

Rio)

Want: 15

Think: 17

Madrid)

Want: 12

Think: 10

Tokyo)

Want: 5

Think:1

[thorbr]

Well depends on how you measure it, but it's a pointless discussion. Brazil might have a bigger population but,as of today, Spain is more powerful both in sporting terms and economic terms.

ACTUALLY.... for 2009, it's predicted that Brazil will surpass Spain and Canada in terms of GDP, and already has a bigger market than Spain......... about Sports.... well, you should be ashamed to have had only 3 more golden medals than Brazil in the last Olympic Games.... we are a developing country, still growing a lot, still improving a lot........ Spain, by the other hand, is there since pre-history.... has received a lot of money from the European Union and so on........ it's a shame for you to be in such a position....

[Soaring]

I think it is stupid to compare Brazil and Spain's "Latiness" - not even a word. Bottom line, both countries are Latin, and if Rio hosts it would be the first nation with Portuguese as its primary language hosting the Games. Besides, a predominant number of Brazil's population have ancestors that came from original Latin countries, so there is nothing to really argue about!

[baron-pierreIV]

I know. I don't even know why that JAS, Jr. opened up the subject.

I guess he has nothing else whereby to push Madrid's candidacy.