ArChAnGeL Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 what does everyone think the first ballot will look like? i think all 5 candidates will be very close, moscow will get the votes from the former soviet block who r loyal to the russians. Madrid has a good bid, so they will get a few votes, London, NYC, and PAris will all garner votes. so if i had to predict Paris - 27 London -25 NYC - 22 Madrid- 14 Moscow - 11 After that, if the rumours are true that theres a vote exchange between London, Madrid and NYC, it could be all over for Paris. I think for Paris to win, Moscow needs to garner a bit of votes in the first round and those votes need to shift to Paris's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 4, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Good calculation, Arkangel. They do look right -- and I agree. Will fax them over to Singapore right now. Seriously, that's what I would have come up with too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekky Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 what does everyone think the first ballot will look like?i think all 5 candidates will be very close, moscow will get the votes from the former soviet block who r loyal to the russians. Madrid has a good bid, so they will get a few votes, London, NYC, and PAris will all garner votes. so if i had to predict Paris - 27 London -25 NYC - 22 Madrid- 14 Moscow - 11 After that, if the rumours are true that theres a vote exchange between London, Madrid and NYC, it could be all over for Paris. I think for Paris to win, Moscow needs to garner a bit of votes in the first round and those votes need to shift to Paris's way. Paris - 26 London - 24 Madrid - 23 NYC - 21 Moscow - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.x Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 It's safe to say that this is the tightest Olympic race in recent memory. Never have there been 5 first rate world class cities in the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 ask me on Wednesday lol....I think it will be VERY close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr.x Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 London - 26 Paris - 24 NYC - 20 Madrid- 19 Moscow - 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 4, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 London - 26Paris - 24 NYC - 20 Madrid- 19 Moscow - 10 I'll buy that, too. Looks more realistic than Arkangel's. But I still say your CLosing SIg needs a few more logos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 In the very end, for it to truly be the tightest race in history, there actually has to be a tie. Australians won the two tighest races of all time - Melbourne took 1956 by one vote over Buenos Aries and Sydney locked up 2000 by 2 votes over Beijing. So what does happen in event of a dead heat tie at the 4th and final ballot? You can't drop the bid with the least votes. Does Rogge pick the host? Anyway, my predictions for the first ballot... Paris - 38 London - 23 New York - 21 Moscow - 9 Madrid - 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArChAnGeL Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 In the very end, for it to truly be the tightest race in history, there actually has to be a tie. Australians won the two tighest races of all time - Melbourne took 1956 by one vote over Buenos Aries and Sydney locked up 2000 by 2 votes over Beijing.So what does happen in event of a dead heat tie at the 4th and final ballot? You can't drop the bid with the least votes. Does Rogge pick the host? Anyway, my predictions for the first ballot... Paris - 38 London - 23 New York - 21 Moscow - 9 Madrid - 8 no there is a vote on just those cities tied for the last place, to see which city moves onto the next round. it happened in 2004 when Cape Town and Buenos Aires finished tied for 3rd on the 2nd ballot, so they had to do another ballot on just those two cities. It was like 66-44 and Cape Town moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svenskatiger Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Paris : 29 London : 25 Madrid : 20 NYC : 19 Moscow : 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 You misunderstood the question... Let's use 2010 as an example. Let's say Salzburg gets eliminated and then Vancouver and PyeongChang each get 54 votes (I know there were 109 votes on that ballot, but let's just say the vote was evenly split). So, who gets the Games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOlympiadsW Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 doesn't Rogge decide then in that case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArChAnGeL Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 You misunderstood the question...Let's use 2010 as an example. Let's say Salzburg gets eliminated and then Vancouver and PyeongChang each get 54 votes (I know there were 109 votes on that ballot, but let's just say the vote was evenly split). So, who gets the Games? yeah rogge decides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenadian Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 That's what I thought...but wouldn't that be the ultimate! The man who so delicately walked the line telling everyone had a fair chance and that he had no favourites...then he had to pick the host. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micheal_warren Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 London: 27 Paris: 24 Madrid: 21 New York: 18 Moscow: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 5, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Anyway, my predictions for the first ballot...Paris - 38 London - 23 New York - 21 Moscow - 9 Madrid - 8 THat looks plausible. I'll buy that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guardian Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 With most of you predicting the first ballot having Paris and London taking the two top spots, I agree pretty much with that. For me, the winner could take around 3 or 4 ballots in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotth Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 I already posted my whole 4 round prediction in another thread, but here's my round 1 for the record Paris 35 London 30 Madrid 15 NewYork 13 Moscow 6 As for this being teh closest race ever I think it is one of teh first times where there has been 4 really good quality candidates ( there's been 3 quite a few times), but whether it comes down to one or two votes we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
its a bid of magic Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 All your predictions are plausable, but I'm not even going to hazard a guess, because I just haven't got a clue how the IOC members are going to vote come wednesday. This race is as tight as Anne Widdecombe's crotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PYRROS2004 Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 The city that gave them the most money, will take the games. Simple as it sounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eruedan Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 All your predictions are plausable, but I'm not even going to hazard a guess, because I just haven't got a clue how the IOC members are going to vote come wednesday.This race is as tight as Anne Widdecombe's crotch. LOL you just made me spit on my screen....and I have no idea who she is either. - - - - - - - - In 1993 Sydney picked up 8 of Manchester's 11 votes, if one of those votes decided to go for Beijing it would have been 44-44 and JAS would have cast his vote for Beijing. That's how close we came to Beijing 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
its a bid of magic Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 ...and I have no idea who she is either. - - - - - - - - In 1993 Sydney picked up 8 of Manchester's 11 votes, if one of those votes decided to go for Beijing it would have been 44-44 and JAS would have cast his vote for Beijing. That's how close we came to Beijing 2000. She's a Tory MP, but also a self confessed asexual - i.e. somebody who doesn't have sex. She's lost a little weight but If you saw her, you would think her reasons for being asexual are more by design than choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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