scotth Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 I know everybody got their predictions and everybody thinks they know whats going to happen, and I'm just another one but I'm so excited about this election and have been watching it pretty closely I had to have a guess. SO here goes. I'm really interested in listen to any thought out comments people think that will infulence the way the memebers will vote. Round 1 Paris 35 London 30 Madrid 15 NewYork 13 Moscow 6 99 Round 2 Paris 39 London 31 Madrid 19 New York 13 102 Round 3 Paris 44 London 40 Madrid 21 105 Round 4 Paris 57 London 50 107 This is my guess for the voting as it will go, I know I’ll stir some pots with this commentary but I really want to put in my two cents. I’m from Australia so I have no real particular bias in who wins, the whole the last 2 years I have thought Paris was favourite and a clear favourite to win, but this last couple of weeks, I’m just not sure. I think there is a lot of smart money going on London and there last minute surge is kind of reminding me of Sydney in 2000, the front runner starting to be accused of arrogance, a big political charismatic push. The bribe scandal of Paris may affect some votes, some IOC members are desperately keen to be seen as a clean organisation and if they can’t decide and there first choice is knocked out this may sway there votes. In the same way London’s debarcle of the 2005 Athletics champs will hurt them, this hasn’t been mentioned too much but there are a lot of Athletics people on the IOC and even if the press has forgotten about London 2005 some of them won’t have. Countering this will be Tony Blair and how adamant he is that the government back London. I believe this is going to be a close race and there are really only two horses in it that have a real chance, New York was behind as it was and the Stadium issue I believe will hurt them a lot, a lot of IOC members will not want any risks in the games after all the sweaty palms waiting for Athens, it has been fixed up a lot recently, but adding to there problems is a currently large amount of anti American sentiment in some regions of the world. As for Madrid, they have a strong bid, and are also coming home strongly, but I cant see any sound political reasons to attract votes over the stronger Paris & London bids, and if your bid isn’t as strong there has to be sentiment or political reasons to win you votes (Bejing 2008, politics; Athens over Rome, sentiment). As for Moscow, with the committee say they lacked detailed planning any slim chance they had went. Looking at how the rounds will pan out, I cant see London or NY getting many if any of Moscow’s votes, and they’ll get split up between Paris and Madrid. If NY go next, which I think they will, but Madrid might too, then I think London will pick up the majority of votes form them due to general Anglo Saxon common grounds ie anyone voting for NY would be generally doing it for more political reasons than bid quality and they are then more likely to side with London. Finally Madrid’s votes I’m just not sure, the whole alliance thing that has come up with London lately I cant see counting for much, as the IOC members have mind of the own and it’s a secret ballot, but I feel there a lot of reasons it could go either way there. In the end I think Paris is going to just hold off a coming home strong London, there previous attempts will count for a lot (but don’t forget Manchester and Briminghams bids as those relationships will be worth something), also their a lot of people feel Paris can pull off big events well and this is reflected in a very strong bid, but I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit surprised if London gets there in the end and would be disappointed that I didn’t listen to a little voice in my head to pick them. (All this said I think if Vancourver hadn’t won 2010 then Toronto would be hot favourite right now) Sorry it’s been such a long post, sorry I’ve discounted the other 3 bids so much, 2 of them a very strong and could win at others times, and I’m happy to eat my words later if I’m wrong. As for who I want to win I don’t mind really out of 4, probably don’t want to see it in Moscow though. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
its a bid of magic Posted July 4, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Good first post, welcome to GamesBid. You could very well be right in your analysis, guess we'll just have to wait and see. I agree with almost everything you said, other than I think London will just scrape it due to a late surge. Well that's what I hope will happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotth Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 thanks, it's definately getting interesting this bid, especially after 2008 was such a given, it's great to see what I think a competive race now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hlinur Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 ok, I'll play the game: 1ST ROUND Paris 29 London 27 Madrid 26 NYC 14 Moscow 7 2ND ROUND Paris 32 London 28 Madrid 30 NYC 12 3RD ROUND Paris 39 London 33 Madrid 33 4TH ROUND London 49 Madrid 56 5TH ROUND Paris 52 Madrid 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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