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how will the votes unravel?

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I know everybody got their predictions and everybody thinks they know whats going to happen, and I'm just another one but I'm so excited about this election and have been watching it pretty closely I had to have a guess. SO here goes. I'm really interested in listen to any thought out comments people think that will infulence the way the memebers will vote.

Round 1

Paris 35

London 30

Madrid 15

NewYork 13

Moscow 6


Round 2

Paris 39

London 31

Madrid 19

New York 13


Round 3

Paris 44

London 40

Madrid 21


Round 4

Paris 57

London 50


This is my guess for the voting as it will go, I know I’ll stir some pots with this commentary but I really want to put in my two cents. I’m from Australia so I have no real particular bias in who wins, the whole the last 2 years I have thought Paris was favourite and a clear favourite to win, but this last couple of weeks, I’m just not sure. I think there is a lot of smart money going on London and there last minute surge is kind of reminding me of Sydney in 2000, the front runner starting to be accused of arrogance, a big political charismatic push. The bribe scandal of Paris may affect some votes, some IOC members are desperately keen to be seen as a clean organisation and if they can’t decide and there first choice is knocked out this may sway there votes. In the same way London’s debarcle of the 2005 Athletics champs will hurt them, this hasn’t been mentioned too much but there are a lot of Athletics people on the IOC and even if the press has forgotten about London 2005 some of them won’t have. Countering this will be Tony Blair and how adamant he is that the government back London.

I believe this is going to be a close race and there are really only two horses in it that have a real chance, New York was behind as it was and the Stadium issue I believe will hurt them a lot, a lot of IOC members will not want any risks in the games after all the sweaty palms waiting for Athens, it has been fixed up a lot recently, but adding to there problems is a currently large amount of anti American sentiment in some regions of the world. As for Madrid, they have a strong bid, and are also coming home strongly, but I cant see any sound political reasons to attract votes over the stronger Paris & London bids, and if your bid isn’t as strong there has to be sentiment or political reasons to win you votes (Bejing 2008, politics; Athens over Rome, sentiment). As for Moscow, with the committee say they lacked detailed planning any slim chance they had went.

Looking at how the rounds will pan out, I cant see London or NY getting many if any of Moscow’s votes, and they’ll get split up between Paris and Madrid. If NY go next, which I think they will, but Madrid might too, then I think London will pick up the majority of votes form them due to general Anglo Saxon common grounds ie anyone voting for NY would be generally doing it for more political reasons than bid quality and they are then more likely to side with London. Finally Madrid’s votes I’m just not sure, the whole alliance thing that has come up with London lately I cant see counting for much, as the IOC members have mind of the own and it’s a secret ballot, but I feel there a lot of reasons it could go either way there.

In the end I think Paris is going to just hold off a coming home strong London, there previous attempts will count for a lot (but don’t forget Manchester and Briminghams bids as those relationships will be worth something), also their a lot of people feel Paris can pull off big events well and this is reflected in a very strong bid, but I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit surprised if London gets there in the end and would be disappointed that I didn’t listen to a little voice in my head to pick them. (All this said I think if Vancourver hadn’t won 2010 then Toronto would be hot favourite right now)

Sorry it’s been such a long post, sorry I’ve discounted the other 3 bids so much, 2 of them a very strong and could win at others times, and I’m happy to eat my words later if I’m wrong. As for who I want to win I don’t mind really out of  4, probably don’t want to see it in Moscow though.

What do you think?

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ok, I'll play the game:


Paris     29

London  27

Madrid   26

NYC      14

Moscow 7


Paris     32

London  28

Madrid   30

NYC      12


Paris     39

London  33

Madrid   33


London   49

Madrid    56


Paris     52

Madrid   55

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