Play the predicting game

[Hlinur]

Here we go!

1ST ROUND

Paris     29

London  27

Madrid   26

NYC      14

Moscow 7

2ND ROUND

Paris     32

London  28

Madrid   30

NYC      12

3RD ROUND

Paris     39

London  33

Madrid   33

4TH ROUND

London   49

Madrid    56

5TH ROUND

Paris     52

Madrid   55

[jeux]

This is THE FEAR of french official:Madrid could win thanks to anglo-saxon reported votes.It could be happen.

[Hlinur]

This is THE FEAR of french official:Madrid could win thanks to anglo-saxon reported votes.It could be happen.

but if Madrid fails, I would say that the spanish votes would tend to go to Paris.... everything can happen.

[nykfan845]

This is THE FEAR of french official:Madrid could win thanks to anglo-saxon reported votes.It could be happen.

but if Madrid fails, I would say that the spanish votes would tend to go to Paris.... everything can happen.

But does Madrid want to bid for the 2016 games?

[Hlinur]

This is THE FEAR of french official:Madrid could win thanks to anglo-saxon reported votes.It could be happen.

but if Madrid fails, I would say that the spanish votes would tend to go to Paris.... everything can happen.

But does Madrid want to bid for the 2016 games?

Madrid oficials have not said anything about 2016. Still, I think that you should´t vote based on that.

If Madrid fails, Madrid's votes could go to Paris based on similar latin culture and geografical proximity, or to NYC if they are still on the run. Latinamerican votes would go to NYC if Madrid fails. If NYC is already off, the votes could go mainly to Paris. I guess London will get their support from other areas: Oceania, Asia.

Just an opinion.

[Rafa]

i seriously doubt over 50 IOC members will vote for madrid and for the games to return to spain what message does that send out, secondly the maximum amount of voters in round one will be 99 and madrid will not gain more votes than either london or paris, although i see that madrid winning is just one extreme scenario everything is possible though, i only see madrid gaining about 20 or so votes, paris could lead round one with 35-40 votes followed by london 25-30 votes, as for new york i still find it absurd that after the ioc report is out they introduce new stadium plans im sorry but  IF i was an ioc member unless i was unethical and bribed to vote new york i just cannot put a vote of confidence into such last minute preparations whether or not the plans were good or not the other cities have been working for a while to develop their plans, this last minute business is absurd, and as for moscow.. well shame...

[Hlinur]

I think all bids have made their calculations already. They know the support they could have on the 1st round. Madrid expects to have between 26 and 30 votes.

[Alan in Montréal]

If Madrid fails (which they will this time) I suspect that their votes will go to NYC, not London.  

Here's why:

Do you think Paris will go for a 4th bid for 2016?  I don't think they'll try if they fail again, because by 2016, the Stadium will be 20 years old and other venues/land won't be available.

So if we assume Paris drops out, the race would be between London and Madrid at this point, for the 2016 Games in terms of a European host.  And if NYC gets 2012, there's a good chance that Europe will feel "entitled" to 2016.

I think Paris will not go for a 4th bid -- too much money and too many changes required to venues at that point.

So Madrid supporting NYC makes sense....

Of course, you could also argue that Madrid will support London for 2012, knowing 2016 will not go to Europe, then the UK will support Madrid for 2020.  Support from a previous Olympic host is very covetted.  That's also a likely scenario.

Latin American votes will not go to NYC -- a Games in North American in 2012 reduces the chances that South America gets the Games in 2016 and I think one of their cities will make a bid for 2016.

Or maybe this is all crap.

[Map]

Ther's afamous phrase in spanish which is just ebtter for these moments: Sólo sé que nosé nada. I only know I don't know nothing.

In Spain everybody speaks that the top3 scenario will be Madrid with Paris and London. Lots of people are saying that if Madrid arrive sin the final we can recieve votes from both Paris or London supporters because they don't want each other to win. That's when Madrid can win.

I must say it could happen but who knows?

[zoltan]

the french fear one thing : to be in the final round againts Madrid

Paris vs London -->  Paris

Paris vs Madrid  --> ?  Anglo saxon members will vote against Paris, so they will vote Madrid...

[Alan in Montréal]

the french fear one thing : to be in the final round againts Madrid

Paris vs London -->  Paris

Paris vs Madrid  --> ?  Anglo saxon members will vote against Paris, so they will vote Madrid...

Personally, I think the final three will be Paris, London and NYC, and when NYC goes, their votes will go to London and not Paris.

I think Madrid will be the victim of the fact that they are the 3rd European bid in this race and there still will be a push to keep NYC in the race.

[Alan in Montréal]

My final prediction is as follows:

• There will be four ballots to decide this race.
  
• Moscow will drop out on the first ballot.
  
• Madrid will drop out on the second ballot
  
• NYC will drop out on the third ballot.
  
• London will beat Paris by 12 votes in the final ballot.
  

We'll see how close I come...

[Kenadian]

When it all starts tomorrow, there will be no such thing as a supporter....just voters.

Paris will win on the third ballot by a close but comfortable margin over London and New York.

[mexico1968]

blah blah blah...

[MercifulZeus!]

Ever the optimist, I hope you're right. Not by 12 votes though. Probably about 5.

[Rafa]

believe me in singapore the thing paris are scared of is london stealing the show, forgot about madrid new york seems to be getting some attention too...

[Good luck to all]

If Madrid fails (which they will this time) I suspect that their votes will go to NYC, not London.  

Here's why:

Do you think Paris will go for a 4th bid for 2016?  I don't think they'll try if they fail again, because by 2016, the Stadium will be 20 years old and other venues/land won't be available.

So if we assume Paris drops out, the race would be between London and Madrid at this point, for the 2016 Games in terms of a European host.  And if NYC gets 2012, there's a good chance that Europe will feel "entitled" to 2016.

I think Paris will not go for a 4th bid -- too much money and too many changes required to venues at that point.

So Madrid supporting NYC makes sense....

Of course, you could also argue that Madrid will support London for 2012, knowing 2016 will not go to Europe, then the UK will support Madrid for 2020.  Support from a previous Olympic host is very covetted.  That's also a likely scenario.

Latin American votes will not go to NYC -- a Games in North American in 2012 reduces the chances that South America gets the Games in 2016 and I think one of their cities will make a bid for 2016.

Or maybe this is all crap.

The votes of the failing bids dont have the name of the failing bid for next rounds.

To think the votes of Spain could go to NYC, just cause 2016 would be possible with NYC winning the 2012 is simply a very surface thought.

Most votes for madrid could come from latinamerican members.

But ARE THOSE INTERESTED IN A NYC WIN?

I dont think so.

:wink:

Its just a "dont loose the ilusion" thought of the NYC bid, in my opinion.

[SOlympiadsW]

well it is impossible to predict who many will vote for in the first place (i.e. you can't say SA will vote for Madrid, etc.), and you REALLY can not predict who their second and third choices are...everybody will vote in their own way....

but I agree with earlier posts....it will come down to NYC,London, and Paris most likely with Paris winning by a close, yet comfortable margin

[Kenadian]

Exactly.  The person casting a vote for a particular city is not from that city or that country.  So if their first choice drops on the first ballot, they switch to their second choice.  They may not even know who that is until they are faced with that choice.

They are not bound to vote for any city because of common language or deals made behind closed doors because the result will never be known.  Unless of course they made a big deal and then not one vote was cast for that city.

But the second choice votes of the first two cities to drop will be the deciding factors.  Those are most likely Moscow and Madrid.

To predict who they vote for next, you have to think "Why did they vote Madrid or Moscow in the first place?".  How will that impact their next choice?  Did they like the compactness?  The cultural aspect?  Or is their vote strategic hinging on a future hope of hosting?  Or maybe there's a hooker in their room and they just want to get upstairs quickly so they vote for who they think will win and get it over with.

Won't know until it unfolds.

[Ahsing888]

Has the NYC New Stadium Plan received a technical evaluation yet?

If not, NYC should be thrown out in the first round.

I still believe the beautiful San Francisco Bay Area is the best place for the summer Olympics.  And it's the only logical choice in North America, finally an Olympics with good weather, everyone is comfortable, even the air smells good.  

South America deserves an Olympics, and only Argentina and Brazil can conceivably do it.  So I'm rooting for London, Paris, and hoping for a battle for 2016 between San Fran and South America.

[Alan in Montréal]

The IOC approved all bids for the vote tomorrow.  That means the NYC stadium is not an issue any longer.

But to answer other posts, remember in the past that in the first round, certain cities got a "pity" vote for their effort.  Look at Instanbul, which had a lot of votes in the first round of the 2008 bid, then quickly died.

I think, to be honest, the same thing is going to happen to Madrid. I believe it has a good bid, but it's just not on the same level, for other reasons, as London and Paris, including the fact that Spain hosted in 1992 -- only 4 Summer Games ago now.

Madrid will get a good amount of votes in recognition of the quality of its bid, but they will be gone after the 2nd round.  

We'll see if I'm correct in my assumptions, and yes, delegates from a host nation that is knocked-out definitely have a strategy as to where their votes will go if their city gets eliminated.

I wouldn't be surprised actually if also Paris gets knocked-out now and London and NYC end up fighting it out!

[Robert Henson]

The IOC approved all bids for the vote tomorrow.  That means the NYC stadium is not an issue any longer.

But to answer other posts, remember in the past that in the first round, certain cities got a "pity" vote for their effort.  Look at Instanbul, which had a lot of votes in the first round of the 2008 bid, then quickly died.

I think, to be honest, the same thing is going to happen to Madrid. I believe it has a good bid, but it's just not on the same level, for other reasons, as London and Paris, including the fact that Spain hosted in 1992 -- only 4 Summer Games ago now.

Madrid will get a good amount of votes in recognition of the quality of its bid, but they will be gone after the 2nd round.  

We'll see if I'm correct in my assumptions, and yes, delegates from a host nation that is knocked-out definitely have a strategy as to where their votes will go if their city gets eliminated.

I wouldn't be surprised actually if also Paris gets knocked-out now and London and NYC end up fighting it out!

Won't the "pity" vote go to Moscow, not Madrid?

[SOlympiadsW]

Has the NYC New Stadium Plan received a technical evaluation yet?

If not, NYC should be thrown out in the first round.

I still believe the beautiful San Francisco Bay Area is the best place for the summer Olympics.  And it's the only logical choice in North America, finally an Olympics with good weather, everyone is comfortable, even the air smells good.  

South America deserves an Olympics, and only Argentina and Brazil can conceivably do it.  So I'm rooting for London, Paris, and hoping for a battle for 2016 between San Fran and South America.

yes NYC's stadium has been approved and accepted by the IOC and proper federations.....you should have read the article on the front of GB.com before making your post....

as for South America and San Francisco for 2016, both are possible, but unlikely....because the USA will most likely go with NYC for 2016 and it is looking like 2020 will be the real year for a new fronteir such as South America or Africa....

[Alan in Montréal]

Won't the "pity" vote go to Moscow, not Madrid?

I don't think so.  Moscow will go out on the 1st round because it's just a crappy bid and the IOC has no intention of going there.

Madrid's pity vote will still be on the first round.  Spanish hopes will rise, then be dashed when the 2nd round results come in.

Isn't this fun?

[Citius]

If I might make a final post before the election begins:

I agree that Moscow will go first, and NYC is likely to follow after the second round.

I think there will be four rounds of voting; almost certainly there will be at least three.

When London, Paris and Madrid face each other, who knows?  I'm sure that others here have a much better feel for things than I do.  I do not rule out Madrid being in the top two in such a contest, and agree that they would slaughter Paris in a fourth and final round.

My feeling increasingly is that London has the best chance.  They will not lead in the first round of voting, but could gain enough support from Moscow and NYC voters to defeat their rivals.

A (very) tentative prediction for the first round is:

Madrid 20

Moscow 11

NYC 16

London 23

Paris 29

After this the votes will be flying everywhere.

I wish the best of luck to all cities participating in the election, and hope that the IOC will properly consider its options and come to the right decision.