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Now, Who Do You Expect To Win?


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Hi, i'm new here and not a native english speaker so excuse me if my spelling isn't correct. I'll try to express myself as clerly as possible.

So first of all, i'd like to say that everyone of the 4 cities is capable of hosting magnificent SOG on 2016. I just wouldn't rule out Madrid because of all this geographical stuff. Sure it's not good for Madrid's bid to have the previous summer games being held in London, but i believe other aspects should be taken into consideration too, like technical or financial aspects, more than ever right now when there is an economical "crisis" all around the world, the CIO should look for a city able to garantee the games will be held with no problems at all regarding this.

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Ten reasons why Madrid will win

Reason 3: Geography and voting system

- Geography:

* Madrid is the only capital of a great country that has not hosted any games.

* More important than continents, in our globalized world, are cultures. After the magnificent representation of the asian culture that was Beijinn 2008 and the Anglo-Saxon that will take place in London 2012, it's time for the latin and mediterranean culture.

* The IOC has been very clear: there is not a law that implies rotation of continents. It simply will win the best bid. Nawal El Moutawakel and Gilbert Felli made it enought clear. (I don't know why most of peolple in this forum discard Madrid only because of these argument. Surely because they don't have any other technical and serious argument)

- Voting system:

I think voting system is one of the key aspects for Madrid to win in Copenhaguen. I will explain why. Lets take a look at what happenned in Singapore IOC session to understand what can happen in october. In 2005 points given to each bid by IOC were as follows:

Paris — scored 8.5

Madrid — scored 8.3

London — scored 7.6

New York City — scored 7.5

Moscow — scored 6.5

Provisional points given to 2016 bids by IOC (will not change significantly from points that will be given in september) are as follows:

Tokio - 8,6 points

Madrid - 8,4 points

Chicago - 7,4 points

Río de Janeiro - 6,8 points

What happened in the voting process in last bidding?

Round 1

London - 22

Paris - 21

Madrid - 20

New York City - 19

Moscow - 15

* Moscow was out. That's comprensible it was the weekest bid. Madrid support: some arab countries, latin american ones (very good relationships)

and some european.

Round 2

London - 27

Paris - 21

Madrid - 32!!!

New York City - 16

* New York was out, second worse. Spectacular increase in Madrid votes because of good relationships with Moscow and and supporters.

Round 3

London - 39

Paris - 33

Madrid - 31

* Madrid was out. What happened?? In that moment there where very tight relationships between Spain and USA (Zapatero and Bush) because of the retirement of Spanish troops from Irak. So north american members and supporter did not vote Madrid. Furthermore, Madrid should have tied with Paris in the third round of voting, but did not do so because Greek member Lambis Nikolaou pressed the wrong button.

What will happen 2nd October in Denmark:

Round 1

Rio out. I'm sorry but they are the weekest. Doesn't matter South America had never organized the games: there were other four failed attempts in 1936, 1940, 2004 and 2012.

Round 2

Rio point will go to Madrid in the mayority because they have cultural affinity and very good relationships. So Chicago out.

Round 3

Chicago supporters will clearly vote Madrid because USA don't want all europeans countries led by Paris again in 2016. So Tokio loses, Madrid wins ;)

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Ten reasons why Madrid will win

Reason 3: Geography and voting system

- Geography:

* Madrid is the only capital of a great country that has not hosted any games.

* More important than continents, in our globalized world, are cultures. After the magnificent representation of the asian culture that was Beijinn 2008 and the Anglo-Saxon that will take place in London 2012, it's time for the latin and mediterranean culture.

* The IOC has been very clear: there is not a law that implies rotation of continents. It simply will win the best bid. Nawal El Moutawakel and Gilbert Felli made it enought clear. (I don't know why most of peolple in this forum discard Madrid only because of these argument. Surely because they don't have any other technical and serious argument)

- Voting system:

I think voting system is one of the key aspects for Madrid to win in Copenhaguen. I will explain why. Lets take a look at what happenned in Singapore IOC session to understand what can happen in october. In 2005 points given to each bid by IOC were as follows:

Paris — scored 8.5

Madrid — scored 8.3

London — scored 7.6

New York City — scored 7.5

Moscow — scored 6.5

Provisional points given to 2016 bids by IOC (will not change significantly from points that will be given in september) are as follows:

Tokio - 8,6 points

Madrid - 8,4 points

Chicago - 7,4 points

Río de Janeiro - 6,8 points

What happened in the voting process in last bidding?

Round 1

London - 22

Paris - 21

Madrid - 20

New York City - 19

Moscow - 15

* Moscow was out. That's comprensible it was the weekest bid. Madrid support: some arab countries, latin american ones (very good relationships)

and some european.

Round 2

London - 27

Paris - 21

Madrid - 32!!!

New York City - 16

* New York was out, second worse. Spectacular increase in Madrid votes because of good relationships with Moscow and and supporters.

Round 3

London - 39

Paris - 33

Madrid - 31

* Madrid was out. What happened?? In that moment there where very tight relationships between Spain and USA (Zapatero and Bush) because of the retirement of Spanish troops from Irak. So north american members and supporter did not vote Madrid. Furthermore, Madrid should have tied with Paris in the third round of voting, but did not do so because Greek member Lambis Nikolaou pressed the wrong button.

What will happen 2nd October in Denmark:

Round 1

Rio out. I'm sorry but they are the weekest. Doesn't matter South America had never organized the games: there were other four failed attempts in 1936, 1940, 2004 and 2012.

Round 2

Rio point will go to Madrid in the mayority because they have cultural affinity and very good relationships. So Chicago out.

Round 3

Chicago supporters will clearly vote Madrid because USA don't want all europeans countries led by Paris again in 2016. So Tokio loses, Madrid wins ;)

Well, I don't know if you know but South America OBVIOUSLY will vote for Rio. Rio has support from ODESUR. Brazil don't have "cultural affinity" with Spain. We are totally differents than spanish people. Portugal will vote for Rio too, we have ACOLOP (portuguese language countries) support. My other point, why do you think that europpean countries will vote for Madri?? This could hurt the chances for Europe to 2020.

Madri will out first, the final race is Rio x Chicago.

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The IOC has been very clear: there is not a law that implies rotation of continents.

No, there isn't and never has been. But despite the absense of this law there haven't been back to back games on the same continent for decades. You go into great detail trying to see how the history of the last bidding cycle favours Madrid, but leave out the most obvious fact from modern Olympic history - the IOC spreads the games between continents; whether consciously or not, this is what has happened.

The elephant in the room won't go away, no matter how much Madrid supporters want to believe that it's about cultures, not continents.

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Well, I don't know if you know but South America OBVIOUSLY will vote for Rio. Rio has support from ODESUR. Brazil don't have "cultural affinity" with Spain. We are totally differents than spanish people. Portugal will vote for Rio too, we have ACOLOP (portuguese language countries) support. My other point, why do you think that europpean countries will vote for Madri?? This could hurt the chances for Europe to 2020.

Madri will out first, the final race is Rio x Chicago.

Well Portugal wil love see Marid Wining more that Rio why?

1st we will meka better comunications with Lisbon in train

2nd we are bidding together for 2018 World cup

3rd all what happen in Peninsula Iberca is good for we three Andorra Portugal and Spain, language think is notso important to 5000 km or more... the can go to madrid in car an come back at ome in 1 day to see olimpics...

4th we are brothers same contry practically

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Provisional points given to 2016 bids by IOC (will not change significantly from points that will be given in september) are as follows.

Points won't be given in September. Points are only used to evaluate the Applicant Cities, not during the Candidate Cities evaluation.

Furthermore, Madrid should have tied with Paris in the third round of voting, but did not do so because Greek member Lambis Nikolaou pressed the wrong button.

False. Nikolaou did not vote in the third round. Had he voted for Madrid, Paris would still have been ahead of Madrid by one vote.

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Points won't be given in September. Points are only used to evaluate the Applicant Cities, not during the Candidate Cities evaluation.

False. Nikolaou did not vote in the third round. Had he voted for Madrid, Paris would still have been ahead of Madrid by one vote.

Htes he asked to PResident to change the vote and PResident said no cause they were all not kids loool ad it is vox populi

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No, there isn't and never has been. But despite the absense of this law there haven't been back to back games on the same continent for decades. You go into great detail trying to see how the history of the last bidding cycle favours Madrid, but leave out the most obvious fact from modern Olympic history - the IOC spreads the games between continents; whether consciously or not, this is what has happened.

The elephant in the room won't go away, no matter how much Madrid supporters want to believe that it's about cultures, not continents.

It as a huge elephant that will only disappear if the Spanish delegation works its arse off and convinces enough IOC members. Same with all other bids really, though Madrid's delegation has probably double the work than it's American counterparts.

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Well Portugal wil love see Marid Wining more that Rio why?

1st we will meka better comunications with Lisbon in train

2nd we are bidding together for 2018 World cup

3rd all what happen in Peninsula Iberca is good for we three Andorra Portugal and Spain, language think is notso important to 5000 km or more... the can go to madrid in car an come back at ome in 1 day to see l olimpics...

4th we are brothers same contry practically

Well, i think portuguese people wouls preffer Rio instead of Madrid. Two reasons:

- Portugal "hates" Spain in the same way spaniards "hate" french people. Why? historical reasons, but specially because they have a litle inferiority complex respect to Spain. I know what i'm talking about, i have lots of portuguese friends who told/showed me.

- Portugal would preffer to boost their language, despite that portuguese from Brazil is very different from the iberic one.

- Portuguese people don't care about the AVE or TGV between Lisbon a Madrid. They think that's stupid to waste so much money on that project.

- Maybe politicians do think that everything good happening in the Iberian Peninsula is good for Portugal. But people most of the portuguese people don't mind. They preffer to look to the Atlantic and to UK, most than to Spain an the rest of Europe. Like allways in their history.

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Htes he asked to PResident to change the vote and PResident said no cause they were all not kids loool ad it is vox populi

Samaranch recordó que de los dos votos que le faltaron a Madrid para superar o empatar con París, "uno de ellos fue una equivocación de un gran amigo de España, (el griego) Lambis Nikolau, y el otro de alguien que no votó".

"No saben aún lo cerca que se han quedado", dijo, dando por hecho que en una hipotética final Madrid hubiera superado tanto a Londres como a París.

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Well, i think portuguese people wouls preffer Rio instead of Madrid. Two reasons:

- Portugal "hates" Spain in the same way spaniards "hate" french people. Why? historical reasons, but specially because they have a litle inferiority complex respect to Spain. I know what i'm talking about, i have lots of portuguese friends who told/showed me.

- Portugal would preffer to boost their language, despite that portuguese from Brazil is very different from the iberic one.

- Portuguese people don't care about the AVE or TGV between Lisbon a Madrid. They think that's stupid to waste so much money on that project.

- Maybe politicians do think that everything good happening in the Iberian Peninsula is good for Portugal. But people most of the portuguese people don't mind. They preffer to look to the Atlantic and to UK, most than to Spain an the rest of Europe. Like allways in their history.

Sorry, i forgot to say that, however, Portugal is more an unknown neighbour for Spain, than Spain for Portugal. It's weird...

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It as a huge elephant that will only disappear if the Spanish delegation works its arse off and convinces enough IOC members. Same with all other bids really, though Madrid's delegation has probably double the work than it's American counterparts.

They can work all they can -- but history and geography are against them. There are 3 equally good bids in areas where it has been awhile since the Olympics were held, so the Olympics will again stay in Europe? Just doesn't make sense to me.

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They can work all they can -- but history and geography are against them. There are 3 equally good bids in areas where it has been awhile since the Olympics were held, so the Olympics will again stay in Europe? Just doesn't make sense to me.

It doesn't make sense, but in many aspects the IOC has never made sense anyway. In 2012 the Games seemed to be Paris' in the last round but they got beaten by London. In the same way that Sydney won over Beijing when everyone was expecting the Chinese to beat them.

I still believe that there is a way out. Not all IOC members will want yet another set of Olympics in the US nor will like to risk a Brazilian bid. In the same way, as I've said before, I think that the battle between Rio and Chicago is going to bring less good than evil and will kick out one of them in the first or second rounds, depending on how close they are. Only one of them will make it to the final round, and if Madrid does it's job correctly, it will be there as well.

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Htes he asked to PResident to change the vote and PResident said no cause they were all not kids loool ad it is vox populi

No, he complained because he didn't have time to vote and Rogge refused to re-open the vote because it was the third round and therefore every voting member should have known by then how long they had to vote. Those are the facts.

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