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Now, Who Do You Expect To Win?


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Actually, we were about 250 mil around 1988. We reached the 300 mil mark sometime last year.

Really, the next logical European country to host Summer would be France. W/in the last 50 years, it's been -- in order: Italy, Germany,* Russia,* Spain, (Greece), and then the U.K. Why should it be Spain again?

* 2 countries badly battered by the last continental war.

Are there 300 million people in the Phillippines, Baron? OMG! LOL

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Are there 300 million people in the Phillippines, Baron? OMG! LOL

Oh, very funny indeed. Gosh, you just seem to be too dumb to follow a simple thread.

The Philippines is my old country of some 40 years ago. If you can't fathom that simple fact, then I don't see how you can logically prognosticate the chances of the 2016 cities, thorb. I guess you don't meet too many people who come from other countries, do you? :(

I've never turned on the IGNORE feature here. It's time for you to be my first guinea pig. :lol:

I'll never have to see your juvenile posts nor your ugly face again. :lol: Ciao.

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Oh, very funny indeed. Gosh, you just seem to be too dumb to follow a simple thread.

The Philippines is my old country of some 40 years ago. If you can't fathom that simple fact, then I don't see how you can logically prognosticate the chances of the 2016 cities, thorb. I guess you don't meet too many people who come from other countries, do you? :(

I've never turned on the IGNORE feature here. It's time for you to be my first guinea pig. :lol:

I'll never have to see your juvenile posts nor your ugly face again. :lol: Ciao.

Thanks! :)

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With illegals the US is about 320,000,000.

It is too soon for Spain, hosting between 1992 and 2016 is much to close for a country of Spain's size. You cannot compare the USA and Spain, the Americans are still the driving force in world economics, this financial crisis certainly proves that. The IOC needs to routinely return to the US to make sure the market is kept alive and interested in Olympic sport. The USA also contributes the vast majority of the IOC's expenditures, its not Spain or France or whomever that contributes this and keeps the Olympic movement from going back into financial ruin. For countries other the US, every 40 to 50 years is about what they can expect.

And don't forget, Los Angeles was the only city that bid in 1984 and those where the games that saved the movement. Atlanta was an anomaly because of the four English bids in the race and an understanding between them to keep the games out of Greece and for good reason even 8 years later it still was a mistake. If it had been Melbourne, Toronto or Manchester versus Athens in the final round, all 3 of them would have come out the winner. Atlanta just had better bribes, going to Stanford is more attractive than the University of Manchester or Toronto.

Also comparing winter and summer hostings is stupid and illogical because of the different arrays of countries that can host. SLC in 2002 was also bribery/pay back for SLC getting screwed over in 1998 to even better bribery from the Japanese.

As for NYC losing in 2012, the 60+ European members of the IOC and the stadium fiasco were the reasons the US and also ill will because of Iraq.

As for who is going to win, its between Chicago and Rio, even though I want Tokyo to win.

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I agree that the general sentiment that Western Europe would host combined with the NYC stadium fiasco were the main reasons for NYC's loss. But I can't believe "ill will because of Iraq" was really a reason. If Iraq was really a factor, London would not be hosting 2012.

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Well... It is a very tight race this time! I have no idea about an evident frontrunner and can hardly predict anything.

Nevertheless, I have done some personal calculations based on my very simple acknowledgements about the IOC an dare to predict the following

If Rio drops first, then Chicago will win

If Madrid drops first, then Rio will win

If Tokyo drops first, then Rio will win

If Chicago drops first, then Madrid will win

As you can see, I don't see Tokyo winning, Paris-style. These are the American games and both Chicago and Rio can just depending on the way the European members will vote on final rounds. The only and very unlikely way for Madrid to win is if Chicago fails on first round, which is very very unlikely.

Greetings from Rome!

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And don't forget that Perreira the Piranha will become the Official Mascot!! :lol::lol:

For sure...

But we can't forget the also memorable Chicago's Mascot:

caponny2016.jpg

CAPONNY, THE DUCK

Did you see that he's sponsored by Budweiser, a beer owned by a Brazilian Company.

Pereira is not alone anymore!

LOL

Saudações from Rio!

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  • 3 weeks later...

I meant to post in this thread but ended up putting it in the wromg place :( Sorry, it was late last night but here's what I meant to post here:

Hi smile.gif

This is my first post here. I hope to be able to post and contribute here in the time leading up to the IOC vote in October! I will be very respectful of everyone's opinions. I'm not much into drama or putting others down.

First of all, good luck to everyone in each of the 4 finalist cities for 2016. I'm in the Chicago area so naturally I've read up a lot on it's bid and the process in general. Very interesting, fascinating process. I've also read up a little on the other 3 bids and hope to have a chance to skim through all 4 bid books soon.

One thing is certain. This vote will be one of the most interesting in quite some time. All 4 bids are very very strong and all 4 cities bids are very impressive.

This is just my opinion but right now I think this is going to be between Chicago and Rio. Madrid's bid is one hell of an impressive bid, but with Athens having hosted in 2004 and London about to host in 2012, I can't see how Madrid's going to be selected. If they get picked it will be a shocker that's for sure. It's much too soon for Europe to be hosting again. So in the first round of voting I expect Madrid to be the first to go.

Tokyo's a more difficult thing to predict. Tokyo's already hosted once but that was a long time ago. However, Tokyo's chances are likely to be hurt not by it's bid or their plans but by the fact Beijing just hosted last year. If Tokyo gets picked it will be because of it's very ambitious plan and whether they can afford to pay for it or not.

The one thing that may or may not hurt Rio is it hosting the World Cup in 2014. If they do win this bid they will have a hell of a job ahead of them. Not only hosting both but on time, on budget and hosting both safely. Rio's bid is the one I know the least about. They could also be hurt if the locations of the different events are far apart from each other. If it wasn't for the whole World Cup thing I'd say Rio would probably get it.

Chicago is a fascinating story and extremely fascinating bid. 2 years ago I thought "Don't do this Daley there's no way you could possibly win" But he along with the Chicago 2016 committee have shocked me to the point of speechless. They mean business and Daley REALLY wants these Olympics! I know the Evaluation team needs to visit the other 3 cities yet but there was nothing but praise while they were here last week. They can see Chicago wants it. I think it will come down to if Chicago can do it on time and on budget. More on budget than anything else. Other articles I've read have had generally positive things to say about this bid.

The final vote will be very close and I expect it to be between Chicago and Rio. Personally I'm expecting Chicago to beat out Rio but not by many votes at all. It may be only a difference of a couple of votes. If Chicago does win I expect the IOC to give Daley and the Olympic committee a very stern warning along the lines of "You will deliver what you are promising..everything. On time and as close to on budget as possble". I'm pulling for Chicago smile.gif

Just my thoughts.

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welcome bh! I can't really say who this race is between - maybe Rio vs Chicago, or Tokyo vs Chicago or Rio vs Tokyo. I have become a bit more optimistic about Chicago's bid though, and I truly hope they can pull out a victory in Copenhagen.

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Ok......as a personal rule of law I don't lie to myself.....it spares me a whole lot of suffering. Form all the data that I have gather so far as it pertains to the IOC inspection visits? Tokyo is outfront by lightyears! this isn't wishful thinking it just is reality.

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Ok......as a personal rule of law I don't lie to myself.....it spares me a whole lot of suffering. Form all the data that I have gather so far as it pertains to the IOC inspection visits? Tokyo is outfront by lightyears! this isn't wishful thinking it just is reality.

Uhmm...except you forget the history of previous Summer hosts trying to win again...just in the last 30 years...

Amsterdam - failed for 1992

Athens - failed for 1996

Berlin - failed for 2000

Los Angeles, failed 1952, 1956, 1976 and 1980

Melbourne - failed for 1996

Moscow failed for 2012

Paris - failed for 1992, 2008 and 2012

Rome - failed for 2004

Stockholm failed for 2004

Tokyo - failed for 2016?? Could be.

The odds aren't good for Tokyo!! :P

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No barron, I support rio too but c'mon......let's not lie to ourselves here......seriously? Tokyo promises the most technologically advanced games ever!

Yeah, right. If Pokemon and Miss Kitty ruled the world... and Chicago, Madrid and Rio will still be using pneumatic tubes and analogue technology.

I see you like the little gadgets and gizmos...which are of little use to the largely senior IOC membership.

The give-aways will either go to the IOC junior staff or to the grandchildren of the IOC members.

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No barron, I support rio too but c'mon......let's not lie to ourselves here......seriously? Tokyo promises the most technologically advanced games ever!

Isn't every host the more technologically advanced than the previous one?

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welcome bh! I can't really say who this race is between - maybe Rio vs Chicago, or Tokyo vs Chicago or Rio vs Tokyo. I have become a bit more optimistic about Chicago's bid though, and I truly hope they can pull out a victory in Copenhagen.

I think they'll pull the victory off in Copenhagen. Daley, Obama and maybe some others will be there so I'm starting to think they won't have much trouble getting the 60 votes :)

Where do I get one of the Chicago 2016 siggys so that I can show my support for Chicago's bid?

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I thin that's very optimistic bh......very. But the reality is that Tokyo appears to have done a "perfect 10" on the persuasion exercise routine.

Hmmmm. Look at what Tokyo, as a previous host, is up against...

Amsterdam - failed for 1992

Athens - failed for 1996

Berlin - failed for 2000

Los Angeles, failed 1952, 1956, 1976 and 1980

Melbourne - failed for 1996

Moscow failed for 2012

Paris - failed for 1992, 2008 and 2012

Rome - failed for 2004

Stockholm failed for 2004

Tokyo - failed for 2016?? Could be.

The odds aren't good for Tokyo. It's too soon after Beijing as Madrid will be TOO SOON after London. Don't these cities think? :blink:

Tokyo might/not get it on another try.

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Haven't we been here a million times already Barron? Where in the IOC rule book does it say that the Olympics shall be awarded on a rotational basis? There is still no point to that argument. I want Rio to win. I think if it does, it will be the most stunning summer games location just as vancouver is, to date the most tsunnig winter games location but, remember that the IOC NEEDS FINANCIAL GUANRANTEES! Especially in a time like this. For me, it is a Rio versus Tokyo bid shut out war. Tokyo, as of today...this day has the edge. I want Rio to present a thoroughly stunning bid during the IOC visit to change the current reality of Tokyo's dominance.

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Haven't we been here a million times already Barron? Where in the IOC rule book does it say that the Olympics shall be awarded on a rotational basis? There is still no point to that argument. I want Rio to win. I think if it does, it will be the most stunning summer games location just as vancouver is, to date the most tsunnig winter games location but, remember that the IOC NEEDS FINANCIAL GUANRANTEES! Especially in a time like this. For me, it is a Rio versus Tokyo bid shut out war. Tokyo, as of today...this day has the edge. I want Rio to present a thoroughly stunning bid during the IOC visit to change the current reality of Tokyo's dominance.

Financial guarantees? What are they talking about? They're talking in parables. It will only lose money if it goes to the most DISADVANTAGED time zone for US TV -- and that would either be Tokyo or Madrid.

The last 3 Games in the US have made money -- a total of some $290 million. What other guarantees does the IOC want?

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Umm....barron....again your making the mistake that so many other of my fellow american countrymen make. It really isn't solely about "US" anymore in case the first decade of the millennium missed you. The IOC has, first and foremost, an obligation to the athletes to ensure that the highest possible standard of facility environments are on offer during the olympics. Such facilities can only be achieved by money plus technology which, for right now? equals Tokyo. US tv just isn't cutting it like it used to......global following is. You better catch up with the rest of the world....you r like so totally far back right now. lol.

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Just wanted to add my perspective regarding financial guarantees or lack thereof and the predictability of cost overruns. I think in light of this global economic crisis, it should also give the IOC the opportunity to reformulate their requirements regarding financial guarantees. Three out of four cities' national governments have thrown themselves to the IOC touting their financial feasibility with full government support, but yet they still have to address cost overruns and the inevitability of constructing white elephants. Sure, all four cities are susceptible to costoverruns, and Chicago is no exception. But let's look at this logically with the current financial crisis in mind. Full 100% guarantees from national governments are basically blank checks. This implies that freespending is the norm. Build whatever you want, the government will support it. Now, if your finances and sources are limited and controlled, it puts pressure on the organizing committee to determine which project would have the most effect and cost the least. Every cent is accounted for and scrutinized by the public as well as the "investors" in the games; thus, minimizing the construction of white elephants. I don't think the IOC should tackle white elephants without reanalyzing financial government guarantees. Budget responsibility can be attained when we eliminate the notion that whatever it takes, whatever the cost at the end, we don't have to worry because taxpayers would save us. I wouldn't entirely eliminate Chicago from the competition because of its lack of financial guarantees. The economic crisis may be a good thing for Chicago, now that construction companies have lowered costs just to stay afloat and ride out this current recession. In this case, IF Chicago were to get the games, the committee can command very low construction costs from companies desperate for jobs.

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