Soaring Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 I know many have aired out who they want to win, but lets get some clearer answers about who do you "expect" to win: I actually think Rio is rising to be more of a competitive challenger. Originally I thought it was going to be a showdown between Chicago and Tokyo, but I am not so sure now. I kind of view the three as "equally competitive." I went through the IOC members, and have them listed by COUNTRY and REGION. While one can't automatically assume one region will completely go to a certain city, predictions can be made: NORTH AFRICA - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Algeria Egypt Egypt Morocco Morocco Tunisia AFRICA - CHICAGO WINNER Côte d'Ivoire Cameroon Gambia Guinea Kenya Namibia South Africa Senegal Uganda Zambia ASIA - CHICAGO OR RIO WINNER? China China Chinese Taipei Democratic People's Republic of Korea Hong-Kong Japan Japan Korea Korea SE ASIA - TOKYO WINNER? India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand EUROPE - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Austria Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Finland Finland France France Great Britain Great Britain Great Britain Germany Germany Germany Greece Hungary Hungary Ireland Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Liechtenstein Luxembourg Monaco Netherlands Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Russia Russia Russia Spain Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Ukraine Ukraine MIDDLE EAST - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Israel Saudi Arabia Lebanon Pakistan Qatar Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates NORTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Aruba Barbados Canada Canada Cuba Cuba Mexico Mexico Puerto Rico United States United States SOUTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Brazil Brazil Colombia Guatemala Panama Peru Uruguay OCEANIA - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Australia Australia Australia Fiji So let me know who you think will win, and what regions will go for who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorbr Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 I know many have aired out who they want to win, but lets get some clearer answers about who do you "expect" to win:I actually think Rio is rising to be more of a competitive challenger. Originally I thought it was going to be a showdown between Chicago and Tokyo, but I am not so sure now. I kind of view the three as "equally competitive." I went through the IOC members, and have them listed by COUNTRY and REGION. While one can't automatically assume one region will completely go to a certain city, predictions can be made: NORTH AFRICA - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Algeria Egypt Egypt Morocco Morocco Tunisia AFRICA - CHICAGO WINNER Côte d'Ivoire Cameroon Gambia Guinea Kenya Namibia South Africa Senegal Uganda Zambia ASIA - CHICAGO OR RIO WINNER? China China Chinese Taipei Democratic People's Republic of Korea Hong-Kong Japan Japan Korea Korea SE ASIA - TOKYO WINNER? India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand EUROPE - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Austria Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Finland Finland France France Great Britain Great Britain Great Britain Germany Germany Germany Greece Hungary Hungary Ireland Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Liechtenstein Luxembourg Monaco Netherlands Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Russia Russia Russia Spain Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Ukraine Ukraine MIDDLE EAST - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Israel Saudi Arabia Lebanon Pakistan Qatar Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates NORTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Aruba Barbados Canada Canada Cuba Cuba Mexico Mexico Puerto Rico United States United States SOUTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Brazil Brazil Colombia Guatemala Panama Peru Uruguay OCEANIA - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Australia Australia Australia Fiji So let me know who you think will win, and what regions will go for who. Just a question: Why do you think Africa will go with Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted March 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Obama, and Capetown 2020 factored mostly in my decision. If Rio gets it is 2016, a new frontier city is unlikely to repeat. There is no rule that says that, but I know many that view it that way. Now, I don't mean ALL of the African delegates will go to Chicago, but most might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted March 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Before I get flamed, I put Turkey as "Middle East" basically because that is the preconceived idea I had of it, but I know part of it is in eastern Europe. Same goes for Russia, I view it more as a European country even though much of it is in Asia. Same applies for a couple other countries on borders - I tried my best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicGames Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Before I get flamed, I put Turkey as "Middle East" basically because that is the preconceived idea I had of it, but I know part of it is in eastern Europe. Same goes for Russia, I view it more as a European country even though much of it is in Asia. Same applies for a couple other countries on borders - I tried my best. It's only the Turks themselves that have this fantasy that they are European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Yeah, well, I think we've discussed continental alliances before here. I think too much can be made of it. I don't doubt that some members will vote for their region, or someone they think of as culturally close to them, and it probably accounts for the solid foundation behind each bid's support, but after that, just so many other factors come into play - personal relationships, deals, strategic voting, continental rotation. the final presentation - sheesh, some of them evenb vote for who they think's the best bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted March 2, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 This thread is to vet those alliances I guess. For example, I don't believe most of the Asian countries near Japan will actually vote for Japan (SE Asia could swing in its favor). I mean, I don't know the delegates personally, but I can't see South Korea voting for Japan because it wants 2018. I don't see China voting for Tokyo either, because they do not want to be upstaged, and there is some competition between the two (hence why U.S. cars are far more popular in China than Japanese). I stated my case for Africa - basically the Obama factor. Europe, I haven't quite figured out. They have the largest mass of delegates, but I wouldn't know where to begin in classifying their votes. I don't see most the European countries making Madrid their pick, as I am sure preps are underway for some European cities to bid for that special year of 2020. But that gives them three other options, so it really doesn't help. The Middle East could be more hostile to a U.S. bid, but again, I am not sure. I have no doubt S. America will swing toward Rio, and N. American delegates are basically Canada and Spanish speaking countries that would love to see a Latin country host. Aruba and Barbados may be the only supporters of Chicago from N. America. I guess who ever does best in Europe will take the crown since they have the largest mass. Any other thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 2, 2009 Report Share Posted March 2, 2009 Hmmm.l I don't necessarily see the Europeans automatically getting behind Madrid. Some possibly will, but i reckon their eyes will be on 2020 and 2024 and they'd probably prefer to take out another region than have to compete against them again for 2020. Personally, i think if anything, Munich 2018 (or another strong Euro WOG bid) has more chance of benefitting from Euro support in light of clearing the way for 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Very wild guess NORTH AFRICA - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Algeria - Madrid Egypt - Rio Egypt - Rio Morocco - Rio Morocco - Rio Tunisia - Madrid AFRICA - CHICAGO WINNER Côte d'Ivoire - Rio Cameroon - Rio Gambia - Rio Guinea - Rio Kenya - Rio Namibia - Rio South Africa - Rio Senegal - Rio Uganda - Rio Zambia - Rio ASIA - CHICAGO OR RIO WINNER? China - Tokyo China- Tokyo Chinese Taipei- Tokyo Democratic People's Republic of Korea- Tokyo Hong-Kong- Tokyo Japan Japan Korea- Tokyo Korea- Tokyo SE ASIA - TOKYO WINNER? India - Rio Indonesia - Tokyo Malaysia- Tokyo Philippines- Tokyo Singapore- Tokyo Thailand- Tokyo EUROPE - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Austria - Madrid Belgium - Madrid Croatia - Madrid Czech Republic - Madrid Finland - Madrid Finland - Madrid France - Madrid France - Madrid Great Britain - Chicago Great Britain- Chicago Great Britain- Chicago Germany- Chicago Germany- Chicago Germany- Chicago Greece- Rio Hungary - Madrid Hungary - Madrid Ireland - Chicago Italy - Madrid Italy - Madrid Italy - Madrid Italy - Madrid Italy - Madrid Liechtenstein - Madrid Luxembourg - Madrid Monaco - Madrid Netherlands - Madrid Netherlands - Madrid Norway - Madrid Poland - Madrid Portugal - Madrid Russia - Madrid Russia - Madrid Russia - Madrid Spain Switzerland - Madrid Switzerland - Madrid Switzerland - Madrid Switzerland - Madrid Switzerland - Madrid Sweden - Madrid Sweden - Madrid Sweden - Madrid Ukraine - Madrid Ukraine - Madrid MIDDLE EAST - RIO OR TOKYO WINNER? Israel - Rio Saudi Arabia- Rio Lebanon- Rio Pakistan- Rio Qatar- Rio Syria- Rio Turkey- Rio United Arab Emirates- Rio NORTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Aruba - Rio Barbados- Rio Canada - Chicago Canada - Chicago Cuba- Rio Cuba- Rio Mexico- Rio Mexico- Rio Puerto Rico- Rio United States United States SOUTH AMERICA - RIO WINNER Brazil Brazil Colombia- Rio Guatemala- Rio Panama- Rio Peru- Rio Uruguay- Rio OCEANIA - CHICAGO, RIO OR TOKYO WINNER Australia - Chicago Australia - Chicago Australia - Chicago Fiji - Tokyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm Jeremie Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 It doesn't work that way period. You have about 110 IOC members who, for the most part, will vote for individual reasons. For example, I highly doubt that the French IOC members will vote for the same city. Historically Latin America and Africa have voted as a block in the past (and to a lesser extent Asia) but the trend is changing. The other thing: secret ballot, we'll never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 It doesn't work that way period.You have about 110 IOC members who, for the most part, will vote for individual reasons. For example, I highly doubt that the French IOC members will vote for the same city. Historically Latin America and Africa have voted as a block in the past (and to a lesser extent Asia) but the trend is changing. The other thing: secret ballot, we'll never know. Exactly! And to stir up a can of worms ... Remember, not even all the African voters would have unanimously supported Abuja for CWG 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted March 3, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 I totally agree that we cannot count on a particular region to unanimously go one direction. I do however feel strongly that Chicago will do better with the African delegates, and Rio will do better with N. & S. America. I think SE Asia will maybe lean toward Tokyo, but China and South Korea could go against Tokyo. This whole thread is pure nonetheless, and I was just interested to hear what your thoughts were on geography and the IOC members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm Jeremie Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 I totally agree that we cannot count on a particular region to unanimously go one direction. I do however feel strongly that Chicago will do better with the African delegates, and Rio will do better with N. & S. America. I think SE Asia will maybe lean toward Tokyo, but China and South Korea could go against Tokyo.This whole thread is pure nonetheless, and I was just interested to hear what your thoughts were on geography and the IOC members. Officially, China (and the Olympic Council of Asia for that matter) support Tokyo. Now, does that mean that the Chinese IOC members will vote for Tokyo? Who knows. One thing one has to take into account is also the influence of the IOC members of a given candidate country within the IOC: - the US does not have a powerful IOC member anymore (worse, they don't have a member within the Executive Board) - Madrid can count on both Samaranches (Juan Antonio jr shouldn't be underestimated) - Tokyo can count on Igaya, 2nd VP and well respected among his peers - Rio has powerful IOC members too. For Europe, Pescante, Bach are among the kingmakers (Paris lost Pescante support in the last week of the campaign...). In South-America, Vasquez-Rana is very powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim jones Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Obama, and Capetown 2020 factored mostly in my decision. If Rio gets it is 2016, a new frontier city is unlikely to repeat. There is no rule that says that, but I know many that view it that way.Now, I don't mean ALL of the African delegates will go to Chicago, but most might. I think you are right in regards to back to back frontiers but think of this Melbourne 1956, Rome 1960, Tokyo 1964, Mexico City 1968 , Montreal 1976 , Moscow 1980, Seoul 1988 , Barcelona 1992 and Atlanta 1996 . All were indeed Frontiers as either first time staging or elected and in Rome's Case Essentially both. It has really only been the 2000's that have not blazed a frontier trail 75 percent of the time. Sydney 2000 , Athens 2004 and London 2012 being repeats for the respective nations and of course Beijing 2008 being the first time in China. My belief is that Chicago will probably win. If any other city is going to win the conventional wisdom would say RIO as you would not have a Back to Back frontier situation with London then Rio. you also have the benefit of good Eastern Timezone time difference to Rio for American Tv. Tokyo would defy the odds becoming the first city elected twice outside Europe and Madrid is just silly. Back to Back Europe does not exist in the Age of Big TV Rights from America. Jim Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim jones Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Exactly!And to stir up a can of worms ... Remember, not even all the African voters would have unanimously supported Abuja for CWG 2014. And We indeed don't even know that either way as it is a secret ballot LOL. Frankly of course they probably did not. Jim Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim jones Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 It doesn't work that way period.You have about 110 IOC members who, for the most part, will vote for individual reasons. For example, I highly doubt that the French IOC members will vote for the same city. Historically Latin America and Africa have voted as a block in the past (and to a lesser extent Asia) but the trend is changing. The other thing: secret ballot, we'll never know. A factor no one really takes into consideration is the Athlete IOC members . While you can have Royal Family Members with a view that can be diverse former Athletes of differing era's are probably look at things in many different ways. Jacques Rogge Being a competitive sailor decades ago will probably have a very different view of bids then Frankie Fredericks of Namibia who was recently a competitor. 110 members can have 110 views of what makes them vote for whom. Who knows a Jacques Rogge could indeed like the closeness of the Sailing venues for Tokyo , Chicago and Rio or he could not like that and prefer Madrid's plan for that sport he competed in . Older former athletes could have a lower bar of what is needed for an Athletes Village while a Frankie Fredericks or Beckie Scott might have huge ideals of what is good for the athletes. One Can never tell. Jim jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm Jeremie Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 A factor no one really takes into consideration is the Athlete IOC members . And who is "no one"? Olympian IOC members were key in London victory in 2012 and having Coe as a bid leader certainly did bring in a lot of votes from former Athletes. And one overlooked fact by many here is that only one bid has an Olympic champion at its bid committee CEO (and a woman with that). BTW, Rogge doesn't vote (unless there is a tie in the final round)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim jones Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 And who is "no one"? Olympian IOC members were key in London victory in 2012 and having Coe as a bid leader certainly did bring in a lot of votes from former Athletes. And one overlooked fact by many here is that only one bid has an Olympic champion at its bid committee CEO (and a woman with that). BTW, Rogge doesn't vote (unless there is a tie in the final round)! Have you ever seen anyone here say that the IOC members having actually being former competitors will have a different view then perhaps royalty from Holland ? I mention it and basically you will probably find it to be true. A person who has lived in an athletes village is going to have a different prospective then the princess of Orange LOL. I am sure Prince Albert and Princess Anne have barely stepped foot in an athletes village for the most part. Jim jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm Jeremie Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Have you ever seen anyone here say that the IOC members having actually being former competitors will have a different view then perhaps royalty from Holland ? I mention it and basically you will probably find it to be true. A person who has lived in an athletes village is going to have a different prospective then the princess of Orange LOL. I am sure Prince Albert and Princess Anne have barely stepped foot in an athletes village for the most part. Jim jones As a matter of fact, it has been discussed here several times (mainly during the 2008 bid race as "Athletes Centered" was TO approach) and quite frankly, it's stating the obvious. But kudos to you for making such a creative argument. BTW, both Prince Albert and Princess Anne have probably spent more times in Olympic Villages than most of other IOC members. Once again demonstrating your impressive knowledge about the Olympic Movement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Jeez, five Swiss and five Italian votes!!! It's NOT like Switzerland is even a major Summer sports power! ANyway, for the Philippine IOC member, Francisco Elizalde, it's hard to say. Regionally, he may go for Tokyo; but he is of Spanish extraction, so again, he may vote for Madrid. On the other hand, he is a Harvard grad and his family has a lot of US business connections, so maybe Chicago. And one of his sons is the Philippine distributor for a Brazilian line of footwear, the Havainas brand -- so Rio by a distant shot. This will be very hard to predict. It will come down to the presence of the countries' leaders and the star power they bring with them. But I'm sure Madrid will be the first one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Rols Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 BTW, both Prince Albert and Princess Anne have probably spent more times in Olympic Villages than most of other IOC members. Once again demonstrating your impressive knowledge about the Olympic Movement... I'm glad you pointed that out, jeremie. Albert, in particular, is one of the most commonly seen IOC members in the village come games time, as I know you know. Not to mention that, unfortunately, JJ picked the two examples that actually WERE athletes at the Games above and beyond their Regal status. Read and learn, JJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Just a question: Why do you think Africa will go with Chicago? Because... 1. Affinity with the new US president; 2. To prevent a Rio victory because that would kill Capetown/Africa's 2020 chances; and 3. Michael Johnson, Miss Oprah and Jesse Jackson I think will also be pitching in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfm Jeremie Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 But I'm sure Madrid will be the first one out. I would be amazed if Madrid is the first one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted March 3, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 I would be amazed if Madrid is the first one out. Who do you think will be first out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
memorabilia Posted March 3, 2009 Report Share Posted March 3, 2009 Who do you think will be first out? My bet & wish (regarding technical bid and olympic values): 1st round : Madrid 2n round : Chicago Winner at 3rd round between Tokyo (best technical bid) and Rio (best bid regarding olympic values) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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