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Who Will bid for 2016?


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Nairobi's out.  From nykfan845's post in "Future Bids":

NAIROBI, July 7 (Xinhuanet) -- Kenya is not ready to bid for the 2016 Olympics because it lacks modern sports facilities, funding and has a dilapidated transport system, Kenyan Olympic chief said Thursday.

   "We're not ready to host the Olympics. Instead we should first go for games like the world cross country, which we're bidding to host (in 2007)," said Tom Omuombo, secretary-general of the National Olympic Committee shortly after London won the bid to host the 2012 Games.

Finally, a pragmatist from one of the "new frontier" sites.

My 2016 "medium" list:  Cape Town, Istanbul, Moscow (very ill-advised), Rio, New York, Ulan Bator!!

The 2016 "well-done" list: Cape Town, Istanbul, New York, Rio.

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Nairobi's out.  From nykfan845's post in "Future Bids":
NAIROBI, July 7 (Xinhuanet) -- Kenya is not ready to bid for the 2016 Olympics because it lacks modern sports facilities, funding and has a dilapidated transport system, Kenyan Olympic chief said Thursday.

   "We're not ready to host the Olympics. Instead we should first go for games like the world cross country, which we're bidding to host (in 2007)," said Tom Omuombo, secretary-general of the National Olympic Committee shortly after London won the bid to host the 2012 Games.

OK, let substitute it

NY

Cape town

New Delhi

Rio

Milan

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i rather like buenos aires, im not so sure about delhi they hosting 2010 commonwealth games IOC wont realistically award them the olympic games in 2009 esp when they are struggling with 2010 preparations
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I don't even need a short list. And I hope the other Countries don't put alot of money into their bids. Though they do need to show a "HUGE" interest in wanting the Games..if they want to be considered!

NYC will be the host for the 2016 Olympic Games!

I've been following the IOC since 1984. They have a pattern, so they've become predictable!.

Actually NYC didn't really have a chance this time around. It deffinately would have been a Europeon City to host the 2012 Games. And Paris really blew it! They had the bid right up to the final vote.

Prediction: Paris will bid for the 2020 Games and win! So..see everybody "Paris in 2020"! No short list needed here either!

Russ

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Whilst it might be a fairly sure thing that the US might walk away with the actual games, I do think 2016 will see a lot of other cities using the competition as a dry run.

Obviously Istanbul will bid again - I'm sure they passed some sort of law in Turkey which said that Istanbul is going to bid for the Olympic games every single time until they win it.

Cape Town is going to put in their first bid - just to get an idea of what's involved.  I also think though that London is going to help Cape Town with their bid.

Moscow and Madrid are both going to bid again - but only so that they can try and do what Paris unsuccessfully did this time and do the 'we've bid 3 times now, we're serious about this, let us have it' for 2020.

Rio was also one of the early 'good' bids for 2012 and it was a bit of a shock to me when it didn't make the shortlist. To be honest, at the start, I actually had Rio as my 2nd choice after London.

Delhi could be a strong bid though.  Presumably, if they're hosting the Commonwealth games in 2010, they'll be using the same stadium for an Olympic games in 2016.  By 2009 it should be fairly obvious with how well Delhi is doing in organising the Commonwealth Games - if they're no major problems, it could show the IOC that they can do it.

One other slight issue which may raise it's head for 2016 is that if it goes to the US, it'll mean 4 out of the last 6 games would've been in English speaking countries.  I'm not sure how serious an issue this might be but they may want to avoid that for political reasons.

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Cape Town already had a first bid for the 2004 Games.

And, yeah. Paris for 2024, 100 years after they hosted it last.

And if San Francisco wants to run again & be taken seriously for the USOC candidacy, they better get rid of the idea of a "Palo Alto" Olympics. That plan was just absurd & that's why they lost the last time, plain & simple.

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I don't even need a short list. And I hope the other Countries don't put alot of money into their bids. Though they do need to show a "HUGE" interest in wanting the Games..if they want to be considered!

NYC will be the host for the 2016 Olympic Games!

I've been following the IOC since 1984. They have a pattern, so they've become predictable!.

Actually NYC didn't really have a chance this time around. It deffinately would have been a Europeon City to host the 2012 Games. And Paris really blew it! They had the bid right up to the final vote.

Prediction: Paris will bid for the 2020 Games and win! So..see everybody "Paris in 2020"! No short list needed here either!

Russ

as the recents events tell us.. nothing is already done all could always change and surprise..

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Im confident enough to say that with a little more support from New Yorkers and no more annoying polititions

2016 is ours   :)

but i think it's best for New York if a few other US cities to jump into the compitition  

NYC2016  :unclesam:

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If Madrid and Moscow bid, they will make the shortlist i assume on technical merits, how ever this would be very selfish of them i think, as europe had 1992,2004 and 2012, new york would bid and no more of thes other funny US cities, ifu want games in USA then new york is your best bet, cape towns support from london could prove decisive!!!! and it shouldnt be underestimated, cape town already has a stirling reputation with the IOC, further more, istanbul, rio and my other favourite buenos aires i hope also make it,as for KL i dont think so although you never know, delhi wont actually win the bid or be shortlisted they will be preparing for comonwealth games i mean who is gonna host the commonwealth games and olympic games in 6 years, that makes them like the  super power of hosting multisport events, furthermore the soccer world cup is spread over a country so that wont be an issue.

2016 NEW YORK VS CAPE TOWN

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THE CAPE TOWN PLAN:

1995 South Africa hosts rugby world cup and wins, cape town hosts opening ceremony and opening match

1996 South Africa hosts AFrican cup of nations and wins

1996 South AFrica wins the marathon and double gold for penny heyns

1997 cape town bids for 2004 olympic games and athens wins (trial run)

hosts world fencing championships and world junior cycling championships

2000 bids for 2006 soccer world cup and loses by one vote to the germans

not so succesful at sydney scoops silver medal as its best

2003 hosts cricket world cup with great succes,cape town hosts opening ceremony and match

2004 south africa wins bid for soccer world cup 2010 and south africa win  suprise mens relay in world record time

host womens world cup of golf

2005 mandela supports london 2012 bid, london wins 2012 bid,

2005 cape town officially withdraws from bidding for 2014 commonwealth games (24 June 2005)

2005 south africa bids against japan and NZ for 2011 rugby world cup als hosts commonwealth wrestling championships

ROgge says games should go to africa

Olympic games sports reduced to 26

2009 cape town bids for 2016 games with support of london (maybe wins if not) rugby added to ioc programme!

2010 south africa hosts soccer world cup with great success

2011 if successful SA hosts rugby world cup again

2013 a failed 2016 bid a succesful 2010 SWC, london supports cape town as well as ATHENS mwahahah,europe supports cape town(time difference reasons hehe) and the commonwealth support cape town as well as india as africa supported its 2010 CWG bid.

cape town hosts numerous other championships in individual sports...

time for new frontiers!!

2020 Cape Town hosts Olympic Games!!! hooraa

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Well my list of possible bidders include:

America:

USA (pretty much it will be NY, unless public opinion in the city drops)

Mexico (Monterrey or Guadalajara)

Rio de Janeiro

Africa:

South Africa (Cape Town or Johannesburg)

Cairo

Asia:

Japan (Fukuoka or Osaka)

Busan

New Delhi

Bangkok

Kuala Lumpur

Dubai

Europe:

Istanbul

Prague

and for the shortlist there are two secure spots:

NY or the next US candidate

Fukuoka or Osaka

with the next cities having a chance:

Rio de Janeiro

Monterrey or Guadalajara

Cape Town or Johannesburg

Istanbul

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I think the real contest will be for securing the USOC nomination. It will be interesting to see who manages it.

Given that, I think the shortlist might be:

- US bid city (NYC/SF/LA?)

- Mexican bid (Monterrey?)

- Toronto (hopefully)

- Rio

- Token European city

It is possible that Rio might not even be shortlisted. At any rate, is is highly doubtful there will be any serious competition from the South Hemisphere. The Mexican bid is a bit of a wildcard. If they can get a good bid together, they may have a chance. I think it would be good for the race in general if Toronto were to bid. If it does, it will ensure that the process isn't just a coronation for the US candidate. It will keep the US bid on its toes, at least. I expect the US bid to win, but if there are any slip-ups, Toronto could sneak in.

It'll will certainly be a change of pace from previous races, and interesting in that the real excitement will be in seeing who secures the USOC nomination.

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Considering that by 2016, the Summer Games will not have been to the Western Hemisphere for 20 years and 5 Olympiads, In my view 2016 will inevitably come down to the battle of the Americas, with the odd bit of spice from elsewhere. It should get quite interesting.

USA: NYC, probably, but even if not, the US surely must go for it! And at this stage would probably go into the race as favourite.

Canada: Ironically, Vancouver 2010 has become a millstone for its Summer hopes, but I still think they really have to bite the bullet and make a go with Toronto unless it wants to see its Summer Olympic hopes dashed until the late 2020s-30s.  It's a big ask, but as we've just seen with London, get a good bid together and campaign it vigorously and enthusiastically, and you could do it.

Mexico: Again, could be its best chance for a while and there seems to be some interest in the Monterey/Guadalajara options. Possible bidder.

Brazil: Rio, or just perhaps Sao Paolo/Brasilia. Interesting conjunction for it. By vote time it will hopefully have a successful Pan-Ams under its belt, but has the burden of a 2014 World Cup around it. At least the WC will have already taken care of what would have been its biggest ticket item _ a viable main Olympic Stadium. I think it could seriously go at this and make the shortlist. It'll be tough from there, though, but even if it fails, it would serve as a good springboard to another 2020 bid.

Other Sth America: I don't see Buenos Aires up for it yet, and Santiago, while it could probably do it, just doesn't seem to be on the agenda in Chile.

South Africa: Capetown (probably). Could be an interesting one. I don't think they'd win, but like Brazil they could make the shortlist, and even surprise from there, but at least have that foundation laid for a strong go at 2020. The IOC itself lately seems to be acknowledging the SthAmerica/Africa games issue, and realistically, Capetown seems to be the only real contender from Africa for a while. A few other fanciful African bids may come out of the woodwork (Nairobi, Accra?) but these will be knocked down and never have a chance of making the shortlist.

Asia: This is where it gets interesting.; A few have already expressed some interests/intentions (Japan, Bangkok). They could even have an outside very long shot at success. I think a few other surprises could also come out of Asia (Busan, KL, New Delhi?), and maybe one even make the shortlist. I do think Asia has a better shot at 2020, though (which could well shape up as an Asia versus the New Frontiers race).

Europe: Who are they kidding? They're out of the loop definitely in this round. Could even be pushing it for 2020. But we've already seen the likes of Flanders and Hamburg come out already. I think they know their chances are low, and would really only use the early rounds of the campaign  to test the waters and establish their credentials for down the track.

And my short list for the 2009 vote?

NYC

Toronto

Rio

Capetown

Nagoya

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North America:

First off I am almost 100% positive we will see a bid from the USA, that will most likely presume the position of favorite....I think this city will most likely be NYC, once theyget over 2012 they will be a hard defeat for any other USA city in a domestic race, and I think at the end of the day if they fix several of their problems (which are VERY fixable) they will be chosen by the USOC again......if not another very strong USA city will be chosen....and regardless it will be the one to ebat in this race if it is one of the top USA cities (NYC, SF, LA, Washington D.C., Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia)

Mexico: something tells me we will see a bid from them (Moterrey) defiantely not that wakcy Tijuana/Sand Diego bid...I don't see the IOC chosing them....the next time the Games return to a Latin nation, I think it will be South America...not Mexico....

Canada: I don't know it seems things are pretty split about another bid from Toronto. I personally see where people are comming from saying "now or never", but I am sorry it most likely will not happen. Yes Toronto had a strong bid in the past, but something tells me other bids will be able to rival this (if not top it) by time the race begins....and not only this Vancouver will be a very big obstacle for the bid, and will give IOC members a very quick reason not to vote for it....I am sorry if Canada wanted Toronto they should have stuck with it....they would have gotten it...but they went with Vancouver, ultimately greatly hurting Toronto (to say the least) in races close to 2010.....

Cuba: Hey, why not? They have been in every recent race...why not try again....and after doing almost nothing and being cut blame the IOC for only taking "rich nations" again....

South America: I think we will in fact see another bid from Rio de Janiero, however after seeing how far they got in the 2012 race, something tells me they have quite the workout to do in this race just to even make the shortlist...plus it is looking like the IOC is goin to a new frontier in 2020, not 2016...

Africa: Cape Town might also go for it (although  this is far from certain right now)....I think if they do they could make the shortlist again (taking Rio's spot as a new frontier)...but I think the IOC will also hold off with them until 2020...because I do believe they are the first "new fronteir" city we will see host....

Asia: Note any win for 2014 will kill 2016.....

Japan: will put forward a bid....however they have even admitted this would merely be a test run for a win in 2020, 2024.....however I do see them making the shortlist

Bangkok, New Delhi, KL: Maybe, doubt they would get far

Europe: I am sure they will have some bids (they always do)....but it isn't happening....it is very safe to say Europe is out of 2016....

Overall, I think the 2016 will be far more diverse and interesting then the 2012 race, although I do think the actual winner will be a little more predictable....but really we have to just wait and see....

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