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Sports Illustrated Medal Picks


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Baron

If I find a Waziristan NOC pin, it will be a pleasure for me to buy and send it to you by mail.

Yes, please, A. :)

Also, u know anytime in the next 2 years that you can come to the Bay Area, Waziristan, to look at my Olym collection, I'd be very happy to show it to you. Saves me from having to catalogue it. ;)

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I, too, wouldn't take SI's predictions too seriously. They ignore these sports for four years and then they try to come off as experts on everything on the Olympic program.

But then, NBC ignores a lot of these sports for four years too.

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I remember that they were way off in 2004. Sadly, I haven't saved their medal picks back then, but I remember quite a lot of wrong picks in terms of the German athletes.

Now, I have some doubts about their picks again. Especially a prediction of only two bronze medals for Germany in rowing (after two gold and two silver in 2004 and three silver and two bronze at the 2007 World Championships) sounds a little bit strange to me.

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Now, I have some doubts about their picks again. Especially a prediction of only two bronze medals for Germany in rowing (after two gold and two silver in 2004 and three silver and two bronze at the 2007 World Championships) sounds a little bit strange to me.

yeah - I thought, too that the prediction in rowing will be wrong

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OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results:

Athletics

Women’s Shot put – Astrid Kumbernuss (Bronze) wrong; Kumbernuss won no medal

Boxing

Men’s 57 kg – Vitaly Tajbert (Silver) fairly wrong; Tajbert won bronze actually

Canoe/Kayak

Men’s C1 500 metres – Andreas Dittmer (Silver) fairly wrong; Dittmer won gold actually

Men’s C1 1,000 metres – Andreas Dittmer (Gold) fairly wrong; Dittmer won silver actually

Men’s C1 Slalom – Stefan Pfannmöller (Bronze) correct

Men’s C2 Slalom – Marcus Becker & Stefan Henze (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually

Men’s K1 500 metres – Lutz Altepost (Silver) wrong; Altepost won no medal

Men’s K2 500 metres – Ronald Rauhe & Tim Wieskötter (Gold) correct

Men’s K4 1,000 metres – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually

Men’s K1 Slalom – Thomas Schmidt (Silver) wrong; Schmidt won no medal

Women’s K2 500 metres – Birgit Fischer & Carolin Leonhardt (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually

Women’s K4 500 metres – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won gold actually

Women’s K1 Slalom – Mandy Planert (Silver) wrong; Planert won no medal

Cycling

Men’s Road race – Erik Zabel (Silver) wrong; Zabel won no medal

Men’s Individual time trial (road) – Jan Ullrich (Gold) wrong; Ullrich won no medal

Men’s One-km time trial (track) – Stefan Nimke (Gold) fairly wrong; Nimke won bronze actually

Men’s Olympic sprint – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won gold actually

Women’s Individual time trial (road) – Judith Arndt (Gold) wrong; Arndt won no medal in that event

Women’s Mountain bike – Sabine Spitz (Bronze) correct

Equestrian

Individual dressage – Ulla Salzgeber (Silver) correct

Team dressage – Germany (Gold) correct

Individual jumping – Ludger Beerbaum (Gold) wrong; Beerbaum won no individual medal

Individual jumping – Marcus Ehning (Silver) wrong; Ehning won no individual medal

Team jumping – Germany (Gold) correct, but later denied because of doping

Fencing

Men’s Team épée – Germany (Bronze) correct

Men’s Team foil – Germany (Silver) wrong; they won no medal

Women’s Team épée – Germany (Silver) correct

Football

Women – Germany (Silver) fairly wrong; they won bronze actually

Handball

Men – Germany (Gold) fairly wrong; they won silver actually

Gymnastics

Women’s Trampoline – Anna Dogonadze (Bronze) fairly wrong; Dogonadze won gold actually

Judo

Men’s 81 kg – Florian Wanner (Bronze) wrong; Wanner won no medal

Women’s 57 kg – Yvonne Bönisch (Bronze) fairly wrong; Bönisch won gold actually

Women’s 63 kg – Anna von Harnier (Bronze) wrong; von Harnier won no medal

Rowing

Men’s Single sculls – Marcel Hacker (Silver) wrong; Hacker won no medal

Women’s Single sculls – Katrin Rutschow-Stomporowski (Bronze) fairly wrong; Rutschow-Stomporowski won gold actually

Women’s Double sculls – Kathrin Boron & Kerstin El Qalqili (Silver) wrong; they won no medal in that event

Women’s Lightweight double sculls – Daniela Reimer & Claudia Blasberg (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually

Women’s Quadruple sculls – Germany (Silver) fairly wrong; they won gold actually

Sailing

Women’s Europe – Petra Niemann (Bronze) wrong; Niemann won no medal

Women’s Yngling – Germany (Silver) wrong; they won no medal

Shooting

Men’s 25-metre rapid-fire pistol – Ralf Schumann (Gold) correct

Men’s 10-metre running target – Manfred Kurzer (Gold) correct

Women’s 10-metre air rifle – Sonja Pfeilschifter (Gold) wrong; Pfeilschifter won no medal

Swimming

Women’s 400-metre freestyle – Hannah Stockbauer (Gold) wrong; Stockbauer won no medal

Women’s 800-metre freestyle – Hannah Stockbauer (Gold) wrong; Stockbauer won no medal

Women’s 100-metre backstroke – Antje Buschschulte (Gold) wrong; Buschschulte won no medal in that event

Women’s 200-metre individual medley – Teresa Rohmann (Bronze) wrong; Rohmann won no medal

Women’s 4x200-metre freestyle relay – Germany (Bronze) correct

So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand.

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OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results:

...

So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand.

Danke schön F. - hast Du auch nochgesehen, ob Athleten gewonnen hatten, die SI überhaupt nicht auf der Rolle hatte?

Thanks very much,

that is a bad result for SI - you shouldn't take these prediction not seriously...

Edited by Citius Altius Fortius
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Problem is, they are the ONLY one I think who makes this COMPREHENSIVE list of probable winners.

I don't know of any other organization that can assemble a huge staff of sort of make 'educated gueses' about the winners.

Edited by baron-pierreIV
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Danke schön F. - hast Du auch nochgesehen, ob Athleten gewonnen hatten, die SI überhaupt nicht auf der Rolle hatte?

CAF's question was who were the German athletes SI didn't pick as medal winners:

Athletics

Women's Javelin – Steffi Nerius (Silver)

Women's Shot put – Nadine Kleinert (Silver)

Boxing

Men's 51 kg – Rustamhodza Rahimov (Bronze)

Canoe/Kayak

Men's C2 1,000 metres – Christian Gille & Tomasz Wylenzek (Gold)

Cycling

Men's Points race – Guido Fulst (Bronze)

Men's Sprint – René Wolff (Bronze)

Women's Road race – Judith Arndt (Silver)

Diving

Men's Synchronised springboard – Andreas Wels & Tobias Schellenberg (Silver)

Equestrian

Individual three-day event – Bettina Hoy (Gold, later denied because of a highly disputed timing error)

Team three-day event – Germany (Gold, later denied because of the same reason)

Gymnastics

Men's Trampoline – Henrik Stehlik (Bronze)

Hockey

Women – Germany (Gold)

Men – Germany (Bronze)

Judo

Men's 100 kg – Michael Jurack (Bronze)

Women's 48 kg – Julia Matijass (Bronze)

Women's 70 kg – Annett Böhm (Bronze)

Rowing

Women's Double sculls – Peggy Waleska & Britta Oppelt (Silver)

Shooting

Men's 50-metre rifle, prone – Christian Lusch (Silver)

Swimming

Men's 4x100-metre individual medley relay – Germany (Silver)

Women's 200-metre backstroke – Antje Buschschulte (Bronze)

Women's 200-metre breaststroke – Anne Poleska (Bronze)

Women's 4x100-metre individual medley relay – Germany (Bronze)

Tennis

Men's Doubles – Nicolas Kiefer & Rainer Schüttler (Silver)

So SI didn't pick a total of 23 German medals. That's almost half of Germany's medal total in 2004 (49)!

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Problem is, they are the ONLY one I think who makes this COMPREHENSIVE list of probable winners.

I don't know of any other organization that can assemble a huge staff of sort of make 'educated gueses' about the winners.

USA Today does for each Olympics. Though Im not 100% sure that thier "research" isn't reading the SI olympic Preview issue. The picks are similar and just as inaccurate after all is said and done. Here is the link to their Athens picks.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/at...predictions.htm

AJ

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USA Today does for each Olympics. Though Im not 100% sure that thier "research" isn't reading the SI olympic Preview issue. The picks are similar and just as inaccurate after all is said and done. Here is the link to their Athens picks.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/at...predictions.htm

AJ

Thanks for posting this link!

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Thanks for posting this link!

no problem. IIRC they usally publish their list the day of the opening ceremonies.

ESPN magazine usually has a partilal set of predictions-- anyone seen these yet?

Also there was suppose to be a full set of Medal projections from AP via stats.com but I haven't seen them yet.

Yes I am a fantasy olympics junkie and need all the projections I can get :blink:

AJ

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OK, Olym2004, so how did SI do for the rest of their '04 picks?

Did they even hit 65%?

I don't know -- I don't have the time to compare each of the 900-something picks with the real results.

But I doubt that for the other medal picks, the error rate was much lower.

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I don't know -- I don't have the time to compare each of the 900-something picks with the real results.

But I doubt that for the other medal picks, the error rate was much lower.

mhh - maybe I will do that until 080808

I wouldn't take the prediction and watching in the real results and say yes or no - I wouldn't mention, who won in reality - just yes or no

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mhh - maybe I will do that until 080808

I wouldn't take the prediction and watching in the real results and say yes or no - I wouldn't mention, who won in reality - just yes or no

I am just recognising that this won't work - e.g. the prediction for athlete A is gold, but he/she got silver - it would be "no", but he/she got a medal - that is really complicated and takes time...

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I am just recognising that this won't work - e.g. the prediction for athlete A is gold, but he/she got silver - it would be "no", but he/she got a medal - that is really complicated and takes time...

Exactly. At first, I wanted to follow your "yes/no" concept as well, but I deemed it unfair if I had called a pick where they only predicted the wrong "medal colour" completely wrong.

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Exactly. At first, I wanted to follow your "yes/no" concept as well, but I deemed it unfair if I had called a pick where they only predicted the wrong "medal colour" completely wrong.

true - maybe it would be fair to give 3 points for every right "medal colour", but one 1 point for every wrong "medal colour"...

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IMO, it should be 1 point if it is corrent, .5 if he got another color.

BTW, for México:

Spors Illustrated has almost the same prediction as me but not at the same time:

Says gold for María Espinoza in Tae Kwon Do, I say gold.

Bronze for Guillermo Pérez in Tae Kwon Do, I say silver.

Bronze for Paola Espinoza in 10 meters Platform. I agree 100%.

BRonze for Espinoza/Ortiz bronze in platform synchro. I'd put Yahel Castillo in the 3 meters trampoline for that bronze instead.

I agree with Méxco having 4 nedals, but they say 0-1-3, and I say 1-1-2.

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OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results:

Equestrian

Team jumping – Germany (Gold) correct, but later denied because of doping

So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand.

I did'nt know that. Germany is not the olympic champion in the team jumping? Because if that's the case the fourth place is bronze now, that means the Netherlands have an extra medal in Athens 2004.

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I did'nt know that. Germany is not the olympic champion in the team jumping? Because if that's the case the fourth place is bronze now, that means the Netherlands have an extra medal in Athens 2004.

I already see, it's Germany with bronze now and the USA with the gold and Sweden with the silver

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