baron-pierreIV Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 BaronIf I find a Waziristan NOC pin, it will be a pleasure for me to buy and send it to you by mail. Yes, please, A. Also, u know anytime in the next 2 years that you can come to the Bay Area, Waziristan, to look at my Olym collection, I'd be very happy to show it to you. Saves me from having to catalogue it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 I do have some right/wrong numbers from 2004 for SI. Before I gave up, they were something like 50/400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCD 2012 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 Estonia............. 1 0 0 1Panama.............. 1 0 0 1 San Marino.......... 1 0 0 1 Latvia.............. 0 1 0 1 Malaysia............ 0 1 0 1 San Marino winning gold ? Thats something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTHarner Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 I, too, wouldn't take SI's predictions too seriously. They ignore these sports for four years and then they try to come off as experts on everything on the Olympic program. But then, NBC ignores a lot of these sports for four years too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 I remember that they were way off in 2004. Sadly, I haven't saved their medal picks back then, but I remember quite a lot of wrong picks in terms of the German athletes. Now, I have some doubts about their picks again. Especially a prediction of only two bronze medals for Germany in rowing (after two gold and two silver in 2004 and three silver and two bronze at the 2007 World Championships) sounds a little bit strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citius Altius Fortius Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 Now, I have some doubts about their picks again. Especially a prediction of only two bronze medals for Germany in rowing (after two gold and two silver in 2004 and three silver and two bronze at the 2007 World Championships) sounds a little bit strange to me. yeah - I thought, too that the prediction in rowing will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 Hey, I still had the SI predictions for 2004 bookmarked in my old "Athens 2004" folder! http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/olympics/medal.picks// I'll check where they were wrong precisely in terms of the German athletes. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results: Athletics Women’s Shot put – Astrid Kumbernuss (Bronze) wrong; Kumbernuss won no medal Boxing Men’s 57 kg – Vitaly Tajbert (Silver) fairly wrong; Tajbert won bronze actually Canoe/Kayak Men’s C1 500 metres – Andreas Dittmer (Silver) fairly wrong; Dittmer won gold actually Men’s C1 1,000 metres – Andreas Dittmer (Gold) fairly wrong; Dittmer won silver actually Men’s C1 Slalom – Stefan Pfannmöller (Bronze) correct Men’s C2 Slalom – Marcus Becker & Stefan Henze (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually Men’s K1 500 metres – Lutz Altepost (Silver) wrong; Altepost won no medal Men’s K2 500 metres – Ronald Rauhe & Tim Wieskötter (Gold) correct Men’s K4 1,000 metres – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually Men’s K1 Slalom – Thomas Schmidt (Silver) wrong; Schmidt won no medal Women’s K2 500 metres – Birgit Fischer & Carolin Leonhardt (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually Women’s K4 500 metres – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won gold actually Women’s K1 Slalom – Mandy Planert (Silver) wrong; Planert won no medal Cycling Men’s Road race – Erik Zabel (Silver) wrong; Zabel won no medal Men’s Individual time trial (road) – Jan Ullrich (Gold) wrong; Ullrich won no medal Men’s One-km time trial (track) – Stefan Nimke (Gold) fairly wrong; Nimke won bronze actually Men’s Olympic sprint – Germany (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won gold actually Women’s Individual time trial (road) – Judith Arndt (Gold) wrong; Arndt won no medal in that event Women’s Mountain bike – Sabine Spitz (Bronze) correct Equestrian Individual dressage – Ulla Salzgeber (Silver) correct Team dressage – Germany (Gold) correct Individual jumping – Ludger Beerbaum (Gold) wrong; Beerbaum won no individual medal Individual jumping – Marcus Ehning (Silver) wrong; Ehning won no individual medal Team jumping – Germany (Gold) correct, but later denied because of doping Fencing Men’s Team épée – Germany (Bronze) correct Men’s Team foil – Germany (Silver) wrong; they won no medal Women’s Team épée – Germany (Silver) correct Football Women – Germany (Silver) fairly wrong; they won bronze actually Handball Men – Germany (Gold) fairly wrong; they won silver actually Gymnastics Women’s Trampoline – Anna Dogonadze (Bronze) fairly wrong; Dogonadze won gold actually Judo Men’s 81 kg – Florian Wanner (Bronze) wrong; Wanner won no medal Women’s 57 kg – Yvonne Bönisch (Bronze) fairly wrong; Bönisch won gold actually Women’s 63 kg – Anna von Harnier (Bronze) wrong; von Harnier won no medal Rowing Men’s Single sculls – Marcel Hacker (Silver) wrong; Hacker won no medal Women’s Single sculls – Katrin Rutschow-Stomporowski (Bronze) fairly wrong; Rutschow-Stomporowski won gold actually Women’s Double sculls – Kathrin Boron & Kerstin El Qalqili (Silver) wrong; they won no medal in that event Women’s Lightweight double sculls – Daniela Reimer & Claudia Blasberg (Bronze) fairly wrong; they won silver actually Women’s Quadruple sculls – Germany (Silver) fairly wrong; they won gold actually Sailing Women’s Europe – Petra Niemann (Bronze) wrong; Niemann won no medal Women’s Yngling – Germany (Silver) wrong; they won no medal Shooting Men’s 25-metre rapid-fire pistol – Ralf Schumann (Gold) correct Men’s 10-metre running target – Manfred Kurzer (Gold) correct Women’s 10-metre air rifle – Sonja Pfeilschifter (Gold) wrong; Pfeilschifter won no medal Swimming Women’s 400-metre freestyle – Hannah Stockbauer (Gold) wrong; Stockbauer won no medal Women’s 800-metre freestyle – Hannah Stockbauer (Gold) wrong; Stockbauer won no medal Women’s 100-metre backstroke – Antje Buschschulte (Gold) wrong; Buschschulte won no medal in that event Women’s 200-metre individual medley – Teresa Rohmann (Bronze) wrong; Rohmann won no medal Women’s 4x200-metre freestyle relay – Germany (Bronze) correct So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citius Altius Fortius Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 (edited) OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results:... So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand. Danke schön F. - hast Du auch nochgesehen, ob Athleten gewonnen hatten, die SI überhaupt nicht auf der Rolle hatte? Thanks very much, that is a bad result for SI - you shouldn't take these prediction not seriously... Edited July 27, 2008 by Citius Altius Fortius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 (edited) Problem is, they are the ONLY one I think who makes this COMPREHENSIVE list of probable winners. I don't know of any other organization that can assemble a huge staff of sort of make 'educated gueses' about the winners. Edited July 26, 2008 by baron-pierreIV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 Danke schön F. - hast Du auch nochgesehen, ob Athleten gewonnen hatten, die SI überhaupt nicht auf der Rolle hatte? CAF's question was who were the German athletes SI didn't pick as medal winners: Athletics Women's Javelin – Steffi Nerius (Silver) Women's Shot put – Nadine Kleinert (Silver) Boxing Men's 51 kg – Rustamhodza Rahimov (Bronze) Canoe/Kayak Men's C2 1,000 metres – Christian Gille & Tomasz Wylenzek (Gold) Cycling Men's Points race – Guido Fulst (Bronze) Men's Sprint – René Wolff (Bronze) Women's Road race – Judith Arndt (Silver) Diving Men's Synchronised springboard – Andreas Wels & Tobias Schellenberg (Silver) Equestrian Individual three-day event – Bettina Hoy (Gold, later denied because of a highly disputed timing error) Team three-day event – Germany (Gold, later denied because of the same reason) Gymnastics Men's Trampoline – Henrik Stehlik (Bronze) Hockey Women – Germany (Gold) Men – Germany (Bronze) Judo Men's 100 kg – Michael Jurack (Bronze) Women's 48 kg – Julia Matijass (Bronze) Women's 70 kg – Annett Böhm (Bronze) Rowing Women's Double sculls – Peggy Waleska & Britta Oppelt (Silver) Shooting Men's 50-metre rifle, prone – Christian Lusch (Silver) Swimming Men's 4x100-metre individual medley relay – Germany (Silver) Women's 200-metre backstroke – Antje Buschschulte (Bronze) Women's 200-metre breaststroke – Anne Poleska (Bronze) Women's 4x100-metre individual medley relay – Germany (Bronze) Tennis Men's Doubles – Nicolas Kiefer & Rainer Schüttler (Silver) So SI didn't pick a total of 23 German medals. That's almost half of Germany's medal total in 2004 (49)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 OK, Olym2004, so how did SI do for the rest of their '04 picks? Did they even hit 65%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amuller33 Posted July 26, 2008 Report Share Posted July 26, 2008 Problem is, they are the ONLY one I think who makes this COMPREHENSIVE list of probable winners. I don't know of any other organization that can assemble a huge staff of sort of make 'educated gueses' about the winners. USA Today does for each Olympics. Though Im not 100% sure that thier "research" isn't reading the SI olympic Preview issue. The picks are similar and just as inaccurate after all is said and done. Here is the link to their Athens picks. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/at...predictions.htm AJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 Though Im not 100% sure that thier "research" isn't reading the SI olympic Preview issue. Ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micheal_warren Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 USA Today does for each Olympics. Though Im not 100% sure that thier "research" isn't reading the SI olympic Preview issue. The picks are similar and just as inaccurate after all is said and done. Here is the link to their Athens picks. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/at...predictions.htm AJ Thanks for posting this link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amuller33 Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 Thanks for posting this link! no problem. IIRC they usally publish their list the day of the opening ceremonies. ESPN magazine usually has a partilal set of predictions-- anyone seen these yet? Also there was suppose to be a full set of Medal projections from AP via stats.com but I haven't seen them yet. Yes I am a fantasy olympics junkie and need all the projections I can get AJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 OK, Olym2004, so how did SI do for the rest of their '04 picks?Did they even hit 65%? I don't know -- I don't have the time to compare each of the 900-something picks with the real results. But I doubt that for the other medal picks, the error rate was much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citius Altius Fortius Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 I don't know -- I don't have the time to compare each of the 900-something picks with the real results.But I doubt that for the other medal picks, the error rate was much lower. mhh - maybe I will do that until 080808 I wouldn't take the prediction and watching in the real results and say yes or no - I wouldn't mention, who won in reality - just yes or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citius Altius Fortius Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 mhh - maybe I will do that until 080808I wouldn't take the prediction and watching in the real results and say yes or no - I wouldn't mention, who won in reality - just yes or no I am just recognising that this won't work - e.g. the prediction for athlete A is gold, but he/she got silver - it would be "no", but he/she got a medal - that is really complicated and takes time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian2004 Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 I am just recognising that this won't work - e.g. the prediction for athlete A is gold, but he/she got silver - it would be "no", but he/she got a medal - that is really complicated and takes time... Exactly. At first, I wanted to follow your "yes/no" concept as well, but I deemed it unfair if I had called a pick where they only predicted the wrong "medal colour" completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citius Altius Fortius Posted July 27, 2008 Report Share Posted July 27, 2008 Exactly. At first, I wanted to follow your "yes/no" concept as well, but I deemed it unfair if I had called a pick where they only predicted the wrong "medal colour" completely wrong. true - maybe it would be fair to give 3 points for every right "medal colour", but one 1 point for every wrong "medal colour"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daallo Posted July 29, 2008 Report Share Posted July 29, 2008 IMO, it should be 1 point if it is corrent, .5 if he got another color. BTW, for México: Spors Illustrated has almost the same prediction as me but not at the same time: Says gold for María Espinoza in Tae Kwon Do, I say gold. Bronze for Guillermo Pérez in Tae Kwon Do, I say silver. Bronze for Paola Espinoza in 10 meters Platform. I agree 100%. BRonze for Espinoza/Ortiz bronze in platform synchro. I'd put Yahel Castillo in the 3 meters trampoline for that bronze instead. I agree with Méxco having 4 nedals, but they say 0-1-3, and I say 1-1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchbearer AA Posted July 29, 2008 Report Share Posted July 29, 2008 OK, here are SI's medal picks for Germany from 2004 -- and their comparison with the real results:Equestrian Team jumping – Germany (Gold) correct, but later denied because of doping So they made only eleven correct picks in a total of 48. 21 were even completely wrong. And not to mention all the medal winners they didn't pick beforehand. I did'nt know that. Germany is not the olympic champion in the team jumping? Because if that's the case the fourth place is bronze now, that means the Netherlands have an extra medal in Athens 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchbearer AA Posted July 29, 2008 Report Share Posted July 29, 2008 I did'nt know that. Germany is not the olympic champion in the team jumping? Because if that's the case the fourth place is bronze now, that means the Netherlands have an extra medal in Athens 2004. I already see, it's Germany with bronze now and the USA with the gold and Sweden with the silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
can135 Posted August 1, 2008 Report Share Posted August 1, 2008 true - maybe it would be fair to give 3 points for every right "medal colour", but one 1 point for every wrong "medal colour"... Then there is the situation where right metal, but wrong athlete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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