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The 2016 Shortlist Are...


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First of all, I note with great interest you have not answered any of the questions as usual.

How do you commit things to a country you have negative thoughts about?

Explain that statement.

Provide a precise quote of a "negative thoughts" I would have had about a country.

It outstanding how you bring in things that can easily be forstall into the benchmark. Rios is seeing progress in those areas you`ve just listed. Don`t be surprise, I told!

What's outstanding is that you cannot read / think in a rational way.

I have asked you about a comparison between Rio, Chicago and Tokyo current status.

If you had any clue about anything, you would know that the experts compute their mark:

  • first by assessing current conditions for a given area
  • then by assessing what the situation of the given area would be in 7 years taking into account the planned and additional investments weighted by a feasibility factor

I have repeatedly acknowledged that Rio is making progress in the various areas listed. What I question is how fast the progresses are made and what's the risk that the plans might not be in place by 2016. That's why I said that Rio will progress but that it would most likely straddle the threshold not be above it.

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Pls, human being!

Jeremie you may as well be talking to this -

BrownBrickWall_tileable.jpg

Oh and I bet the brick wall makes more sense when it replies!!!

Have we forgoten about the whole talks on Beijing air pollution? And why some people don`t want the games to hold there?

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Besides the confident I have, which I pray not be eroded on that faith day,I beleive Rio would be shortlisted so that we can all relax our minds about our prejudices.

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Well, what about you and your 'rich, western countries' conspiracy'? Isn't that some sort of prejudice too?

Whatever happens on June 5th and if Obama loses in Rio, will you finally shut up?

OUR prejudices!

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Does any one else think Rio's logo looks like a vagina?

Just checking.

What!!!? MY GOOD JESUS! I am scared of some of you!

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Does any one else think Rio's logo looks like a vagina?

Just checking.

ROTFLMAO!!!

Shhhhh! I'm not sure if I remember what they look like anyway, and some youngsters here will have never seen one! ;)

What!!!? MY GOOD JESUS! I am scared of some of you!

Oops, you got in first! Well, there you go James, now you know!

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I say it will be this....

Madrid

Tokyo (2nd or 3rd)

Chicago (2nd or 3rd)

Rio

X Doha

X Prague

X Baku

I agree with this assessment. Tokyo and Chicago will love that Madrid will come out on top so they can fight over the underdog status. Geopolitics will keep Madrid out in the end while political pressure will jump Rio over the fence to the short list. Doha won't have the political backing needed. Prague and Baku are too weak. The contest itself will be a Battle Royale between Tokyo & Chicago with Madrid fighting a pointless geopolitical battle and Rio hoping to just come up the middle if the two big boys implode or polarize the IOC.

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I agree with this assessment. Tokyo and Chicago will love that Madrid will come out on top so they can fight over the underdog status. Geopolitics will keep Madrid out in the end while political pressure will jump Rio over the fence to the short list. Doha won't have the political backing needed. Prague and Baku are too weak. The contest itself will be a Battle Royale between Tokyo & Chicago with Madrid fighting a pointless geopolitical battle and Rio hoping to just come up the middle if the two big boys implode or polarize the IOC.

^^^^

Kiddies - I introduce to you the master who not only knows it but gets it.

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Tokyo and Chicago will love that Madrid will come out on top so they can fight over the underdog status.

I'm not so sure about this, you know. If Madrid does come out on top in the technical report it won't be by much and any pretence that Madrid are favourites and Chicago and/or Tokyo are underdogs, either by their bid teams or by their national press, will be unconvincing. Even those who don't follow these things closely know it's unlikely Europe will be awarded 2016 and the ranking in the technical report is unlikely to change that.

I think it would be a little bit shabby if either Chicago or Tokyo tried this tactic and, as I've said, will seem unconvincing.

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The only way I could see Madrid creating a major upset is with a 3-city shortlist, in which case, let's face it, technical merits won't help making the difference between the 3 cities.

In this case, at this very early stage, I can perfectly picture the three candidates roughly getting a 3rd of the votes each, which means any of them could be eliminated. If Madrid survives the first round then a strange combination of various factors could make it the eventual winner (but that's very very unlikely).

On the other hand, I think most of the sympathy votes that Rio or even Doha would get if shortlisted would come from Madrid backers more than from Chicago or Tokyo, which could lead to Madrid early exit.

So, if I were on Chicago team, I would pray for Rio and Doha to be on the shortlist.

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The only way I could see Madrid creating a major upset is with a 3-city shortlist, in which case, let's face it, technical merits won't help making the difference between the 3 cities.

In this case, at this very early stage, I can perfectly picture the three candidates roughly getting a 3rd of the votes each, which means any of them could be eliminated. If Madrid survives the first round then a strange combination of various factors could make it the eventual winner (but that's very very unlikely).

On the other hand, I think most of the sympathy votes that Rio or even Doha would get if shortlisted would come from Madrid backers more than from Chicago or Tokyo, which could lead to Madrid early exit.

So, if I were on Chicago team, I would pray for Rio and Doha to be on the shortlist.

Well, just for fun and as unlikely as it seems, what are the odds Rio will not shortlist? Frankly, I think it's unlikely given they were co-favorites for some along with Chicago to win it all, just speculating.

In my total non-professional, I'm-just-a-fan opinion: Chicago, Tokyo and Madrid are in come hell or high water. Rio should too because they do seem ready for this. Beyond that? Can't say.

Again, just my opinion, but I have a feeling Madrid may be more competitive then people guess. Yes, even with the rotation argument and problems with the heat, there is no denying Barcelona was successful and there has to be a desire by the IOC to go back, plus you know JAS is going to push as hard as he can to make it happen.

Only thing that could derail Tokyo is the rotation argument. 4 years after Beijing is awfully fast to be headed back to Asia, but I do like the bid they are putting forward in trying to make the best use of space that they can.

I'm highly highly HIGHLY prejudiced for Chicago though, as I've stated many times. My family is from the area, spent a lot of time on the North Side of the city and the bid centered along the lake front is just fantastic and will make for some great visuals. Only problem is concern over the stadium. That's something the bid folks really need refined in the next year because it is, after all, what effectively sunk NYC's bid for 2012.

Again, just my opinions based on what I know. I'll be researching and making more opinions after the shortlist and final evaluations are done. Heck, I thought Madrid might steal it from Paris in 2012 with London as the second choice. Shows how off I am!

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One thing to know is that the IOC is *highly* unpredictable. And Rio being 'co-favorite' along with Chicago is highly being made by the media & some of the people on these forums. When it all comes down to it, the IOC Evaluation Board is the one that's gonna make that final determination.

All in all, it's 50/50 at this pioint that Rio (or even Doha) would short-list, or not, for reasons that have been thoroughly explained on other past threads on these forums. Rio was also HIGHLY speculated to short-list for the 2012 Games, as well. But to most people's dismay, they were ousted (along with Istanbul, another city that was expected to be on it). I'm hoping Rio makes it, but it wouldn't be all that surprising if they didn't either (just like for 2012), cuz it would make for a very interesting race.

As for JAS, his influence among the IOC is starting to dwindle. And Tokyo 2016 would be 8 years after Beijing, not 4. Still, 8 years would still be too soon for Asia, but again, the IOC is highly unpredicatable, which is a solid reason not to easily dismiss Tokyo beucase that would be a huge mistake for any of the other candidates to do. Just like the same view that 2016 couldn't go back to Europe simply because of London, but who's to say really, other than the highly unpredictable IOC.

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my source near the IOC says:Chicago,Tokyo,Rio and Madrid

I think so, too. For the simple fact that a final 3 is too small; and would piss off the Brazilians/South Americans. So throwing in Rio would only alienate the Arabs, Prague and the Azerbajians -- really NOT major players in the Olympic movement yet. Plus, those 4 cities cover 4 continents; so it all looks universal and all that inclusive stuff...

And certainly, with the main stadia for Madrid and Rio* already built, Chicago having a temporary, hand-me-down stadium; Tokyo would be the only one to give the old geezers in IOC their biannual need for flashy stadium hard-ons. (And of course, the Japanese aren't all that flashy either.) So give them their 4 new logos to get excited about (if those will change). I mean all those bored D.O.M. have to get excited about something. <_<

And then, just let technical strength AND geopolitics take care of it.

*Of course, the only downside is that we still won't hear the end of the Looking-Glass views and opinions of our Resident World Class Olympic Expert Extraordinaire Bar None from the Cape of Good Hope...the little imp! Sigh.

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It comes down to this:

Chicago

Tokyo

Madrid - definites.

Rio

Doho - the unknowns.

Prague

Baku - good byeeeee.

You know what, I've got a sneaky feeling it'll either be a 3 city or 5 city shortlist with the IOC team either including both Rio and Doha or excluding both of them. Don't ask me why I think this, call it a hunch if you like.

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To be honest Id like some drama.

1. Prague shortlisted and not Rio or Doha ( the IOC feeling regardless of pragues disenthusiasm, its a capable modern european city)

OR

2. Doha shortlisted and not Rio

OR

3. Madrid's score dropping since the 2012 report (highly unlikely)

OR

4. The IOC making some strategic decision and scrapping the technical evaluation process.

"We announce that we have made a strategic decision to only select Rio De Janeiro, Chicago and Doha as Europe will host in 2012 and Asia in 2008"

OR

5. We are scrapping the voting procedure. Rio wins!!

or

6. "At this point in time we feel that Rio de Janeiro offers great promise for the Games in 2020 but may need to overcome serious challenges to host the world cup and olympic games within two years of each other. We therefore are making the decision to select the hosts of the 2016 and 2020 games in copenghagen in 2009. All cities will be considered for 2016 and 2020"

OR

7. 3 city shortlist

OR

8. Rio somehow in some way ranked ahead of Chicago in the eval report.

any other dramatic scenarios you guys would like?

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any other dramatic scenarios you guys would like?

Masked gunpersons, sporting heavy Azerbajani and Czech accents, storm the Chateau de Vidy on Tuesday and hold the staff hostage. Their demands are vague but they promise to release five hostages one-by-one if Chicago, Doha, Madrid, Rio and Tokyo pack up and go home. :blink:

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Lima shortlisted for 2016 and Abuja awarded 2020 12 years ahead of time to let JJ and James get everything ready!

(BTW, Mo, it's funny because a few years ago, I discussed with some IOC members the idea of selecting a host city 11 years ahead so that it would have more time to prepare... mixed results but some thought it was a very interesting idea and probably the only way for a "new frontier" Games any time soon).

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