And Shortlisted Are...

[ghost1]

Tokyo

Madrid

Chicago

Rio de Janeiro

Doha - a maybe

according to AP's sources within the IOC.

The eval report is still in preparations, but now we have first semi-official forecasts about the shortlist

A change in The BidIndex?

[baron-pierreIV]

If indeed that would be the case, then the IOC wants to keep it very 'international,' and perpetuate a 5-ness to it in conformance with (their) 5 rings. In other words, a 5-ring circus.

But this is good. It will split the Asian votes from the start bet Doha and Tokyo; and the Latin-Madrid bloc will likewise be split.

[FYI]

Exactly. I've also always thought the same. That having both, Tokyo & Doha would split the Asian votes, thus most likely reducing both of their chances. I would think the Japanese wouldn't want this. That's one of the reasons why I was always doubtful of Doha even making it as a finalists. Interesting though how the articcle gives the impression that Rio is almost a sure thing & that Doha would be a "maybe". I say by all means, include Doha too, so it could split the Asian votes right from the get go.

[dave199]

Would it matter if Doha and Tokyo split votes? Doha would most likely be the first city dropped from the ballot and the majority of the votes Doha received will all go towards Tokyo then.

[FYI]

Well, probably the most likely scenario. But some on here like to give Doha much more credi than it's entitled to, thinking that it perhaps could go all the way.That's why I find the article so interesting, that Doha could be a "maybe" for the SL. A very different view from what all the Doha trumpeters on here say.

[baron-pierreIV]

Would it matter if Doha and Tokyo split votes? Doha would most likely be the first city dropped from the ballot and the majority of the votes Doha received will all go towards Tokyo then.

Once a city drops though, it's always a scramble -- and the outcome becomes anyone's guess. But in this case, the closeness of Beijing to next year's vote will almost certainly be remembered; and similarly for those weighing between Madrid and which cities are left. Plus, people seem to forget that of the 2016 lot, Tokyo's already hosted.

[dave199]

Once a city drops though, it's always a scramble -- and the outcome becomes anyone's guess. But in this case, the closeness of Beijing to next year's vote will almost certainly be remembered; and similarly for those weighing between Madrid and which cities are left. Plus, people seem to forget that of the 2016 lot, Tokyo's already hosted.

I wouldn't really discount Tokyo that much because of Beijing. The pattern of having another Asian host 6 years after has to be broken at some point.

I don't think any city will win the majority of the vote after two rounds of voting. It'll probably go down to the last ballot. I feel confident that Chicago will make that final ballot regardless. The question remains which other city will join Chicago, it'll be either Rio or Tokyo. Do you think Rio would pose a greater threat to Chicago on the final ballot or do you think it would be Tokyo?

[dave199]

Well, probably the most likely scenario. But some on here like to give Doha much more credi than it's entitled to, thinking that it perhaps could go all the way.That's why I find the article so interesting, that Doha could be a "maybe" for the SL. A very different view from what all the Doha trumpeters on here say.

Who actually thinks they'll win? They be lucky to get 10 votes on the first ballot. Doha making the shortlist would be a great accomplishment on its own for them. That's all they can expect really.

[dave199]

I also wouldn't be surprised if Madrid has another strong showing here even though they are handicapped by Athens, London and Torino.

[baron-pierreIV]

I think Chicago's ace-in-the-hole would be Obama's (or Hillary's) appearance.

As of now, based on these 5, I would just hazard to guess if there's no majority in any round:

1st round - Doha out.

2nd - Madrid

3rd - Rio or Tokyo out

4th - Tokyo or Rio out.

[Stu]

You're all deluded if you think that there are huge block votes of "Latins" and "Asians". IOC members are all individuals each with a different bias. Not everyone in Asia will vote for either Tokyo or Doha, in the same way that not everyone in South American and the Mediterranean will be split between Rio and Madrid.

It's good to hear that Rio is likely to make the shortlist.

[baron-pierreIV]

You're all deluded if you think that there are huge block votes of "Latins" and "Asians". IOC members are all individuals each with a different bias. Not everyone in Asia will vote for either Tokyo or Doha, in the same way that not everyone in South American and the Mediterranean will be split between Rio and Madrid.

I agree with you. But it's just something to start with -- unless one knows for sure which city a certain delegate would FIRST go for. Invariably, the margins of error on all sides would cancel each other out; so you would more or less be left with the 'imagined blocs' to begin with.

[cfm Jeremie]

The report is mostly written. Although it will be released only in early June, it has most likely be written in second half of March, early April (as will probably be shown on the report first page).

From the rumours, my guess would be that Chicago, Madrid, Tokyo and Rio are above the threshold (although probably barely so for Rio) and that Doha straddles it. The Executive Board will decide on whether Doha will join the shortlist (if it were not for Almaty 2014, I would think that the IOC will admit Doha as a candidate city).

I agree the more candidates the better for Chicago (assuming they survive the first round -> Chicago needs to have a solid rock of at least 25 votes to win).

[Sir Rols]

Pretty well what most of us have predicted and expected, including the uncertainty about Doha.

[LA84]

Get back to me after Beijing. Because after some of the comments made from some of the IOC members after the recent Beijing protests it may come down, in a pinch, which countries leaders showed up at the Opening Ceremony, which countries leaders called for a boycott, which countries leaders showed up at the closing, etc. etc. etc.

We're talking 50-80 year olds here with huge egos.

As for the Latin/Asian bloc of votes I agree - that is delusional. Queen Sophia may be pissed that the Aqua Net hairspray she got from the U.S. made her helmet hairdo look too big and instruct the Spanish Olympic Committee to vote for Tokyo out of spite.

[Hobart]

Nothing really out of left feild with this. Should be an interesting race would like to think Rio would have a good chance.

[baron-pierreIV]

I know. I don't why it's news. I think it would've been more newsworthy if one of the leading 3 was declared ineligible.

[thatsnotmypuppy]

I will be reading the report very closely - especially if Rio makes it. Considering how far behind they were on a LOT of points for 2012 and how the only real difference is a handful of new venues (transport plan still looks dicey, as does security) I personally will be surprised if they shortlist. It will not be on real merit if they do.

[FYI]

The main reason why Rio (not to mention Istanbul) didn't make the 2012 cut was likely due to the fact that there were already 5 major global metropolises in the competition, so there really was no room for them. This time, we only have 3 global cities, so room for Rio exist & the IOC looks like they want to study the possibility more closly for finally taking the Games to South America for the very first time. Rio doesn't need to have the "best" bid, they just need to have a decent one & the IOC knows this. Beijing, afterall, was by far not the best bid of the lot in the 2008 race. I wouldn't neither be surprised or not surprised if they made it.

[Faster]

The main reason why Rio (not to mention Istanbul) didn't make the 2012 cut was likely due to the fact that there were already 5 major global metropolises in the competition, so there really was no room for them. This time, we only have 3 global cities, so room for Rio exist & the IOC looks like they want to study the possibility more closly for finally taking the Games to South America for the very first time. Rio doesn't need to have the "best" bid, they just need to have a decent one & the IOC knows this. Beijing, afterall, was by far not the best bid of the lot in the 2008 race. I wouldn't neither be surprised or not surprised if they made it.

But with Beijing, they did meet the technically requirements in the 2008, Istanbul straddled/just order the line and they were allowed to go through.

[FYI]

But with Beijing, they did meet the technically requirements in the 2008, Istanbul straddled/just order the line and they were allowed to go through.

And it looks like Rio may also meet the tech-req's this time around. And it's been highly theorized in the past, that the main reason Istanbul was included for 2008, was so Beijing wouldn't look dead last in the line-up. Cause if Istanbul wasn''t on there, Beijing, techninally speaking, would've been in last place.

[Faster]

And it looks like Rio may also meet the tech-req's this time around. And it's been highly theorized in the past, that the main reason Istanbul was included for 2008, was so Beijing wouldn't look dead last in the line-up. Cause if Istanbul wasn''t on there, Beijing, techninally speaking, would've been in last place.

I had heard that, I had just heard that the IOC kinda felt story for Istanbul.

[FYI]

Why would the IOC feel sorry for them. The IOC doesn't feel sorry for anyone. Yeah, they felt so sorry for them that they clearly dissed them for the 2012 cycle.

[cfm Jeremie]

Why would the IOC feel sorry for them. The IOC doesn't feel sorry for anyone. Yeah, they felt so sorry for them that they clearly dissed them for the 2012 cycle.

Actually, one of the factors that played a role is the personal intervention of the late Sinan Erdem before the IOC Executive Board. He was fearing that, should Istanbul not be included among the candidate cities, the Olympic Law could be cancelled. He pleaded that the Olympic Law being a key element in developing sports among the Turkish youth and therefore Istanbul bid should be encouraged. There was a debate among the EB and a vote to include Istanbul among the candidate cities.

[Faster]

Actually, one of the factors that played a role is the personal intervention of the late Sinan Erdem before the IOC Executive Board. He was fearing that, should Istanbul not be included among the candidate cities, the Olympic Law could be cancelled. He pleaded that the Olympic Law being a key element in developing sports among the Turkish youth and therefore Istanbul bid should be encouraged. There was a debate among the EB and a vote to include Istanbul among the candidate cities.

It is actually interesting to compare Istanbul's inclusion and Almaty's cutting considering both straddled the line.