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Toyko Is The Favorite!


LA84

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I agree...I think the final ballot will most likely be Chicago vs. Tokyo....Madrid will be out early...followed by Rio (this might be switched depending on how much merit is given to technical aspects of the bids over sentiments).....the only thing I can see changing this final setup will be if Rio comes sneaking in somehow knocking Chicago or Tokyo out in the second round of voting...

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I agree...I think the final ballot will most likely be Chicago vs. Tokyo....Madrid will be out early...followed by Rio (this might be switched depending on how much merit is given to technical aspects of the bids over sentiments).....the only thing I can see changing this final setup will be if Rio comes sneaking in somehow knocking Chicago or Tokyo out in the second round of voting...

With only four cities in the ballot, I expect a very close first round (remember that during the 2012 first round, NYC, Madrid, Paris and London were all within four votes - 19, 20, 21 and 22 if I remember correctly). If there is a sympathy vote in the first round (and I would suspect a sympathy vote would go to Rio or Madrid rather than Tokyo or Chicago), that means that any city (including Chicago or Tokyo) can be out early. And from then, anything can happen as to where the vote will go (the only most likely pattern I can foresee is that, should Madrid be out before Rio, most of Madrid votes would go to Rio; I don't have a clear idea about where Rio, Chicago and Tokyo votes would go if their candidate is out).

The 4 candidate will have to secure a bedrock of first round votes like never before.

(of course, should the IOC Evaluation Commission report give strong signals that Rio is not ready yet, the situation could change).

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the IOC's voting isn't that complex usually....if Rio gets a bad technical report it will be out first, if not it will most likely be Madrid...your completely underestimating the role of geopolitics here

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the IOC's voting isn't that complex usually....if Rio gets a bad technical report it will be out first, if not it will most likely be Madrid...your completely underestimating the role of geopolitics here

I have been involved in the Olympic bidding process for more than 12 years now, I am in regular contact with IOC members, bid committees, IOC staff...

The IOC voting is THAT complex. I was called a fool by some of the members here for betting on Sochi...

I am not underestimating the role of geopolitics.

It will play a role. However, geopolitics is slightly more complex than "Europe 2 in a row impossible".

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I have been involved in the Olympic bidding process for more than 12 years now, I am in regular contact with IOC members, bid committees, IOC staff...

The IOC voting is THAT complex. I was called a fool by some of the members here for betting on Sochi...

I am not underestimating the role of geopolitics.

It will play a role. However, geopolitics is slightly more complex than "Europe 2 in a row impossible".

still VERY unlikely that Madrid will win no matter how complex the IOC voting patterns are....like you said in another thread....impossible...no....very unlikely.....YES!

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For me Chicago is the favorite and Madrid the dark horse .

Rio is the dark horse, and I would say both Chicago and Tokyo are up there in that top tier....Madrid is just kind of a fourth city on the back burner that the IOC couldn't deny for the shortlist since the bid is technically strong...good back up to have, but the chances of them sneaking up for a win are MUCH more unlikely than they ever were in 2012...

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Rio is the dark horse, and I would say both Chicago and Tokyo are up there in that top tier....Madrid is just kind of a fourth city on the back burner that the IOC couldn't deny for the shortlist since the bid is technically strong...good back up to have, but the chances of them sneaking up for a win are MUCH more unlikely than they ever were in 2012...

Madrid would have probably won against both London and Paris in a final vote, so it wasn't that unlikely in 2012. For the majority of the race Madrid was the one tipped to upset Paris.

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  • 3 weeks later...

as far as im concerned madrid did just the best to beat all the other cities in the 1st ballot of 2012 vote.

tokyo has the big chance now but i think if im an ioc member... i think i had enough of this oriental style olympics... just enough okay...

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as far as im concerned madrid did just the best to beat all the other cities in the 1st ballot of 2012 vote.

Madrid actually topped the voting in the 2nd ballot not the 1st (where it came third).It then mysteriously dropped a vote in the 3rd ballot and was eliminated otherwise it would have tied with Paris for a 4th round run-off and may have won it.It might then have won the 4th round head to head with London.

Of the stories that circulated to account for Madrid dropping a vote in the 3rd round; one version has is that the Greek IOC member (a Madrid supporter) either hit the wrong button and accidentally voted for Paris in the 3rd round instead of Madrid or was too late to register his vote (the version supported by the IOC)!

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Of the stories that circulated to account for Madrid dropping a vote in the 3rd round; one version has is that the Greek IOC member (a Madrid supporter) either hit the wrong button and accidentally voted for Paris in the 3rd round instead of Madrid or was too late to register his vote (the version supported by the IOC)!

Nikolaou didn't vote in the 3rd round, that's a fact and could be seen in the live broadcast of the Session. So, even if he had voted, it wouldn't have changed a thing with Paris still having 1 more vote than Madrid.

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Nikolaou didn't vote in the 3rd round, that's a fact and could be seen in the live broadcast of the Session. So, even if he had voted, it wouldn't have changed a thing with Paris still having 1 more vote than Madrid.

Yes,you are right and that was the IOC's explanation too.I think it was Alec Gilady (I now recall) who put it about that Nicolaou had mis-voted in the 3d round and thereby deprived Madrid of going onto the 4th round and possibly winning!

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Be it the media, ATR, GB, GBidders, everyone seems to believe it's down to Rio Vs Chicago.

Well, I think it was Alejandro Blanco, president of the Spanish Olympic Committee (COE), the one who said what he thought was going to happen:

1. Tokyo or Chicago would lead in the first round and Rio would be the last.

2. In the second round, he said Chicago was going to be eliminated, because people that voted for Rio would now vote for Madrid.

3. Then he talked about the possibilities of Tokyo and Madrid: Tokyo has the disadvantage of Beijing 2008 just one year before the IOC session in 2009. Madrid's biggest problem is London 2012. However, it would be three years to go to the London Games so, of course, he said Madrid could win.

I don't think it will be Rio vs Chicago, but Chicago vs Madrid/Tokyo with Rio being eliminated in the first round ;)

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I think Rio's bid is the most overrated of all, really, the only strong point I see in Rio is the 'new frontier' concept , but technically is way behind the other cities , here in Brazil most people (including the sportive media) don't believe that Rio will be elected as the host city for the 2016 Games and even say that BOC is pushing an 'illusion' .

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I think Rio's bid is the most overrated of all, really, the only strong point I see in Rio is the 'new frontier' concept , but technically is way behind the other cities , here in Brazil most people (including the sportive media) don't believe that Rio will be elected as the host city for the 2016 Games and even say that BOC is pushing an 'illusion' .

The technically strongest bid very seldom wins (I can only think of Sydney and Salt Lake and possibly Vancouver)...

Rio might not have the strongest technical proposal but it was deemed good enough by the Applicant working group so, unless the Evaluation Commission comes up with a major flow, I don't think it will be a major issue at the moment.

Rio is conducting a smart campaign and, at the moment, has a strong sympathy current among the IOC. A lot can change until Copenhagen, but right now, things are looking rather good for Rio.

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The technically strongest bid very seldom wins

As the last IOC report, the strongest bid is Tokyo's, so it shouldn't win :P

Last years the winner city has been the fourth in the order of drawing of lots (London, Beijing). :lol: Why breaking a tradition?

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  • 7 months later...
I think Rio's bid is the most overrated of all, really, the only strong point I see in Rio is the 'new frontier' concept , but technically is way behind the other cities , here in Brazil most people (including the sportive media) don't believe that Rio will be elected as the host city for the 2016 Games and even say that BOC is pushing an 'illusion' .

You are talking about the media in Sao Paulo, people in Sao Paulo. I, actually, live in Sao Paulo and work for the media in Sao Paulo.

Of course, they are against just because stupid rivalry. I work with sports journalists and people here don't want SOG in Rio because carioca way of life - that stupid stuff: "they don't like to work, only to go to the beaches", "Rio is a small beach town, a province", "I can't stand up in Rio because I can became a target for bullets".

But when Sao Paulo presented a bid for 2012. The sportive media (from SP) did believe Sao Paulo could win, people were excited about it...

Polls shows 75% of Rio people is in favour, and more than 60% in entire Brazil. Get informed.

As usual, as you should be paulista, you think that the only opinion that matters in Brazil is from Sao Paulo people.

It's hard to bid to anything when, even foreigners cheers for us, but our neighbours don't.

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Dannyel, I don't believe that I'll see Sao Paulo hosting the SOG in my lifetime. In my opinion, Brazilian IOC members won't give up on the idea of having those Games in Rio so easily. They'll try until they finally get it. I can see Rio hosting in 2024 or 2028, but to host just two years after the WC, I don't agree with that.

Rio will very likely held the final match of the WC at the Maracana stadium, in a kind of revenge for what happened in 1950. The city will be shown to the world in all its glory , for a large number of viewers. And do you guys even want more in such short time ??? Cariocas, show us what You can do at the WC, do everything right and then deservedly get the SOG in 2024 or 2028. You're probably as young as me, we're all gonna be here to watch that (hopefully). But for me , 2016 is way too soon for Rio and I will continue to show my opposition here, even if Game bid members like you think the opposite. Trust me, rivalry is not involved on my feelings.

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You are talking about the media in Sao Paulo, people in Sao Paulo. I, actually, live in Sao Paulo and work for the media in Sao Paulo.

Of course, they are against just because stupid rivalry. I work with sports journalists and people here don't want SOG in Rio because carioca way of life - that stupid stuff: "they don't like to work, only to go to the beaches", "Rio is a small beach town, a province", "I can't stand up in Rio because I can became a target for bullets".

But when Sao Paulo presented a bid for 2012. The sportive media (from SP) did believe Sao Paulo could win, people were excited about it...

Polls shows 75% of Rio people is in favour, and more than 60% in entire Brazil. Get informed.

As usual, as you should be paulista, you think that the only opinion that matters in Brazil is from Sao Paulo people.

It's hard to bid to anything when, even foreigners cheers for us, but our neighbours don't.

Well, this explains very many things, sincerely I was amazed to read that somebody from Brazil was against the Olympics in his own country!

I knew about the rivarly, but I didn't think it would have come to this point!

I know, I know, in every bid/host city/country there is always an opposition for the games, but this is such an important occasion for Brazil......or would they only be the Rio Olympics?

Maybe this is the fact that Sao Paolo fears? All the attention to their rivals...?

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Well, this explains very many things, sincerely I was amazed to read that somebody from Brazil was against the Olympics in his own country!

Well, I've read on Internet many protests coming from Chicago where they make clear their opposition to the Games in their own city ! I mean, it's not even from people living in NY or Boston (dunno if there's a rivalry between chicago and other american cities, tho I'm aware that they some 'conflicts' with Toronto, but it's another country).Some residents of Chicago are not supporting their own bid .

Unless you live in a comunist country where those who disagree with government ideas are punished and treated like they were betraying the nation (China cough cough), a citizen is allowed to express its opinions, whether they're supportive or not. I don't think it's the right time for Brazil to take this huge commitment on having two major events in such short time . I'm scared that this could happen, and my pocket is also worried, we all know where the money will come from.

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Well, I've read on Internet many protests coming from Chicago where they make clear their opposition to the Games in their own city ! I mean, it's not even from people living in NY or Boston (dunno if there's a rivalry between chicago and other american cities, tho I'm aware that they some 'conflicts' with Toronto, but it's another country).Some residents of Chicago are not supporting their own bid .

The thing which shocked Lehari is that some people in Sao Paulo, according to Danny, are against the bid purely because it's in Rio.

This is why the Chicago comparison isn't valied. The NoChicago campaign (rightly or wrongly) have concerns over finance, the cost of facilities etc. and believe the loss would far outweigh the gain. They're against it becuase of practical reasons, not because of a rivalry.

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