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Karenina

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Everything posted by Karenina

  1. Lviv is an interesting option in the sense that it's near the Carpathian Mountains, which have never hosted an OWG. It has a lovely central European charm and beauty that is just different enough from Italy to work, should Sapporo, SLC and Vancouver all fall away. It would probably be in the IOC's better interest to get Sapporo and SLC or Vancouver on board for a double 2030-2034 award and push Lviv out to 2038 as a fallback when it is really in a position to want to return to Europe in case no other legitimate European bidders emerge in the meantime (it would be great if Barcelona-Pyrenees could get its political act together!).
  2. 4CCs was scheduled for Tianjin, not Beijing. IMO, this cancellation is only significant because of it's status as an ISU Championship. And, like I said on the 3rd, most FS fans have been holding their breath on whether or not 4CCs would be cancelled. 4CCs was scheduled for the 3rd week of January, just a few weeks before the Olympics start, so I'm sure that it was as much about making sure they have the people and resources focused on that rather than a continental skating championship. US Figure Skating announced, late last week, which US competitors have been assigned to the Asian Open Trophy. At this point, we're four weeks out from the event and given Monday's announcement about 4CCs, if it was being cancelled, we'd know by now. All that points to the Olympics being the sole and only focus of the CCP. FWIW - reading between the lines of the press release, it seems fairly obvious that the ISU also expected this and had probably already put out some feelers to member feds about hosting. The US submitted a bid for Boston to host the cancelled Cup of China Grand Prix stop but Torino was selected instead; and the US had submitted a bid to host the 2022 4CCs (either Lake Placid or Colorado Springs) when the ISU originally awarded them to Tianjin, as did Uzbekistan and Taiwan. So, while 4CCs is currently "cancelled", it won't surprise me in the least if US Figure Skating submits another bid in short order.
  3. Agreed. The OWG Figure Skating test event for Beijing is supposed to be the Asian Open Challenger in October and I'm rather skeptical it will actually happen. China backed out of hosting their usual Grand Prix stop in early November (though that was scheduled for Chongqing not Beijing) a few weeks ago but apparently Asian Open is still on, same with Four Continents Championships which is scheduled for Tianjin in January. I'm a little surprised they haven't already backed out of 4CCs given their travel restrictions and the fact that it isn't in Beijing nor is it the test event.
  4. The figure skating schedule is a compromise in so many ways. Not only is there the time shifting to put the men's and ice dance events in North American primetime since those are the disciplines the US has the best gold medal hopes (and Canada's only realistic medal hope is in dance, for that matter) in while women's and pairs are timed to European primetime but BOCOG has also changed the traditional order of events - usually it's been Team, Pairs, Men, Ice Dance, Women but this time it's Team, Men, Ice Dance, Women, Pairs because China is hoping to finish on the high note of a Pairs gold (provided that Sui/Han are healthy and can withstand the immense pressure they'll be under to deliver the gold that eluded them in Pyeongchang). And now, since Beijing has been allowed to mess with the traditional order of events, I'd bet hard cash that Milan will also change the order of events so that the discipline where they have the best medal hope is also last. I don't know that there will be outrage over all the possible things that could go wrong - not coming so soon in the wake of a successful Summer Olympics where things went right for the most part. What I do expect is that we will see a far greater outcry and criticism over the Chinese government's growing human rights atrocities among other things - Hong Kong, Taiwan, the South China Sea basin territorial disputes with all of their neighbors, and the list could go on for days. I'm sure NBC will do its level best to avoid all of that - and it makes me long for the Bob Costas to come back as anchor if only because he would insist on at least one hard-hitting editorial segment and that is something that should be discussed. I think Covid hurts the idea of a diplomatic boycott. Leaders and countries can just say "oh, we can't come because of your Covid restrictions" and sidestep the entire issue of whether or not they support Canada or any other countries that do publicly announce that they will engage in a diplomatic boycott. I do suppose that it is some small victory if all those Chinese multinationals aren't given an opportunity to hobnob with the global elite - but it's not really enough. And your last sentence sums up exactly WHY there is ZERO chance these Olympics will be postponed by one year. The IOC, at this point, has got to want to put the past several years of criticism into its rearview mirror and move full-speed ahead. The sooner they can take the focus off of the terrible choices that led them to selecting Beijing as host for these Winter Games and the fact that they're a glad, willing partner with a brutal, totalitarian dictatorship that is not above genocide, the better. Eighteen days of Olympic glory in six months and then the world moves on toward Paris and Milan and they can figure out who will host the 2030 and 2034 Winter editions. Sorry, I didn't realize you were based in the UK. Yes, Canada's system is very similar to yours.
  5. It's a darn shame the IOC doesn't have the cajones to tell China and it's government where to get off when it comes to which vaccines they will or will not accept. If that's the way China wants to play this, they probably will wind up with an international boycott or some other country organizing an alt-Olympics event, because refusing to accept athletes who have received vaccines from other nations (especially superior vaccines) and enforcing a two week quarantine would cause a major disruption to the training schedules of the foreign athletes. People already think China cheats to win medals - this would only reinforce that perception... "Can't win on a level playing field so you force all of the foreign athletes to sit around in their Olympic Village bedrooms for 2 weeks without being able to train and interact with their coaches and support staff."
  6. Hmmm... Wonder if they'll accept those vaccinated with Moderna, Pfizer, AZ, J&J, or Sputnik without requiring a quarantine? Sinovac is a **** vaccine but it's theirs so it'll be interesting to see how they treat athletes and officials who have received better vaccines.
  7. Yes, Canada does use FPTP like the US however the major difference is that the PM is the one whose party wins the most seats in Parliament. If the US had a parliamentary system it would mean the Speaker of the House is the equivalent to Trudeau. I'm not familiar enough with Canadian politics to know what a 6% point lead in the general polls translates to when it comes to winning enough individual MP races to take over as PM. I suspect O'Toole would act on implementing a boycott if other leading G7 and Commonwealth nations joined alongside him. Hard to say where the US administration will land on the subject in the end. A "diplomatic boycott" is a joke. I mean - what does that look like exactly? Do we really think IOC Members who are also heads of state or members of their countries' royal families will skip the Olympics? Please. That's a non-starter and we all know it. Beyond that, it is, to the world at large, a mostly invisible boycott. We get a few camera shots of the various heads of state or their spouses, etc in the luxury boxes during the opening and closing ceremonies and, if Beijing winds up spectator-less like Tokyo did, that will be it. This isn't going to be like 2018 with shots of the Dutch royal family in the stands madly cheering for their speed skaters, or even like this summer's Euro FC with the Danish, Belgian, and British royals in the stands at various matches as the tournament wore on. But, the thing is, while those pics and camera shots are always fun, lively, and nice, they are not what provides the real drama and story of the Olympics. Missing all those people didn't make Tokyo any less memorable or exciting for the general public watching from the comfort of their living room. And do we really think that a "diplomatic boycott" means that we won't get all of those heads of state and royal families tweeting and IGing in support of their nation's athletes? Hardly. It just means they won't make the flight to Beijing and gladhand with the IOC or CCP. From a face-saving perspective, a "diplomatic boycott" hardly hurts China. It's an empty gesture, IMO. And, knowing that it's an empty gesture leaves me torn because I love the Olympics but I hated Beijing when they were elected over Almaty and nothing that has transpired in the years since has improved my opinion of the Chinese government and how completely undeserving they are of hosting ANY Olympics, but not especially these ones coming up in a few months. I wish the IOC had had the spine to move the Games a year ago and told the CCP to sod off. As it is, I'll probably continue on my merry little way and disregard all of the obnoxious advertising from NBC's corporate sponsors while soaking up as much of the Olympics as I can live and take my planned PTO next winter to ensure that figure skating has my sole focus during the wee hours or whenever it winds up being scheduled to satisfy the whims of the major broadcasters (NBC is angling for the men's and ice dance free programs to be live in ET primetime, and it looks like Russia wants the women's free program live for their evening broadcast, and China plans on the pairs free program being live to their evening viewers so there's going to be a whole lot of annoying time-shifting going on and one out of whack sleep schedule for this diehard FS fan, lol).
  8. The IOC would be incredibly stupid if they entered into "Continuous Dialogue" with Russia at this point in time. They need to get Beijing and all of the criticism they've, deservedly, earned for awarding the the Olympics to Sochi and Beijing (both Summer & Winter) on the promises of improving human rights in those countries, not over-spending to build venues, etc in the rearview mirror before they engage Russia in talks to host a future Summer Olympics. Give 2036 to Germany (if they want it) or London (if they are serious about putting together a bid) and tell Moscow to wait until at least 2040, possibly longer.
  9. Knowing the CCP they'll bring in a bunch of Uighurs and Tibetans from their concentration camps to be spectators, completely unconcerned if they catch Covid and die after being in the stands to prove to the world that everything is really okay in China.
  10. I don't think China will be banning any countries from competing in the Winter Olympics, regardless of which vaccines their government has approved or not approved to date. It would be an incredibly bad look for them for a variety of reasons. 1) The virus did originate in China, so there are plenty of people who would be outraged and give the PRC major side-eye at any decision to ban athletes from countries struggling to come to grips with additional waves next fall/winter. 2) Which countries are they likely to ban? Most winter sports athletes from warm-weather nations have permanent training bases in places like the US, Canada or Europe - they're going to have access to the truly effective vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, AZ and J&J before the end of summer if they don't already, and China's not going to challenge the efficacy of those vaccines even if they aren't approved for use in China itself. Who is left? Russia and other countries with closer ties to Russia than western Europe who are using Sputnik V? Again, that vaccine's efficacy seems to be at least as good if not better than both Sinopharm and Sinovac. China's not going to ban any of the major winter sports nations without people thinking, cynically, that China's just trying to improve its own medal chances. 3) If anything, China is going to look at this as an opportunity for the world to truly emerge from, by then, 2+ years of global pandemic, especially since there won't be any overseas spectators in Tokyo and there might not be any spectators at all. They are going to bend over backwards to make sure that any and all nations that want to participate are there. Having said all that - I've felt for the better part of the last year that the IOC should have moved these Winter Olympics from Beijing. China doesn't deserve to have the opportunity to look good around the world - not after the pandemic and the human rights abuses - notice how this really got the annihilation of Hong Kong's Basic Law out of the headlines.
  11. Can this one get scrapped in a logo rip-off scandal like the original Tokyo 2020 logo?
  12. I think it depends on the European city bidding... If it's Oslo then I'd give bet solid money on Oslo beating Vancouver, same with Munich (though they're not interested so that's a moot scenario). But if it's Zakopane... Vancouver probably wins. Stockholm or a Spanish bid might have a chance against Vancouver. I don't think that the continental rotation is nearly as much of a factor as it used to be, not especially when the IOC has struggled to keep European nations from bowing out of the bidding process entirely.
  13. Because the three that are interested are from countries they'd be fine with hosting the WOGs? Because the three NOCs aren't headed by Coates?
  14. Kudos to his male staff members who called him out at the time for the comment. Perhaps a sign that things are changing in Japan in that regard.
  15. What about northern Africa? Cairo possibly?
  16. Zagreb has hosted several major figure skating competitions in the last several years including the 2019 World Junior Figure Skating Championships and 2013 European Figure Skating Championships. They're a proven host and having 2021 Euros cancelled is hardly a major mark against the city. They get great marks from most fans who attend competitions there. In all likelihood, Zagreb will probably be awarded host city privileges for Euros 2024 to make up for this year assuming they want it. The ISU gave 2023 Four Continents to Sydney as a make-up for having to cancel 2021 4CCs which they were slated to host. Probably the only reason the same didn't happen for 2023 Euros is that the ISU waited until December to cancel Euros and by then they'd already awarded 2023 Euros to Helsinki, whereas the 2021 4CCs cancellation was made prior to the awarding of the hosts for the major 2023 championships (Worlds, Jr Worlds, Continentals, Synchro Worlds and Synchro Jr Worlds).
  17. I don't post here often but I've skimmed through this thread and just have to say... All of you Anti-Trumpers are idiots and really don't understand him at all if you think, for one hot second, that he's going to go down the "boycott the Beijing 2022 Olympics" road during a second term. His whole mantra is MAGA. It's about America WINNING. He's going to want our athletes going into Beijing and kicking some Chinese ass and beating them in the medal count. Furthermore, while 2028 is after he is out of office, you can bet your bottom dollar that he will absolutely be present and ready during the Paris 2024 Closing Ceremonies to accept the handoff of the Olympic Flag on behalf of the USA. He's not going to piss on the IOC. They're not the UN or NATO. He's all about the show and the extravagance and won't pass up an opportunity to rub shoulders with the various royals and jet-setters who run the IOC.
  18. I read this article earlier and the implication I came away with was that Reno-Tahoe couldn't see a way to make their financials work - there are infrastructure needs that exist for Reno-Tahoe which simply do not exist for SLC, regardless of which Games they wind up hosting. With most of the necessary infrastructure and major sites already in place, SLC is in a far better position to earn money if they do host in 2030, even if LA does have exclusivity over the marketing rights through 2028. Now, 2026 might be a different animal, but you can be assured that the IOC and USOC will bend over backwards to make SLC a reality if both Sweden and Italy bow out of that race, even if that means giving LA more money for lost marketing opportunities.
  19. That would be a small guarantee, and just for the first few days of the WOG, since the only qualified NK athletes are their pairs figure skating team and the pairs competition will be over by the middle of the first week. All Kim would need to do is bring them home as soon as their competition is over and then there would be nothing restraining him.
  20. If the US bid city fares as poorly in the voting as NYC and Chicago did then, yes, that will alienate the USOC from the IOC again. But, I don't think that's going to happen with the 2024 voting. As long as LA finishes a respectable 2nd to Paris then the USOC nor LA are going to necessarily feel snubbed like they were, especially in 2016. There's no shame in losing to Paris in the final round of voting and that's what I fully expect will happen. Budapest will be out after the 1st round, then Roma will drop, and Paris will take it in the 3rd round of voting. It probably won't be as close as, say, London-Paris or Beijing-Almaty, because like many others here, I think this race is Paris' to lose. But, I do believe that LA has a very strong plan and there will be sufficient enough support for LA to get them to the final round of voting. I also suspect that there will be a fair bit of "please come back for the 2028 bidding" quiet remarks shared over drinks and behind closed doors to the USOC and the LA organizers, both before and after the vote. I also completely agree that as long as the US is selected to host a SOG before 2032 then NBC, and the USOC, will be perfectly happy. NBC probably won't want to wait another 15 years (from the time the vote is taken in 2017) and I'd bet they also encourage the USOC and LA to bid again for 2028 should they lose the 2024 vote.
  21. Have to agree with those who don't see the single-run downhill going anywhere. If your city isn't close enough to a mountain big enough for an Olympic/World Cup level downhill run then you have no business even considering a bid for the WOG. I also agree about the sliding center being the bigger issue. Nacre mentioned Portland and Seattle as being close to their mountains. I can't speak to the feasibility of Seattle hosting a WOG but there's no way it will happen in Portland. While Portland currently has two 10,000-seat arenas, there's been talk this fall about demolishing Memorial Coliseum - not to mention hosting the Olympics would displace both the Trail Blazers and the WinterHawks for 2+ weeks. And there aren't any 5,000-seat arenas in the area nor is there a need for any - Chiles Center at University of Portland seats just over 4,800 but I don't think it's convertible to ice and I can't imagine that UP would be willing to displace their athletics teams for 2 weeks. None of the other universities in the region have arenas that seat more than 2,500 unless you want to drive down to Corvallis or Eugene, and that's not something that would happen for an Olympics bid, plus you run into the same issue as you would at UP - those arenas are used for the universities athletics programs and wouldn't be available. And that doesn't even touch on how unnecessary a speed-skating oval is for the region. I suppose something that could be converted into a community recreation/activities center like the one in Richmond BC is a possibility with the various neighborhood re-development districts within the City of Portland. Even if the nordic events were farmed out to Mt Bachelor (which I would expect in any serious discussion about Portland hosting), I'm not sure where a sliding center would go. There's no way it would be built on Mt Hood. Maybe Mt Bachelor if the nordic events are also placed there. It would still be a monstrous albatross. And therein lies the rub... Even if Portland had the necessary arenas, or the necessity and will to build them, there's still no way that the State of Oregon would ever build an Olympic sliding center just for the Olympics. There would, guaranteed, be a referendum, possibly statewide if a sliding center was proposed for Mt Bachelor or state monies were involved, and it would fail. Sporty we might be but no way would the money be forthcoming unless Phil Knight and Paul Allen anted up privately, lol.
  22. Why are we rehashing the 2022 vote in the Potential 2026 & 2028 bids thread?
  23. Agreed. In hindsight, any city the USOC would have put up for a 2022 bid would have come away the winner a day ago but, really, I can't fault them for focusing on a SOG. While SLC was 13.5 years ago, it is still more recent than Atlanta, which was 19 years ago. By the time 2024 rolls around, it will have been 28 years since the US last hosted a SOG, even longer if we have to wait until 2028 thanks to the Boston debacle. While I personally love the WOG more than the SOG, I can see why the USOC wants the SOG more and why we probably won't try for another WOG until after we've hosted a SOG. There's no way the US hosts another WOGs until the 2030s, I don't think, with 2030 only a possibility if the USOC gets very lucky and all the strong European 2024 contenders drop out of the race.
  24. Here's the key problem with Beijing's presentation today (at least for me, and probably for a lot of others around here)... Jawnbc called the Chinese Premier's message "passionless" and that is spot on, not just for the premier's message but for the entire presentation. Contrast that to fourteen years ago when Beijing was bidding for the 2008 SOG, where their drive and determination was palpable. This was uninspiring and lifeless in comparison. Maybe I'm just too caught up in hoping that Almaty wins. I like different. I like new. I think that Central Asia is a fascinating place and would love to visit there, even if it's just through my television set for two weeks in February 2022. China, especially Beijing, is really "been there, done that" proposition.
  25. Great presentation from Almaty. Let's see what Beijing brings before we handicap the final vote. But, having said that, I'm crossing my fingers for Almaty's success!
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