If Tokyo lose the first round... what I think it will happen, Madrid will win.
Some muslim countries will vote for Madrid instead of Istanbul, because Doha and Dubai will bid for 2024. US and Canada will vote for Madrid because Toronto and Los Angeles will bid for 2024 and Madrid 2020 can stop many european bids for 2024.
Don't you think the same?? And it is obviously, the relations with Spain... Russian and Chinese members, will vote for Madrid.
Madrid 2020!!!