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Everything posted by stryker

  1. Well this raises a whole other issue. How many IFs, especially those that are smaller and survive on Olympic money, how many will go bankrupt the longer this crisis goes on as events are either cancelled or rescheduled? Your heavyweights like FINA, IAAF, and FIFA can manage but others may not. Frankly I think the IOC could save some money if the likes of tennis, golf, and football sat this next SOGs out.
  2. https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1092504/tokyo-2020-president-warns-ifs-costs So now the discussion has turned to "how are we going to pay for this?" and it seems Tokyo is eyeing the respective IFs to chip in. The question remains how much extra cash will be needed and which federations pay. To add onto that, suppose an IF says no, how would Tokyo and IOC react? Threaten the IF with removal for the Tokyo Olympics? Hard to see how that would work with IFs like FINA or IAAF. Regardless, the money has to come from some where and while we don't have official figures yet, I'd venture to say that Tokyo doesn't have the cash to pay for all the costs themselves.
  3. I'd add Fukuoka 2021 to that list as well (FINA World Championships).
  4. I think a lot of it had to do with the effect COVID-19 would have on the Japanese economy. Their economy was already teetering on the edge of a recession. Now the question isn't whether or not Japan will go into recession but how bad it will be. And Shinzo Abe, like all politicians in democratic nations, often take the fall for a faltering economy come election time. I mentioned earlier there was an article stating cancelling the Olympics would shave 1.4% off Japan's annual GDP so I imagine Japan was probably desperate to hold the Olympics to avoid any more adverse effects on the economy.
  5. This removes the last hurdle for Ballmer to get his ne w Clippers arena which probably means it's only a matter of time before the Forum faces demolition, and probably well before 2028.
  6. No but there will be WC qualifiers. There will need to be some negotiation between FIFA and the IOC.
  7. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/2020-tokyo-olympics-postponed-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic/ar-BB11A7TY?ocid=spartandhp Looks like it's official. Postponed but no date given. My guess is the IOC and the organizing committee will hash those details out over the next four weeks.
  8. If the Olympics are indeed being postponed to next summer how might scheduling work out with Euro moves to summer 2021 as well. Might be best for football to be dropped from the Olympics this go around
  9. I don't disagree. My point is it will be impossible to simply postpone the Olympics and have them go on as they would. The OV? I assume you'd have a smaller number of athletes participating that probably would stay in hotels (I'm not familiar with property laws in Japan so I don't know if there is any way the government could step in and hold off on people moving in until the following year). I'd expect smaller crowds, maybe even some events being moved to smaller venues. In terms of alternatives outside of cancellation, the only other one that comes to mind is giving Tokyo the 2032 Olympics so they can still use most of the venues though they'd probably need some touching up after 12 years and I am sure by that point Tokyo would need additional housing so a 2nd OV would be built. Needless to say, it would still be a costly decision.
  10. The logistics of a postponement seem impractical to overcome (isn't the Olympic Village set to have tenants move in shortly after the Games?) IN\n addition to all the accommodation as far as hotels and ticketing, if we do see a postponement, then I think we see a highly scaled down version of a Tokyo Olympics, one that probably also comes in at a loss financially. I'd have to search for the link but it was from insidethegames, a cancellation of the Olympics would shave off something like 1.4% of Japan's annual GDP. That doesn't seem like much until you consider the fact that Japan is already in the beginnings of a recession.
  11. Turning a speed skating oval into a public ice skating venue worked for Vancouver and I agree it's not a an exorbitant amount of taxpayer money to spend but I'd argue Vancouver is a winter sports city, way more than Milan. I could see Milan trying the same thing but how much use would it actually get? Pine Mountain in Michigan regular hosts the Continental Cup? How much use to ski jumps actually get though if they are not part of the regular FIS calendar? Nansen in New Hampshire is on the national register of historic places. Speaking of Canada, Calgary couldn't even find the funding the rebuild their ski jumps for their failed 2026 bid and had to use Whistler instead. Interesting you mentioned Bakke Hill Ski Jump. I had a student about a year ago create a mock Seattle WOGs bid for a class project and one of his proposals was to rebuild Bakke Hill. His plan also included the sliding track at Whistler and a speed skating oval that would become a community ice skating rink.
  12. Thomas Bach is like the lone guy standing in a burning building saying everything's fine while everyone else is fleeing for safety. Then again, he's smart enough to know the gravity of situation and the likely effects cancelling the Tokyo Olympics would bring. I raised the issue about postponement in another thread, but after reading this, that is a clear no go. So what are the other options? I read a BBC article this morning that said mentioned the possibility of the Olympics going ahead behind closed doors with no spectators according to Stephen Park, performance director of British Cycling. The same article also stated an unnamed IOC member who said the possibility had been discussed. It wouldn't be ideal and there'd still be some huge losses but NBC and their advertisers wouldn't take a huge hit, though CNN reports that NBC is insured if the Olympics are cancelled. A cancellation would be a financial disaster. Tokyo literally would be left with purpose-built venues like the rowing course, aquatics centre, Ariake Arena, and the Gymnastics Arena that would have no defined use in Olympic mode. Sure they could be scaled down for legacy purposes but still at a loss. I'd question if a Tokyo cancellation would dampen Sapporo's Olympics aspirations as well. I could see a situation where the public, already weary of the money losses, says no thank you to a WOGs. Promising Tokyo the 2032 Olympics as a consolation prize? Well, it would at least ensure the venues get used, though after 12 or 13 years they'd need some touch up. Then there's the fact that Tokyo would have to build an entirely new Olympic Village since the current one is set to be leased out. Combine the costs for preparing for 2020 and then for 2032 and you'd likely have the most expensive Olympics in history. Meanwhile, Bach and co. are secretly hoping the warmer weather causes COVID-19 to go away.
  13. I'd say the speed skating oval and ski jumping complex is almost as problematic as the sliding track. In terms of the IOC showing that the era of the white elephant venue is over, I'm very skeptical Milan-Cortina can do that. Milan needs two ice hockey arenas and a speed skating oval, none of which have any concrete plans post-Olympics (Pyeongchang has the same problem). If that happens then Milan-Cortina could be the death knell for the WOGs in Western Europe. If Torino gets back on board as they can provide the ice hockey arenas and the oval then the bid has a real shot as being the first WOGs to avoid the dreaded white elephants.
  14. https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1091092/world-rowing-long-beach-los-angeles-2028 So apparently World Rowing is still studying whether or not to relocate the rowing competition from Lake Perris to Long Beach. I thought this had already been decided. Also didn't know the Long Beach course would be significantly shorter (1500 m instead of 2000m). I mentioned this earlier in the thread but Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has been trying to get a new arena built in Inglewood for the Clippers but his plan has been blocked repeatedly by MSG, the owner of the Forum, for fear of losing events. Well now it seems Ballmer is buying the Forum from MSG which clears the path for his new arena to be built. The question then becomes what happens to the Forum? With SoFi Stadium and a new Clippers arena, I can't see the Forum being kept around, even for the Olympics. The Clippers new arena is set to open sometime in 2024-2025, well before the Olympics. My guess is the Forum is eventually demolished and the gymnastics competition is moved to the Clippers new arena. https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-03-02/steve-ballmer-buys-forum-future-clippers-inglewood
  15. I think the IOC and Tokyo organizers are hoping that with the summer heat that the COVID-19 will go away. If it continues, it's hard to see how the Olympics go on as planned with the prospect of mostly empty venues and possibly even denying entry to teams such as China and South Korea. Much has been made about the cash hit sponsors would take not to mention many of the venues are Olympic-purpose built and either reduced in size or dismantled entirely afterwards. If the Olympics were cancelled for Tokyo this would be even worse than the dreaded white elephants. IMO, I could see the Olympics being postponed, perhaps moved to summer 2021. I know there'd be quite a few logistical headaches to work out not to mention maybe some renegotiations with the likes of NBC, but it would be netter than an outright cancellation or trying to relocate the Olympics last minute.
  16. The problem is the people don't want the Olympics. That was evident in the referendum that doomed Munich's 2022 candidacy. Any Munich bid would need Garmisch anyways and from my understanding that's where most of the opposition came from.
  17. Why would Vancouver need a speed skating oval? If they did, they would've kept the one at Richmond. It would be a waste of money to build another so soon after repurposing the 2010 venue. A better more financially feasible option is using the oval in Calgary. If Paris can have surfing halfway around the world in Tahiti, then I am sure the IOC would have no problem with a Vancouver bid using the Calgary oval (remember Calgary's failed bid relied on the ski jumps in Whistler). In terms of a curling venue, no need to build anything new either. Langley Events Centre or another suitable indoor venue would suffice. Regardless of what becomes of Vancouver's Olympics ambition, I do believe that it's only a matter of time before Vancouver and Whistler replace WinSport at Calgary as Canada's primary winter sports training centre with the exception of speed skating. A future bid would give Vancouver the opportunity to touch up the 2010 venues for that purpose. With Hamilton also pushing for a CWGs, would this take precedence over a second WOGs bid in the same year? I cannot see Canada trying for both.
  18. Why go for Northern England bid though when London has almost everything ready to go? Even with the IOC accepting regional bids, if a compact sustainable low-cost option is available, and London fits that description, why opt for a regional bid? The IOC maybe open to the idea of a regional bid but if a compact one presents itself I can't see it being turned down.
  19. I see a big difference though between the bidding climate today and that of 40 years ago. In addition to social media, the Great Recession led to a wave of economic populism throughout the western world with a renewed conscious about how tax money would be spent. and based on the numerous referendums that have said no to Olympic bids, that's the driving force the IOC hasn't quite figured out. Could a successful Olympics in Paris and Los Angeles help? Definitely but part of that criteria for success will be if those Games than stay on budget and deliver some sort of surplus or break even. The WOGs are practically on life support after the last two races, and Milan-Cortina has the potential to get very expensive quickly with all the new venues they need (I still think when those costs start coming out you will see CONI beg Turin to rejoin as was the original plan). Salt Lake City and to an extent Sapporo offer the IOC essentially what Paris and Los Angeles offer, a reasonable lower-cost bid. The question is whether or not that will be enough to skeptical tax paying citizens that the Olympics can be a worthwhile investment.
  20. Back when it looked like the Calgary bid would via a referendum I mentioned the idea of Canada giving another go at the WOGs with Vancouver. It makes sense. They have everything in place from 2010 with the exception of an Olympic Village and the need for a speed skating oval. since the Richmond Oval cannot be repurposed if memory serves me correctly. Vancouver could easily use the one in Calgary. The question is of course whether or not Vancouver would want to host again as has been mentioned.
  21. Seems like a noble effort but is there any indication the Dutch government would even consider the idea? Given the size and scope of the SOGs, I highly doubt one city alone (Amsterdam or Rotterdam) could pull this off. It would have to be a country-wide bid.
  22. The topic has been discussed in another thread. The stadium issue is the sticking point but if FC Koln wants a new privately owned stadium then I suppose that's a possible starting point. An even bigger hurdle would be the likelihood of a referendum across multiple locations. I'd like to see the DOSB give this a go as the concept would completely revolutionize SOGs bidding.
  23. https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1090145/sofi-stadium-los-angeles-2028 I read just recently that SoFi Stadium is nearing completion but what jumped out in this article is the headline listing the stadium for the opening and closing ceremonies. Did LA decide that both ceremonies will be at the new stadium rather than holding the closing ceremonies at the Coliseum?
  24. I suspect the IOC politely told India no for 2032 and recommended the consolation prize of the YOGs. I expect you'll see the same scenario with Jakarta in the coming months as well (wouldn't surprise to see Indonesia launch a YOGs bid). The IOC is not in the business of going to the developing world anytime soon.
  25. 2034 is more likely with Salt Lake in for 2030. A Sapporo Olympics in 2030 would give Asia 3 of the past four WOGs and there's no guarantee Salt Lake would go again in 2034.
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