Jump to content

stryker

Members
  • Content Count

    1297
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

Posts posted by stryker


  1. So another "NoOlympics" group though this one is different given its the political opposition rather than a grassroots movement which ended the likes of Boston, Calgary, and Hamburg. Given that elections aren't set to be held until October, what is the realistic chance the ONP wins a majority then announces they end the bid? I don't know too much about Australian politics, but the phrase "right-leaning" caught my attention given the success of some of these groups in elections elsewhere.


  2. 2 hours ago, Nacre said:

    This is a bit disingenuous, though, considering that the structures that need to be built are the most expensive venues. There are many cities that are "only" lacking the main stadium, aquatics center, and two large arenas for gymnastics and basketball.

    I thought the exact same thing when I saw the 80% figure cited. In addition, how many of the planned venues are simply listed as legacy opportunity. The feasibility study simply called them community centres, not exactly a viable legacy as has already been pointed out. I'm a bit perplexed on the main aquatics venue. I get the idea of using a planned arena but I would assume that arena is the Brisbane Live Arena which seems like it is also marked as the basketball arena unless there's a second arena also being planned? And the stadium issue will continue to be a problem. Brisbane is relying on the much talked about but failed stadium with huge amounts of temporary seating. Now going from 55,000 to 30,000 might be easier than say London's original plan or the Incheon Asian Games Stadium fiasco, but it still leaves the city with a stadium with no permanent tenant. It's a big assumption to assume a team will be ready to move in.

    A few weeks back I remember an article here dismissing an idea of co-hosting with New Zealand. While I think that's definitely out, it would not surprise me to see Sydney included in the final venue plan especially when the costs start going up for some of these new venues. Brisbane has no need for a rowing or slalom canoe course when Penrith Lakes would work just fine. I could even see the likes of Acer Arena included.


  3. I still think one of, if not the main reason for the creation of YOGs was to use them as a consolation prize for countries that do not stand a remote chance of hosting the real thing. Sure the IOC started out with the likes of Singapore and Nanjing but this was more to give the YOGs a solid footing. Since then they've branched out to the likes of Buenos Aires and now Dakar. Going to Dakar means the IOC can finally say they brought the games to Africa, but it does not look as though Dakar is up to the challenge. I could definitely see the IOC calling on Morocco or perhaps Brazzaville which hosted the 2015 African Games and has the venues needed.

    • Like 1

  4. A year and a half later Dakar has still not set up an organizing committee or released any type of budget. Kristy Coventry has made her concerns known. Wonder if this forced venture into Africa is going to turn out for the IOC the same way Durban turned out for the CGF? I think the IOC will wait as long as they can but I would not be surprised to see Dakar stripped of the YOGs in the not too distant future.


  5. Seems like Brisbane's to lose, but $4.4 billion? Are they serious about hosting a SOGs for this? I am assuming they aren't factoring in costs for transportation improvements. Even so, Brisbane is woefully short on the venue front (I highly doubt an 80,000 or 60,000 seat Olympic Stadium will be temporary). I'll be interested to see what an actual venue plan looks like. Compared to Mebourne, the only thing Brisbane has going for it is the weather but if Coates really pushed for Brisbane, I'll be interested to see how spins this when the actual costs start coming out because these figures are in fantasy land.


  6. https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1088854/los-angeles-2028-metro-funding-gap

    While it's not unusual for public transportation projects to be over-budget, needing "billions of dollars" to complete all nine lines seems like a bit much. I haven't been to LA in years but how much of these upgrades or new lines can LA afford not to have and still be able to shuttle people around for the Olympics? Seems like lines such as the transit line through Sepulveda Pass would be necessary for spectators to reach the Valley Sports cluster.


  7. On 6/22/2018 at 9:38 PM, Nacre said:

    I think the sports facilities are a lesser concern than the fact that they simply don't have the tourist infrastructure needed.

    • Budapest's airport has only 11 million annual passengers; that is comparable to Stuttgart or Salt Lake City. Athens handles 20 million annual passengers, and they would never have been given the games if Athens did not happen to be in the home country of the ancient Olympics. My home town of Seattle has 47 million annual passengers, and London's second largest airport has 43 million annual passengers.

    This. Even with those low numbers, Budapest's airport struggles to handle 11 million annually especially during the tourist season in the summer months where there are almost always significant delays. If they cannot handle tourist season (and it's not a big number) how could they handle the traffic during the Olympics? American Airlines just started seasonal flights to Budapest and the main reason it took so long was difficulty getting slots at the airport.


  8. FIFA is leaning towards the WWC being held every two years now instead of four. I wonder if this announcement had something to do with a Australia and New Zealand deciding to pursue a joint bid. Less preparation time needed perhaps than if either went about this bid alone? 

    Would really like to see a WWC final in either Sydney's rebuilt Olympic Stadium for Eden Park in Auckland.


  9. Jakarta is a non-starter and the IOC will politely tell them not to go ahead with this. I've said before, the IOC needs solid bids with minimal finance for venue and infrastructure construction., not to mention security. That rules out the likes of Indonesia, India, all of South America and Africa. Realistically, the IOC is probably only seriously considering bids from the following regions/countries

    USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, China, Western Europe, Russia (doping scandal could be an issue here). That's it. I cannot see the IOC taking any chances on going to the developing world after the Rio debacle which was worse than Athens and I don't see them entertaining the likes of Budapest and Belarus in Eastern Europe either. Makes sense why an Australian bid is a big favorite right now.

    • Like 1

  10. Hindsight is always 20/20 but looking back on Pyeongchang and all the legacy problems they have had, what if Agenda 2020 and the New Norm had been enacted by the IOC earlier? Would Korea have chosen Seoul as its WOGs candidate? Looking back, Seoul would have most of the indoor arenas in place along with options for a ceremonies stadium and it's not that far from Seoul to Pyeongchang (Pyeongchang would've kept the ski events). It's certainly a smaller distance than Milan to Cortina.


  11. On 10/12/2019 at 12:01 AM, Booville said:

    For Lillehammer to add those additional sports would be minimal ... Kanthaugen hosted freestyle skiing and half-pipe, and Hafjell the slopestyle in 2016, the curling already has a purpose built arena and there is likely to be enough capacity to host additional women's hockey games

    A games encompassing the true spirit of the games vs a games forever tainted by bribery ... clearly an easy call

     

    Lillehammer does not have a second 10.000+ arena needed for an Olympics and it would be ridiculous for them to build one. Hakons Hall and the Olympic Amphitheatre could host ice hockey at capacities of 10,500 and 7,000 respectively.  Gjovik at a smaller capacity of 5,000 could host curling. Oslo already has an indoor arena, a much newer one at that, in Telenor Arena for figure skating and short track (this was the proposed venue for the respective sports in Oslo's aborted 2022 bid). The WOGs have grown in massive size since 1994. Beyond just venues, Lillehammer does not have the transportation infrastructure that Oslo has to handle a WOGs on its own. Then there's the matter of an Olympic Village. I'd imagine Oslo would be much more in need of public housing in a post-Olympics than Lillehammer would.

    • Like 1

  12. A bit of a head scratcher but if Doha is serious about this, then the sheikhs may have finally realized an Olympics isn't going to happen and the best they can hope for is the Asian Games (it would be their second go around as the host).

    As for the IAAF World Championships, it's a disaster. Crowds are sparse and there are serious concerns about the marathon in the humidity. Of course Qatar is blaming everything on the Saudi-led blockade as they do for everything that doesn't go there way these days.

    • Like 2

  13. On 9/15/2019 at 8:16 PM, anthonyliberatori said:

    Great choice. Hopefully the increased train service to Cortina become a regular thing so Italy can capitalize on the skiing business during the season for years to come. That makes it very easy for tourists to fly into MXP, a major airport, and then take the train right to Cortina. Ensures longevity with tourism.

     

    Ultimately, this was the right choice. Stockholm/Are/Latvia was not in favor of the people and opened up a marketing nightmare we all know the IOC did not want to have to deal with if they didn't have to. Milan/Cortina's "two cluster" approach is very similar to those of Vancouver, Sochi and Pyeongchang, which I personally think is an good way to utilize existing infrastructure from an urban area, develop a smaller winter resort town nearby, and hope a tourism business sticks. Also, the support in Italy is immense, and the proximity to nearby countries ensures full venues for events like speed skating (the dutch), curling (the swedes), downhill skiing (Germans, Austrians, French, and the Italians themselves), and Ice Hockey (Germans, Swedes, Finns, and even the Italians since it's growing so much). Really a win to get back to the Alps and as long as all goes well, we should see cities like Calgary, Sapporo, and even Salt Lake coming back eager to host - which would make the IOC elated.

    I'm not convinced Milan-Cortina is the bid that saves the WOGs and gets some traditional winter sports powers back into bidding. For starters, this bid was originally supposed to include Torino because many of the sports venues either need extensive renovations (Cortina sliding track) or have to be built from scratch (ice hockey arenas, speed skating oval). Torino had the venues for ice hockey and speed skating already and they'd only need minor renovations. Unfortunately, the respective city governments couldn't agree so now Milan is going to foot the bill and the price could easily get of hand. In fact, I predict that once cost figures start coming out, you will see a movement to get Torino on board. I find the public support in Milan to be a bit of a head scratcher and that we've only seen one poll that gave any numbers. 

    In terms of seeing whether or not the IOC's reforms could truly work, IMO Stockholm had the better bid, but as has been mentioned, the public support simply was not there and the IOC probably didn't want a nightmare scenario where the games were given back because of an upswell of people against hosting. I wouldn't call Milan-Cortina a great choice, rather it was the best of a bad lot.


  14. 8 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

    I think we touched on this in one of the long gone fantasy bid competitions.  I think the general concensus was the distance was prohibitive (700+km from Barcelona to Albertville, 800+ km from Andorra la Vella to Albertville) however that doesn't seem to be a huge issue these days.  Yes - Milan to Cortina is half of these distances - however the IOC may be open to this plan to show they are serious about legacy.

     

    I suppose it's a possibility given today's bidding environment and perhaps CNOSF might see co-hosting as a way of keeping costs down rather than a solo French bid with let's say Lyon, Grenoble, and Albertville.

     


  15. 7 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

    Well that'll give those venues a bit more use - still... not a good look.

    Interesting that this announcement comes right after South Korea says they have finalized legacy plans for the remaining Pyeongchang venues that will in their words "offer year-round activities to support the sports and educational legacy of the most recent Winter Olympic Games." Sounds like they have just kicked the can down the road a little bit and now with a winter YOGs bid in the cards (I can easily see this being awarded at the next IOC session in Tokyo next year) the fate of the sliding track, main ice hockey arena, and the speed skating oval are kept in the short term, from demolition. And Choi's argument that the YOGs will help raise the profile of the country and revitalize the local economy, well, wasn't that the main purpose of hosting the big one in in 2018? Not sure how the YOGs helps in that regard. This is speculation and it might be a stretch, but maybe the IOC made a few phone calls encouraging the Koreans to bid for the YOGs so as not to have another PR disaster about unused venues in a time when the IOC is desperate to get bidders in the first place?


  16. 12 hours ago, thatsnotmypuppy said:

    Ah Barcelona again.

    I don't know.  I much rather another summer Games from them or Madrid.  Maybe Lisbon?  I just can't equate Spain with winter sports.  I know they have mountains but... eh.  It's a stretch.

    This is why I'd question the long term legacy of a Barcelona WOGs. IMO, it's an interesting idea in theory, but long term, given that Spain is not a winter sports power, would a ski jumping complex, speed skating oval, or a sliding track really get that much use. I'm sure you'd see a small uptick in winter sports participation but I doubt it would be enough to justify the cost and upkeep. I can remember where I saw it last, might have been insidethegames but I remember an article from earlier this year that discussed a tri-nations winter bid between Spain, Andorra, and France. Not many details but I would've assumed that Barcelona would have been the ice cluster, skiing in Andorra, with the sliding and ski jumping events in France. Great way of making use of existing infrastructure, as I mentioned earlier, why go to all that trouble logistically when France could host the entire event on its own. Definitely think long term a SOGs is the way to go for Spain.

     


  17. On 9/21/2019 at 4:54 PM, Booville said:

    I think those people saying that 2030 is SLCs to lose are being over confident. 

    After all, it will be only 2years since LA2028, and I cannot ever recall two games (Summer & Winter) being held in the same country in such close proximity of time. With Sapporo it will be 10years since Tokyo2020 though the appetite for these games might diminish if the costs of Tokyo are to be believed.

    The romantic attachment (if this is to be believed) that the IOC have for Lillehammer will make them a very strong contender maybe without some of the issues that SLC and Sapporo might have. Sapporo will have a lot of work to do to build some of the venues required or expand the footprint of the games to include some of Nagano's facilities such as the bobsleigh run.

    SLC vs Lillehammer makes an interesting comparison. Unless there is a plan to replace the Vivint Smart Home Arena, the Committee would need to significantly increase the size of the Peaks Ice Arena (2,300 seats) and/or the Ice Sheet at Ogden (2,000 seats) to get to the minimum arena capacity standards though a temporary option could be built. Otherwise, SLC is good to go. For Lillehammer, a similar situation exists with a single larger arena required to meet the IOC's standard if the Hamar Olympic Arena cannot be expanded, and Pyeonchang has already shown the way with a large temporary solution for the ceremonies.

    I would also not rule out a bid from a central European country like Austria with a combined Salzburg-Innsbruck being offered. Again, whilst the more challenging to justify facilities exist - jumping hills, bobsleigh run - the lack of suitably sized arenas is a problem, though two largish cities could justify a conference facility (speed skating) and a larger sized arena, if not creatively using one of their football stadiums as a temporary solution

     

     

    I wouldn't say it's overconfidence as it is as much as a lack of options and the need for a stable bid with little in the way of infrastructure spending to try and  restore confidence in bidding for the WOGs. Salt Lake mirrors L.A.'s bid for the SOGs. SLC has almost everything in place. Vivint Smart Home Arena is getting a renovation. The commuter and light rail lines are being expanded as is the airport. The oval and ski jump stadium would need only minor touch ups. The only outstanding venues needed are a secondary ice hockey arena, curling arena (I think the Ice Sheet at Ogden or Peaks could host curling with their capacities) and an Olympic Village as I don't know if either the University of Utah or Brigham Young University would need additional on-campus housing.

    Lillehammer is a no go by itself. It's too small to host on its own. The city would have to partner with Oslo, but I have doubts that you will see a Norway bid anytime soon after the fallout when Oslo withdrew from the 2022 race and the IOC's scathing reaction. Austria with Vienna would be credible. The whole Barcelona-Pyrenees idea seems to crop up every year or so (as it has again) but it never seems to gain any traction and would require a huge amount of investment  for the ski and sliding events.

    Salt Lake City has most of what is already needed for a WOGs and it is a compact bid. It's a win-win.


  18. On 9/16/2019 at 3:54 AM, thatsnotmypuppy said:

    Two factors - the IOC's apparently non-negotible hosting window and the AOC's refusal to back a Melbourne bid.,  The first is due to TV rights, the second is due to the head of the AOC being a bit of a dick and Melbourne has a relatively mild - yet wet - winter.  July/August has fog, rain. sometimes snow on the higher hills and day time temperatures rarely above 18 degrees celcius.  Never mind that the vast majority of sports are indoors and long distance athletes have repeatedly stated they'd rather run a marathon in cooler weather...

    So that is it.  Climate, John Coates and NBC basically.

    I would lean more towards the latter with the AOC along with the fact that Melbourne never really seemed to actually show any interest. I have a colleague from Melbourne and I asked him not long ago if there was ever any interest from local officials in a bid and he said no. In terms of the weather issue, while it's a factor, I highly doubt if Australia said Melbourne is our host city, that the IOC wouldn't bend the rules a bit. Australia is too large a media market and with the whole bidding process on shaky ground anyway, I could've seen it happening, but, if Melbourne was never interested it's a moot point.

    The troubling issue is the push for Brisbane seems like putting a square peg in a round hole. Brisbane needs lots of work in terms of venues and transportation upgrades to make this work and frankly, it would not surprise me the least if the costs got out of hand very quickly. In terms of Bach's comments about electing a Brisbane bid early, well, I take that with a grain of salt at this point, but it fits in line with a targeted approach and a desire for a safe bid considering the potential competition: Korea, Jakarta, Shanghai, India, or Germany. Jakarta and India are out. There's no way the IOC is going to a developing country again anytime soon and I'd also rule out all of Africa and South America as well (that's what the YOG are for). I can't see the IOC going back to China so soon after Beijing 2022 and the joint Korea bid requires so much to fall into place besides the political problems (Pyongyang's infrastructure is archaic) that it's a fantasy. I'd say a Brisbane bid's biggest competitor would be a German bid, the Rhine-Rhur regional bid, but then there's the old referendum issue which hasn't gone well for German bids recently. As I've stated before, I doubt for a while the IOC considers a SOGs from anyone other than the USA, Western Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Australia, or Korea. 

     


  19. Brisbane doesn't need a 60,000 seat stadium either. What sports franchise even needs a stadium in Brisbane? To my knowledge, the Gabba is supposed to get a 100$ million upgrade. The whole reducing a stadium to 15,000-20,000 from 60,000 has yet to be shown to be a viable option. It's a white elephant either way unless there's a permanent tenant.

    • Like 1

  20. Sure seems like the IOC is going with a targeted approach. Consider the options so far; Indonesia, India (the IOC isn't going to a developing country after the Rio debacle), China (hard to see them going back so soon unless there was no other option), a joint Korea bid (fantasy at best). Western Europe (Paris) has 2024 and the U.S. has 2028. Not many options left other than Australia so it makes sense to try to lock 2032 in.

    The problem is from a feasibility standpoint it's the wrong city. Yes Melbourne has shown no interest in bidding so I agree it's a non starter but compared to Brisbane it's far more ready facilities wise. Brisbane, in a time when the IOC is desperate for a PR win and keeping costs down, is looking at bid that could get out of hand cost wise very quickly. For starters, Brisbane has no need for a an 80,000 capacity Olympic Stadium that would become a white elephant afterwards with no permanent tenant. And I don't buy the argument that 85 percent of the venues are already in place when considering in the initial feasibility study so many venues were set to be constructed with the legacy "community centres." which sounds very similar to what Rio proposed. Then there's the whole matter of the needed transportation upgrades and hotel rooms. It can get very expensive very quickly. I could see a budget easily surpassing the 20$ million mark.


  21. 7 hours ago, Tulsa said:

     

    I imagine Geneva/Chamonix/Annecy :lol: but impossible. .

    France is capable of hosting a WOGs on its own but there'd have to be an anchor city like Lyon, Marseille, or Nice. Switzerland is in the same boat, but much like Austria, it would have to be a country-wide bid. In terms of joint bids, the new rules could finally open up a Helsinki bid with maybe Are in Sweden for the alpine events (anyone remember their 2006 joint bid with Lillehammer?) While a joint bid might be viable, it's hard to see it winning in 2030 against a compact and moderately cost bid from Salt Lake or Sapporo.

    While we're on the subject, while Calgary crashed out of the 2026 race and the sliding track in WinSport at risk of closure, maybe Vancouver gives it another go the next time Canada wants a WOGs though I doubt for 2030.


  22. https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1084526/belarus-olympic-bid-russia-ukraine

    So on the heels of the European Games, Lukashenko wants the big prize, but recognizes that Minsk can't go it alone. Even with changes to the bidding procedure, why would Russia join up with anyone (Ukraine isn't an option). It's a pipe dream and I suspect we'll see more of these joint-bids, but I imagine very few, if any, are viable.

    I commented in another thread shortly after the end of the 2026 race that the SOGs, with their sheer size, now seemed to be limited to a handful of countries that can realistically host with minimal to moderate costs and sustain a viable legacy. The IOC is going to want safe hosts after the debacle in Rio and the costly overruns of Pyeongchang and Tokyo so I suspect they will take a targeted approach with the likes of the UK, US, Western Europe, Australia, Russia, China, Korea, and Japan along developing countries like Indonesia, India, Malaysia, along with all of Africa and South America.

    That leaves the likes of Belarus on the outside looking in unless they can co-host, but as I mentioned before, why would Russia do so when they could easily host everything themselves? Then there's the YOGs which is much more suited for Minsk.I expect you will see the IOC market the YOGs as a scaled down version of the big one in order to go to cities like MInsk and Dakar.

×
×
  • Create New...