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Everything posted by Quaker2001

  1. What is a "world class aquatic centre" anyway? Having an Olympic-sized pool and ancillary facilities is something many cities can build, but there's very little use to put thousands of seats in that venue considering how little that would get used. But it's interesting to note this is a thing... Flushing Meadows Natatorium That was going to be the water polo venue for the New York's 2012 Olympic bid. It got built anyway and opened in 2008.
  2. What Stefan said. The IOC isn't always the most forward-thinking organization. Sure, they may votes along lines with the next Olympics in mind, but do you really trust that the IOC will take care of Tokyo solely so they can ensure Sapporo would stay in the running for 2030? This postponement and the ensuing fallout may have but the kibosh on their plans already. The more alarming revelations from this are the implications on future hosts. Potential bidders may need to be increasingly wary of what they're getting themselves into. And yes, the IOC clearly needs be much more open with how they're helping out with Tokyo or else it's going to make them look bad.
  3. As the article notes.. there wasn't a plan B the first time out. Then they said they would take 4 weeks to come up with a plan B. 1 week later, they announced the postponement. I don't know if another postponement is possible and will be under consideration at any point. But it doesn't seem like it should be completely out of the realm of possible for that to happen just because he's saying so now
  4. Did you take your meds this morning?
  5. Their DNA? What exactly does that even mean? Yes, the IOC has weathered crises before. In the 70s and 80s, their mere existence was under threat, but they managed to steer their way through those rough waters and re-emerge as strong as ever. Remains to be seen if that's going to happen in the upcoming decade. The IOC doesn't exactly have the most stellar reputation around the world these days. The number of cities offering themselves up to host the Olympics has been shrinking for quite some time. Which was why we've seen the IOC re-think their selection process for choosing a host city. A large reason for that is because these cites and countries don't want to work with the IOC anymore. We've seen numerous cities put together a plan to host the Olympics and have that fall apart either because of poor management or because the will of the citizens to push back and force referendums has ended their efforts. That's something the IOC has rarely had to deal with throughout their history, let alone on the scale we're seeing now. It's not like it's just 1 or 2 cities where that's happening. The number of failed bids is greatly outnumbering the number of bids that manage to get far enough to be presented to the IOC. And now we're dealing with COVID-19, which has postponed an Olympics for the first time in their history, and still leaves in question how things are going to look next summer. The questions that will continue to come up over the next year is who will pay the costs for the delay. Is the onus on Japan and the organizers to spend the money necessary? How much is the IOC helping them out? It's another point where prospective host cities for future Olympics will question the relationship between the IOC and the host city. It may cause those cities to question their involvement with the Olympics if it's going to cost them more money than it's worth. It's not a matter of the IOC being able to deal with the Tokyo Olympics and work towards future Olympics at the same time. It's about those cities rethinking their plans now that the reality of a pandemic has reared its ugly head. So yes.. the IOC certainly has an eye towards 2030 and 2032 and beyond. It's a lucky break for them that they don't need to think about 2028. But where Tokyo 2020 would have been in the rear-view mirror 3 months from now, instead it's something they have to manage for an additional year. Among other things, that certainly puts a hold on Sapporo's efforts to put together a bid for 2030. And you can be sure that the folks in Queensland will want to see how the next year plays out before they sign on the dotted line (assuming they wind up being the IOC's choice for 2032)
  6. Yea, good luck with that. They may have been able to do that before the pandemic. No way it's happening now. The IOC is going to be busy spending the next year salvaging the Tokyo Olympics. After that, only a few months until Beijing. Then maybe they can start focusing on 2032. So we are at the bare minimum 2 years away from naming a host, and who knows what cities might step up before then given the state of the world. Yes, 7 years is no longer the official standard. But do we expect to get a 2030 host much before 2023? Probably not. And we might not see a 2032 host until after that at this point. Because the conditions probably won't be right until then. Lets see how these new norms/Agenda 2020 actually play out, particularly now that COVID-19 may have had a ripple effect beyond just Tokyo's Olympics getting postponed
  7. I still don't get how they're supposed to make this work with the swimming venue. I get that the whole point is to have the warm-up pool nearby, but they're not using Dedeaux Field as much as they're using the space for a temporary structure that's going to take awhile to build and make it difficult to restore the original condition of the field. Yes, that's going to displace USC baseball for at least a year, just like it's probably going to impact the 2028 football season at USC, possibly more depending on how long it takes to construct and then remove the platform. In terms of your comments about pushing back.. shouldn't Rio have dont that with UCI prior to the 2016 Olympics instead of caving in and building a new one? It's easy to say in a vacuum that the host cities have leverage, but if there's more than 1 bidder, than a city still has to put their best foot forward or risk losing the support of an IF. That's their recourse.
  8. If Tokyo can't host the Olympics in 2021, are they even going to want another one in the near future? I don't think it would be so automatic to assume they would want the next available Olympics. It's ironic how next Summer worked out because in a normal cycle, they'd be awarding the 2028 Olympics. Thankfully that's already taken care of, so the IOC has to be relieved they don't have to worry about that. When you say "starting to award the Games a bit early," you realize that was a one off, right? That's not the start of a trend that we should expect to continue. Remains to be seen how the IOC will be awarding hosting rights in the future, but 2026 was voted on right where it should have been. 7 years out seems like it will still be the standard and I would imagine once they get past next summer, they'll start looking ahead to the 2030 Olympics.
  9. Potentially, but I don't know if that's an invitation for Vancouver to waltz in knowing Salt Lake is still out there. They'll need to start getting ready for that sooner rather than later. I don't think they are well served to just drop into the race in mid to late 2021 following a cancelled Olympics. The bigger question is how will the IOC handle that massive slice of humble pie, particularly with an Olympics in China to follow
  10. ANZ STADIUM FAST FACTS $690 million in Australian dollars. Based on exchange rates at the time, that was about $380 US dollars. By comparison, Atlanta's stadium only cost about $209 million. LA's budget - no analysis needed - shows infrastructure spending at over a billion dollars. If that's what you consider "super cheap," then imagine a city like Brisbane that has to build more from scratch because they don't already have the required facilities. Suddenly not so super cheap anymore
  11. Los Angeles has almost no permanent Olympic-related construction planned and the infrastructure budget is still over a billion dollars. I don't think you can necessarily call Sydney "super cheap" when construction of the main stadium alone was over A$700 million, even if it was good to have a new stadium. The problem with the Olympics is that you don't just need facilities, but for those facilities to be able to accommodate large crowds. As Nacre noted, it's one thing to have an Olympic-sized pool. It's another for that venue to be able to hold 10,000-20,000 fans for the 1 time they'll need it for the competition. To that end... That gets said a lot, but look at the history and it's not necessarily all that true. LA figured out a solution, albeit an expensive one, without having to build a new stadium. Paris is using an existing stadium. Rio, Athens, and Barcelona all used existing stadiums. Sydney, London and Atlanta built new stadiums, but they're anything but white elephants. Other sports and venues have been more of the culprits. I don't think it's fair to point the finger at athletics as being the issue. Won't argue with the point about the Olympic village though. That's what will almost always make a permanent host a non-starter.
  12. The way to reduce the number is to evaluate which sports are expandable, both in terms of operational cost and what is required of the host city. Of course, the way the IOC operates which of course is heavy on politics, we get a situation where they vote to save modern pentathlon and eliminate wrestling (thankfully, wiser heads prevailed on that one). We're talking a lot about slalom canoeing. That requires a very specialized venue, so perhaps they need to be on the chopping block. Surfing is obviously all good when we're talking about Tokyo or LA. Paris, not so much. If the IOC is going start to tailor the program for each Olympics which some thoughts towards what makes sense for a particular host city (i.e. baseball/softball make perfect sense to have on the Tokyo program, but not so much for Paris). And maybe let's not add 5 brand new sports just to bring in younger audiences as a further burden on potential hosts. Here's what I think needs to happen going forward. Forget the permanent host idea. Sounds nice in theory, but it'll never be practical if it's creating transportation issues, unless the IOC is willing to shoulder more of that burden rather than throwing it all on the host city's shoulders. The IOC needs to create a better working relationship with potential host cities so that if things go south, it's not the city/country that suffers while the IOC reaps the benefits. Not to mention the IF's who continue to demand the very best, so cities have to offer it up or they won't win it. Cities bid for the Olympics often in the best of times. And then host the Olympics in not such good times. We saw it with Athens after 9/11 where security costs ballooned. We saw it with Rio where the Brazilian economy wasn't as strong in 2016 as it was in 2009. We're seeing it here with Tokyo (and soon to be with Milan) in circumstances out of their control. I've been saying it for years and I'll say it again here.. the problem isn't so much with the Olympics. A large part of the problem is with the IOC. Until they recognize that and stop providing that incremental changes like Agenda 2020 are the solution, it will be tough to see any real change going forward.
  13. Thank you for some good old-fashioned baseless speculation right there. India - with a grand total of 21 athletes sent to the Winter Olympics - is going to take a stand? European countries are going to send a message by.. doing what? And if Trump gets re-elected (G-d help us all), do you really the USOPC or anyone else for that matter will give a $hit if he's pissed at China? The IOC is in bed with China right now. There is ZERO chance either party is willingly backing out of that agreement. Especially given how much damage control they're going to have to do with regard to Japan in the 202One Olympics. You can't honestly think the IOC is going to turn their backs on China. What's the alternative? Cancel the 2022 Olympics? Pretty sure the IOC will not consider that an option, especially with how badly they're hurting right now with Tokyo. The good thing about the 2022 Olympics is that there's so much focus on trying to salvage 2021 that very little attention will be paid to Beijing next September. So most people in Olympics circles will forget about what they hate about China and why they probably shouldn't have been awarded an Olympics in the first place. That said, be careful of how we remember history. The final vote total for Beijing over Almaty was 44-40. A couple of voters have a change of heart at the last moment and suddenly the country that "obviously" wasn't winning actually pulls it off. That all aside.. yes, we're nearly 2 years away from the start of their Olympics. Right now in the moment of this pandemic, there are a lot of fingers being pointed at China. We know the lengths that Japan was willing to go to in order to make the world believe it would be safe to host the Olympics on schedule. No one knows what the state of the world will be in 2 years or where we'll be in terms of this pandemic. It's not as if we'll have forgotten about all this by the time the 2022 Olympics roll around, but it's unfair to evaluate the future based on the present in that regard.
  14. In hindsight, clearly not. The question now is how do they manage the fallout? It's anyone's best guess what the state of the world will look this time next year. At this point, I do trust that Tokyo will do whatever they can to make the Olympics happen, which means instead of trying to suppress the numbers, now that need to look into testing and the development of a vaccine. And yes, the economic fallout of all this would likely be devastating for the city and the country.
  15. What exactly is the IOC supposed to say? Have they said anything about France, speaking of areas hit hard by COVID-19? There's no need for some sort of empty gesture when they have a much more pressing situation to deal with right in front of them. There's only 2 ways the 2026 Olympics don't happen in Italy. Either the IOC takes it away from them (no shot) or Italy hands it back. Do you actually see that happening with a snap of your fingers like that? It's never going to be that simple. The entire world is feeling the effects of what's going on. When we start to hear reports about uncertainly in Italy over the Olympics, then maybe it's worth discussion. Until then, talking about the end of Milan's Olympic hopes is nothing more than baseless speculation
  16. We won't know what's up with Sapporo until late next year, and yes, it's very possible they won't want to bid for 2030, especially if things go less than swimmingly for Tokyo. I agree on Vancouver.. they'll likely be the next city in Canada to host another Olympics. I'm still skeptical they'll go after 2030, but it's certainly possible they'll throw their hat in the ring, particularly if Salt Lake is targeting 2034. Still, don't minimize the Olympic Village factor. That's the kind of major urban planning initiative that may determine whether or not there's an appetite to bid in the first place.
  17. Is Catalonia declaring independence from Spain? Or else how is it Barcelona followed by Madrid?
  18. Barcelona experienced something similar. As much as it is the golden standard for an Olympics meshing with economic revival, a lot of long-time locals were never happy because it turned the city into something of a tourist trap after a wave of gentrification, which as always is a double-edged sword. Dropping a ton of housing onto a city can have its benefits, but also its drawbacks as well.
  19. I'll send you an e-mail. Have a feeling I'm about to be your new best friend!
  20. The argument for Salt Lake would be like this.. That is all. This is not a competition won on technical merit. You're right that it's pretty even on that basis. And I don't think Vancouver can play the "most of our facilities will get old in another 10 years" card saying that 2030 is their time. Plus, as you noted, one of the big hurdles for Vancouver would be the matter of the Olympic Village, and their 2010 efforts on that one weren't exactly a highlight of the organizing committee.
  21. It's less about matching up against Sapporo and more about better timing for the USOPC (not to mention 2034 will be the first Olympics of the new TV contracts, so that could be better for the IOC as well). That said.. let's see what the appetite is for a Winter Olympics in Japan after what it's going to cost them for 2020 2021. Either way, hard to envision the next Winter Olympics in North American anywhere other than Salt Lake. Is Vancouver really in a rush to get themselves another Olympics so soon? That's everyone's economy at this point. At some point, Vancouver will likely put up another bid. Don't see that being so soon as 2030
  22. Canada is still probably licking their wounds from how the Calgary 2026 bid fell apart. Not a smart idea going up against Salt Lake and a United State bid. Somewhere down the line, Vancouver will probably be a good bet for another Olympics in Canada. But not 2030. And using St. Mortiz 1948 isn't a great example. That was the first post-WW2 Olympics and it was awarded to Switzerland on the basis of them being a neutral country through the war.
  23. Actually, I saw this story pop up earlier.. Olympic men's football age limit raised to 24 after Tokyo Games postponement
  24. Actually, and this is proof that we are in fact living in a bizarro world.. baron does have a point (sort of). Russia is trying to appeal the ban. So perhaps with the Olympics pushed back a year, it gives them more time to appeal. Obviously they would need to win that appeal, which yes, does seem pretty unlikely
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