Regarding Norway's bid, that was exactly my point. IOC member Gerhard Heiberg headed the Lillehammer WOG, and there is currently a lot of pro-Oslo people in the boards of the sports associations / NOC currently, so with the process closed, they will probably select Oslo, probably with a Lillehammer satelite again.
However, an Oslo WOG in 2022 is in my mind very unlikely. Firstly, because it will have a hard time getting enough political and popular support. In the 2018 round, the government made it pretty clear that it would not support an Oslo application, and still the same parties are in the government. Secondly, I believe it would be an easy match for München, Sweden, or even Switzerland, if any of these are to apply. An application associated with Lillehammer is simply too soon after 1994, and even the 1952 Oslo games could be a problem. An Oslo-application would also clearly be the least spectacular among the 2018 proposals.
Regarding France, they are clearly not among my personal favorites. A great country, but Albertville was not the best games, and compared with N/S/D their winter sport traditions are limited. I don't really buy your "Alps" argument. The reason that there has been many more games in the Alps than in the Nordics is mainly that there are many more countries with downhill possibilities to choose between there. In Northern Europe we only have Norway and (perhaps) Sweden. Winter nations like Finland, Netherlands, and Estonia will never have a WOG.