When I originally started this thread I put "money" on Dubai to be the first middle east games. My opinion has drastically changed since then.
Way back when I wrote this thread topic, doha had only hosted The Asian Games...now Qatar has won the 2022 World Cup.
This changes everything. You see Qatar and the UAE have similarly tiny populations and even less professional level athletes, with 3 Summer medals total between the two nations.
Dubai may be precieved to be the financial and cultural center, but the UAE didnt raise its hand enough and now Qatar is holding the bulk of Middle East Sporting legacy.
Qatar may be smaller, and less flashy than UAE(Dubai), but its already done the Asian games and won the World Cup hosting rights.
Imagine if you will the 2025 IOC Session in Auckland, the IOC is hearing bids for the 2032 Games. The IOC is allowing concessions on aSept/ Oct Game timeline. Amongst the other bids from Europe and North America, the IOC is looking favorably on new horizon bids. The only 2 Middle East bids to make it to the candidate phase are Doha and Dubai. I honestly can't see the Dubai(whose never hosted the Asian Games or World Cup) to show up bidding alongside experienced Qatar, and beat Doha. I just dont see it happening. As long as Doha doesn't completley "**** the bed" in 2022, it basically becomes the ONLY choice for the 1st Mid East Olympics.
Dubai passed up way to many chances, and stood by snickering at Qatar's quixotic bids, but now the music has stopped and Dubai doesn't have a chair. As far a sporting legacies go, Qatar may have a lot of work to do, but they are so far ahead of Dubai, which is basically a blank resume, despite its glitzy financial situation.