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Now having read the IOC report...I still feel that way.
Tokyo's weaknesses are a lack of public support and the radiation/seismic issue. There've been a couple of "double down" megaquakes in Japan in the last couple of hundred years: one megaquake followed within 2 years by another one further down the same fault system. Based on the 2011 Tohoku quake, that would farther south and closer to Tokyo. If that happens in the next year Tokyo's out, period. But unless public support increases based on IOC polling, they're out, period.
Madrid's clearly made several of the committee's underwear sticky, it's such an obviously biased love-in for Madrid and Spain (gracias Samaranchi). Their climate scores are too high; so are their accommodation scores. Madrid's weakness is being located in Spain--and the proposal to build thousands of flats in a country with thousands of unoccupied and unfinished housing projects sitting abandoned.
Istanbul's weaknesses are transportation and transportation. And Erdogan, a/k/a Sultan Reçep I.
