Making The Shortlist

[Rafa]

While, Rio will gain a few points from the new venues in place after the Pan-American Games, this was taken into account somewhat during the 2012 evaluation as planned venues. If Rio does not improve its sports venue concept, which essentially needs a major overhaul, and does not accelerate realistic transport investments to cater for these venues, then it could face the harsh reality of just missing the IOC benchmark. Its biggest mistake would be to rely on the Pan-American Games hosting to push it through, and its biggest asset would be learning from the 2012 evaluation report in totality.

If Rio was to "straddle" the benchmark, the IOC might take the 2014 world cup into account, when deciding if Rio would have the capacity to host the Games. With only 7 cities in the running, and a city the size of Leipzig having scored significantly higher than Rio in the 2012 technical evaluation, Doha and perhaps even Prague would be a threat. I maintain that four cities will be shortlisted and Rio would be unwise to think that the "fourth spot" would be handed to it on a platter.

I fully support Rio hosting in 2016, but the truth is that there is much work to do. What do you say?

[cfm Jeremie]

Agreed. Together with Puppy, we have been saying so for months.

This being said, the recent decision of the federal government to fund a major highway construction project is a good step. I am not sure how essential this new highway to the Rio 2016 transportation plan.

So, Rio will definitely score higher for 2016 than they did for 2012.

As for the number of candidate cities, I don't see why there should be 4. It is not necesseraly directly proportional to the number of applicant cities. Madrid, Chicago and Tokyo are sure things, Baku and Pragues are almost certainly out, Doha and Rio are maybe.

[thatsnotmypuppy]

Here was my take on it form the other thread...

QUOTE(thorbr @ Oct 29 2007, 03:33 AM)

Yes, maybe you are right... but WC will be almost totally sponsored, and I think FIFA has a lot of sponsors of its own? no? Besides that, and that's a real question, because I don't know, does the IOC give, through private sector, I don't know, an amount of money to the city that is going to host? like helping funding the constructions and etc? So I think this, and the private sector again (why not differente companies from the WC, and WHY NOT, the same..... huge companies wouldn't bother to invest again... and we have some here...), besides government, could do it, no?

I'll look into this a bit further - but say Coke for example. Their Olympic sponsorship as a member of the TOP program is about $40-$50US million. Their contribution to the World Cup is a similar amount. Now this doesn't really matter as Coke pays this in advance for the right to advertise their product with the Olympic Rings, etc. McDonalds and VISA are the other two who are major sponsors of both events.

Now say a company like Varig - they will probably pay a huge amount to be the official airline of the World Cup. Considering the huge distances between each of the host cities it will be quite an outlay in costs - not just to secure the sponsorship, but also to upgrade the fleet and airports. Sure - the government will chip in a lot of money - but that will only be a percentage of the overall costs. Now to ask Varig to pay millions of dollars across the country then two years later ask for millions more to sponsor the Olympics is a bit much. Varig - as will many other local companies - will chose one event over the other. In all honesty they will all scramble to be associated with the World Cup which is a much bigger deal in Brazil then the Olympics.

There will be other companies to step in - but the Olympics will not generate the same amount of sponsorship straight after a World Cup.

Look at London - their 2012 plan shows the following sponsorship money.

$600,000,000US will come from the IOC.

$300,000,000US will come from TOP sponsors (Coke, etc)

$435,000,000US will come from local sponsors.

In Rio's 2012 bid application, they claim to be able to get $450,000,000US from local sponsors. The IOC's response to this was -

QUOTE

Sponsorship revenues appear high considering the local market today

Now imagine the Brazilian market in 2009 if Rio de Janeiro wins the hosting rights.

The preparations and sponsorship drives for the World Cup are well advanced. Major sponsors have signed on. Now the Olympic organising committee has to approach these same companies and ask for even more money.

The Brazilian economy and private market in my opinion cannot sustain realistically both events. It is just too much money.

This coupled with the IOC's other concerns -

QUOTE

Transport infrastructure

The physical and geographical situation of Rio creates challenges in terms of urban

transport networks, with transport facilities constricted to the area between the ocean

and the nearby mountains. Alternatively, transport facilities have to go around the

vast Tijuca Forest. The current traffic situation is problematic as almost all public and

private transport systems are superimposed and have to use the overcrowded road

system. The Rio metro subway system is limited to two short lines which serve a

small proportion of Rio’s urban areas. The suburban rail system, which has been and

still is undergoing major upgrades (electrification, track renewal, etc.), serves only

Rio’s northern and north-western suburbs, but very little of the proposed Olympic

areas.

Motorway and major rail infrastructures which are planned to connect the eastern

(Rio Central Business District to Copacabana), northern (Maracanã and Deodoro) and

western (Barra) areas of Rio pass through geographical bottlenecks and/or very

densely urbanised areas and are, therefore, challenging and costly to build.

If all transport infrastructure elements (motorway and high performance rail)

proposed for 2012 are in place, the transport concept is sound in principle but will be

challenged to meet the transport capacity needed to cope with Rio’s basic traffic

demands (without the Olympic Games) given the very heavy concentration of flows. In

addition, given Rio’s history of difficulties in the field of heavy rail and urban

motorway development, and the very high cost of these infrastructures, the

probability of having a full dual system (motorway + high performance rail) in place in

seven years time appears to be optimistic.

Rio de Janeiro Municipality will cover a large proportion of the transport

infrastructure investment.

In regards to accommodation -

QUOTE

The number of existing hotel rooms (19,100) is well below the benchmark. The

number of planned hotel rooms (4,000), the two media villages with a total of 17,152

rooms and five cruise ships with 3,500 rooms would increase Rio’s accommodation

capacity to meet the benchmark, but may present a challenge.

In regards to transport -

QUOTE

Distances and travel times

Although a very large number of competition and non-competition venues are located

in the proposed new Olympic Barra district, the proportion and number of stand

alone venues in other areas is rather high. The average distance between Olympic

competition and non-competition venues is similar to other Applicant Cities.

However, the assumed average bus travel speeds of 63km/h appear unrealistic.

Transport organisation and traffic management at Games-time

The Olympic operational transport concept seems good for Barra, although the sheer

number and size of the venues may generate increased transport congestion and

overload. The concept presents considerable challenges for the rest of the Olympic

system due to heavy potential congestion both on urban motorways and major

arterial roads, as well as on rail or major bus routes on the proposed Olympic Ring,

connecting Barra to other parts of the Rio metropolitan area.

In regards to security -

QUOTE

The security Forces will be under the control of the Federal Government. Many venues

in Rio are widespread and the requirement for security could stretch the resources

available. The heavy concentration of some key venues in the Barra area may require

a complex security solution. The technology and infrastructure to support the

security operation will have to be developed. It is considered that the time needed to

re-equip, train and implement new systems might not be sufficient.

These areas along with the finance plan need to be much better to make the shortlist this time around. I do not believe enough has been done in the past 4 years to convince the IOC that Rio is ready yet...

Not so much an opinion as a statement of fact.

I would like Rio to get the 2016 Games. I just do not believe that the World Cup and Olympics can be staged responsibly in a country with a developing economy in such a short amount of time.

[IceNarcissus]

The reason Rio is so baffling is that Brazil's economy is one of the most developed in the world but in nearly a completely different set of industries than most other expanding and industrializing nations.

It's difficult to track Brazil's influence today because of it's problems and benefits, and predicting the power of the real by 2016 is about as random as random gets. The only way the IOC would embrace Rio 2016 is if it could feasibly see the city making enough steps forward to grow AND make up for any potential steps back.

A victory for Rio would not be unlike Beijing's 2008 victory. Unsure structure at first but the promise of needed expansion combined with a growing middle class in one of the most populated countries in the world makes a recipe that looks so tasty you just have to try to make it even if you can't even use a microwave to heat up a hot pocket!