38 replies to this topic

[Athensfan]

I don't think Paris v. Durban v. US is likely to play out in the US' favor. Both Paris and Durban will have considerable emotional support and there won't be much for the US to work with -- even with the likes of Chicago. I think the US MIGHT (might) be able to take on one, but probably not both. 2024 would be a big gamble for the Americans. Personally Idont think they're likely to get 2022 either. Especially if Munich bids....

[Quaker2001]

Now, who were the non-believers who were still "if'ing" a Durban-RSA 2024 run???

Them taking the initial steps is still a long way off from a certified bid. I think we learned from the 2020 bidding process not to assume anything is guaranteed. We'll probably see a bid from South Africa (I believed that before this news came out), but the 2015 deadline is still a long ways away. Everyone is still in the 'if' category now, including South Africa. Although yes, this is certainly a nudge for them towards the 'yes' column.

[Athensfan]

Quaker, I agree. SA said the same thing before 2020 kicked off and they sure won't be hosting those Games.

They are a totally unknown quantity. Will they bid? Will they be good enough to win? I have no idea. As I said, anyone else who bids for 2024 is taking a huge gamble.

[Gold Coast Lions]

I think that the earliest time that South Africa will host the Summer Olympics and Paralympics Games will be in 2028 the Government will want to work on Domestic issues for this decade which will improve there chances to host the Olympics Games the Western Cape is ruled by Democratic Alliance which is 100 times better then the African National Congress let the economy of South Africa to get bigger and I understand by 2014 Cape Town will have 70% of the Venues needed for the Olympics Games and is the Africa sports and tourist hub work on transport build up more tourism industry and I will say that Cape Town South Africa could very well host the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympics Games.

I think the 2020 Games will go to Istanbul Turkey which will block out Europe, Asia and Middle East from hosting the 2024 and 2028 Games and by 2024 it will have been 28 years since North America hosted the Games and Toronto Canada will be in a very good place to get them after hosting the 2015 Pan American and Parapan American Games and by 2028 it will be finally Africa time to host the Olympics and Paralympics Games.

[stryker]

If South Africa goes through with this then I think they are no doubt the overwhelming favorite for 2024. Whether it's Durban, Cape Town, Joahnnesburg, if South Africa presents a bid even with minimal risk, they will win in a landslide similar to Beijing or Pyeongchang. Jacques Rogge all but told South Africa if you enter the 2020 race it's yours. The only way I think a South Africa bid is thwarted is either the government gets cold feet and decides a bid is too expensive or another African nation (likely Morocco) puts forth a bid and splits the African vote.

[Athensfan]

If South Africa goes through with this then I think they are no doubt the overwhelming favorite for 2024. Whether it's Durban, Cape Town, Joahnnesburg, if South Africa presents a bid even with minimal risk, they will win in a landslide similar to Beijing or Pyeongchang. Jacques Rogge all but told South Africa if you enter the 2020 race it's yours. The only way I think a South Africa bid is thwarted is either the government gets cold feet and decides a bid is too expensive or another African nation (likely Morocco) puts forth a bid and splits the African vote.

I'm inclined to agree completely with this.

BUT.... there are two very important "ifs"

1. "if they go through with this." No small thing.

2. "if they present a bid with minimal risk." Also no small thing.

[dysan1]

guys its mid 2012... we are far away from the government even indicating whethr they will consider the bid... do not forget that last time it was ALL lead by SASCOC, only when they approached government and they said no did it get any form of official answer.

The same is happening here. SASCOC are making statements about talking to government. this is an improvement for they will at least chat before getting all up in the air on this. While i know the city officials in Durban would be eager to go for a bid and we know how much background planning they have been doing, i still am not sold that we as a country should be going for the Olympics, and with current world issues, getting the people on board will be difficult in ANY country. I honestly cannot see the Spanish citizens getting excited and supporting their bid, nor their european collegues who as we speak will start bailing out the spanish banks, in the current circumstances.

2024 is alot further away, so alot will happen, but the next steps taken by SASCOC will need to be careful, or they will likely get a flat out no from government.

No one in SA is more prepared for an Oympics than Durban, but that doesnt mean Durban is any way close to prepared.

[Blacksheep]

Is Istanbul a European bid or is it a Middle Eastern bid?

I definitely don't think you can rule out Paris even if Istanbul wins.

And now Toronto City Council have overwhelmingly voted for Toronto to bid for 2024, you've got a potential contender that allows the Games to go back to North America.

South Africa would be the leading contender, BUT if you cost the games at about $10bn can South Africa afford to host the games with so many other issues. I was reading about Durban and apparently the level of HIV/AIDS infection there is 32% !!!!!

Surely South Africa has more fundamentally pressing issues to deal with over the next 5 years than considering bidding for the Olympics?

[Athensfan]

The Games will be more than 10 billion in 2024 -- especially for a country like South Africa. Athens was 14 billion in 2004. Twenty years later I think you're looking at over 20 billion.

[deawebo]

Paris v Durban v Toronto will be a tighter race... Toronto will be my technical choice, Paris my sentimental choice... As for Durban... They will get the 2022 CWG so I'm not that sure to see them with SOG 2 years after...