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Athensfan

Where's the Bid Index?

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With only three weeks until the short list announcement, there still is no bid index. I can't recall another race where the first index was published so late.

This leads me to suspect that perhaps the 2020 candidates do not fall as neatly into the paradigms of previous races. Perhaps the index is being adjusted for this race. That would make me a bit suspicious of it, but then I always have been anyway. Without seeing a diagram of exactly the criteria that's being evaluated, how it is scored for each candidate and how it is weighted, I don't put much stock in it.

ATR's approach may be less complex, but at least they show you how they arrive at their conclusions. And they published their rankings many weeks ago....

What are your thoughts?

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Yes, that is sad that three weeks prior to the meeting in Quebec we still don't have Bid Index :(

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I recognised that, too - I suppose GBModerator will publish his famous BidIndex soon

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BidIndex will be published prior to the Short list this month as planned. The IOC changed things up a bit this time by allowing presentations before the short list - and the bids have made more information available because of this so it will all be included to make our initial release more complete and useful than in the past.

Since BidIndex is based on statistical trends and a lot of data, it takes time to prepare - unlike "other" indexes where categories and values are arbitrarily chosen and they may or may not relate to how IOC members actually vote.

I think you'll be happy with what we'll be launching very soon.

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BidIndex will be published prior to the Short list this month as planned. The IOC changed things up a bit this time by allowing presentations before the short list - and the bids have made more information available because of this so it will all be included to make our initial release more complete and useful than in the past.

Since BidIndex is based on statistical trends and a lot of data, it takes time to prepare - unlike "other" indexes where categories and values are arbitrarily chosen and they may or may not relate to how IOC members actually vote.

I think you'll be happy with what we'll be launching very soon.

Thanks for the response. Sounds good.

ATR's rankings are obviously subjective. I would be interested in seeing more of the "guts" of the bid index sometime -- how the data is evaluated, etc.

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whats included in bid index? the city or city + country?

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I'd been wondering myself when it would come. Great to know we'll se it soon.

Is it only three weeks to the short list? I've been too pre-occupied to realise it was so soon!

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I echo Rols. I didn't realize it's already time!

BidIndex will be published prior to the Short list this month as planned. The IOC changed things up a bit this time by allowing presentations before the short list - and the bids have made more information available because of this so it will all be included to make our initial release more complete and useful than in the past.

I guess that means Doha's making the short list- they always make great videos.

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There is some rumors, here in Lausanne, that mightily all the applicant cities could become candidate cities.... (but without any formal confirmation... as everything will be decided by the Ex Board in Quebec !)

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There is some rumors, here in Lausanne, that mightily all the applicant cities could become candidate cities.... (but without any formal confirmation... as everything will be decided by the Ex Board in Quebec !)

That's my expectation. All shortlisted. Makes me wonder why they bother with a short list when everybody's made in two cycles in a row. If it happens again (and it easily could for both 2022 and 2024), they may need to rethink the process.

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Can't wait for the Bid Index is more realible than others... :D

The problem isn't the process... The problem is that there were only 5 aplicants!!! D: and in 2018 inly 3, I mean if Rome would be bidding right now i bet a city must be eliminated...

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Can't wait for the Bid Index is more realible than others... :D

The problem isn't the process... The problem is that there were only 5 aplicants!!! D: and in 2018 inly 3, I mean if Rome would be bidding right now i bet a city must be eliminated...

If memory serves, Bid Index mainly ranks the candidates. I don't know that there's a hard and fast prediction about the short list.

Personally, I wish it were updated more often. I would have liked a preliminary one at the beginning that got updated later.

It seems to me that the bid index wax only updated two or three times during the 2018 race. That's not much in the course of a two-year campaign.

It sounds very official talking about complex algorithms of data analysis , but really we have absolutely no idea what Bid Index is or where the numbers come from. We don't know how the formula is tweaked from year to year or whether that happens before or after the candidates announce themselves. It's really just a series of mysterious numbers to us outsiders.

I'm not saying that it's a sham, but I do think that anyone who follows the information closely and runs it through the common sense filter is likely to come up with the same result. I have yet to be surprised by Bid Index.

The Index was once one of GB's claims to fame. I don't see any good reason for the delay. There should have been a preliminary ranking long ago. watching the shifts and hearing explanations for them is the most interesting part of it.

If the Index is only updated a couple times (and most likely doesn't change a great deal) it loses a lot of interest for me.

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That's my expectation. All shortlisted. Makes me wonder why they bother with a short list when everybody's made in two cycles in a row. If it happens again (and it easily could for both 2022 and 2024), they may need to rethink the process.

It's there to use when it's needed. It wasn't needed in 2018. It IS in 2020, but that's a different story. Just because the IOC will get it wrong in 2020 (if SwissO turns out to be right) doesn't make the short list any less of a good idea.

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It's there to use when it's needed. It wasn't needed in 2018. It IS in 2020, but that's a different story. Just because the IOC will get it wrong in 2020 (if SwissO turns out to be right) doesn't make the short list any less of a good idea.

I think it is a good idea, if they have the guts to follow through. I'm expecting that for the next few cycles all the bidders will make the not-so-short list.

You could argue that only Tokyo and Istanbul should really be on the list, but that's never gonna happen.

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I'm expecting that for the next few cycles all the bidders will make the not-so-short list.

Really? Who's to say we're not going to get more bids like Havana or San Juan in the future (as we did in the not too distant past)? The shortlist is there if it's needed and in previous races it has been needed.

Here's a thought though: perhaps actually the shortlist is a victim of its own success. Perhaps such cities are realising they won't get far, won't even reach a stage where they can bask in some sort of international limelite, so aren't bothering anymore. Is this possible?

Edited by RobH

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Really? Who's to say we're not going to get more bids like Havana or San Juan in the future (as we did in the not too distant past)? The shortlist is there if it's needed and in previous races it has been needed.

Here's a thought though: perhaps actually the shortlist is a victim of its own success. Perhaps such cities are realising they won't get far, won't even reach a stage where they can bask in some sort of international limelite, so aren't bothering anymore. Is this possible?

I just shared my expectations. Feel free to expect a bid from Havana if you like.

I do think you hit on something with the shortlist being a victim of its own success. I also think that countries are becoming increasingly clear on how enormous and expensive the Games really are. That's weeding out a lot of the wannabes.

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Really? Who's to say we're not going to get more bids like Havana or San Juan in the future (as we did in the not too distant past)? The shortlist is there if it's needed and in previous races it has been needed.

Here's a thought though: perhaps actually the shortlist is a victim of its own success. Perhaps such cities are realising they won't get far, won't even reach a stage where they can bask in some sort of international limelite, so aren't bothering anymore. Is this possible?

That could be part of it. The other part might be that those cities actually thought they had a chance of winning since they saw other cities like Barcelona and Atlanta winning, before being brought back to earth by wins like Beijing and London.

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If memory serves, Bid Index mainly ranks the candidates. I don't know that there's a hard and fast prediction about the short list.

I distinctly remember for the 2012 race (not others for whatever reason), that the Bid Index did make predictions for the 2012 short-list. With a breif summary of who & why.

I remember Moscow was pegged as not making it, while both Rio & Istanbul being good probabilities in making the cut. Needless to say, Moscow did make it, & Rio & Istanbul did not.

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I distinctly remember for the 2012 race (not others for whatever reason), that the Bid Index did make predictions for the 2012 short-list. With a breif summary of who & why.

I remember Moscow was pegged as not making it, while both Rio & Istanbul being good probabilities in making the cut. Needless to say, Moscow did make it, & Rio & Istanbul did not.

2012 bid index ahead of the short list (May 2004) : http://www.gamesbids.com/eng/bidindex/1084761349.html

Before that, 2 bid index were already realsed, one in january 2004 (before applicant files : http://www.gamesbids.com/eng/bidindex/1073875216.html) and one in february 2004 (after applicant files : http://www.gamesbids.com/eng/bidindex/1077599781.html)

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I distinctly remember for the 2012 race (not others for whatever reason), that the Bid Index did make predictions for the 2012 short-list. With a breif summary of who & why.

I remember Moscow was pegged as not making it, while both Rio & Istanbul being good probabilities in making the cut. Needless to say, Moscow did make it, & Rio & Istanbul did not.

And perhaps that's why we haven't seen it since.

In retrospect it seems that shortlist was a very political decision. Cutting Moscow but admitting Istanbul or Rio would've been a total disaster in terms of the IOC's relationship with Russia.

I think it's better to come out, make a prediction, explain why, and know there's a chance it's wrong. That's far more interesting than making a few tentative predictions (and fewer updates of the index) in an attempt to avoid exposing one's self to criticism. I'd like to see predictions and I'd like to understand the reasoning behind them in more detail.

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FYI, we never stopped making shortlist predictions.

2014 Shortlist preview...

http://www.gamesbids...1150860675.html

2016 Shortlist preview...

http://www.gamesbids...1212537937.html

The 2016 prediction is interesting. Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo were green; Rio and Doha were amber (ironically Rio probably wouldn't have made the list if Rio was accepted since Rio had lower scores) and the rest were red.

2018 Shortlist preview...

http://www.gamesbids.com/eng/winter_olympic_bids/2018_bid_news/1216135228.html

As far as BidIndex goes - there has never been a set schedule. And as someone mentioned before, updates are released as the race demands. The 2018 race, with only three cities, didn't require too many updates.

There was actually a BidIndex ready to come out when Rome was in the 2020 race - but as it became apparent that they might be dropping out - we stopped the release. When they dropped out we had to recalculate things since many of the categories have relative scoring. Then we rescheduled the release for May since it would be closer to SportAccord and more interesting.

Now - we are ready to release in the next few days. And, as always, we will prepare the shortlist predictions.

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What I meant was that I distinctly rememeber the 2012 Index predicting the short-list, but for the other races I could not remember, for whatever reasons. Perhaps bcuz the 2012 race was a higher profile Summer Olympic bid campaign & the Winter Olympic races I don't pay as much acute attention to.

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I really did not remember those predictions. Interesting revisiting them. Thanks.

Personally, I would have liked to see the bid index with Rome in the race. Even if it had been released after Rome's departure. It would have been an opportunity to explain in greater detail how the index works. Then when the next version came out, we could all observe the shift.

Incidentally, you could well find yourself in the same position with Istanbul....,

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I really did not remember those predictions. Interesting revisiting them. Thanks.

Personally, I would have liked to see the bid index with Rome in the race. Even if it had been released after Rome's departure. It would have been an opportunity to explain in greater detail how the index works. Then when the next version came out, we could all observe the shift.

Well, you just might. Stay tuned.

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