592 replies to this topic

[Soaring]

I don't know about you, but I am having a hard time putting my finger on who the favorite is in the 2020 race. I know we are still very early in the process, but I am kind of seeing it as a horse race between Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid, with Rome not too far behind, and Doha and Baku in the far back.

Why am I having a hard time with choosing a frontrunner you ask?

Here are some of the main reasons...
- Geography is not as much of a factor this time around, since all bidders are not from the Americas which is hosting the 2016 games.
- Madrid, Rome and Tokyo all could have arguments made against them when it comes to their economies/national priorities.
- Istanbul, while it has an economy that is in better shape, it still would have a lot of work to do to be ready, and they don't have an event like the World Cup to use as a catalyst for their preparations.
- Doha and Baku, don't stand much of a chance in my opinion.


Who would you categorize as the favorite in this race?

Edited by Soaring, 01 February 2012 - 10:52 AM.

[baron-pierreIV]

well, the whole world geo-financial picture is in flux. So it's really too early to tell. What's interesting is if Rome bails out, where will the powerful Italian bloc w/in the IOC (5 members) swing their support? To 'neighboring' Madrid or way out to Tokyo to at least increase their chances for a return in 2024 (altho they already had conceded that to Africa) or 2028. Of course, Madrid is 3-peater and Istanbul is on its 4th run.

At this stage, I'd say Doha and Baku will cancel each other out, and the fight will be between Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid. But where Rome's supporters' 2nd vote goes to, leads the pack, I'd say.

[deawebo]

Mmm i'll show it with numbers... Perhaps
Istanbul 66
Tokyo 64
Madrid 60
Rome 52
Doha 47
Baku 44
But as i think, Tokyo or Istanbul seem to be the favorites and pehaprs Madrid behind but near of them...

[Sir Rols]

I don't know about you, but I am having a hard time putting my finger on who the favorite is in the 2020 race. I know we are still very early in the process, but I am kind of seeing it as a horse race between Tokyo, Istanbul and Madrid, with Rome not too far behind, and Doha and Baku in the far back.

Why am I having a hard time with choosing a frontrunner you ask?

Here are some of the main reasons...
- Geography is not as much of a factor this time around, since all bidders are not from the Americas which is hosting the 2016 games.
- Madrid, Rome and Tokyo all could have arguments made against them when it comes to their economies/national priorities.
- Istanbul, while it has an economy that is in better shape, it still would have a lot of work to do to be ready, and they don't have an event like the World Cup to use as a catalyst for their preparations.
- Doha and Baku, don't stand much of a chance in my opinion.


Who would you categorize as the favorite in this race?

I think you're spot on. Yes, it IS too early to make any firm judgements yet, but I really don't see any obvious frontrunner in this race yet. And, apart from Doha and Baku which I agree with you are very dark outsiders, I can easily see many reasons why any of the others could win, or also the reasons they may fail. It's gonna be interesting to observe the campaign.

I used to think of Rome as the frontrunner, but I've gone a bit cold on them lately - and they may not even make the starting line. My picks at this stage, through a mix of judgement and personal preference, would be Istanbul or Tokyo as my predictions as the most likely to succeed.

[RobH]

Great idea for a thread Soaring.....looking forward to seeing what everyone thinks. 2012 seemed destined for Western Europe (it ended up a smidgen further north than most prediced but still in Western Europe), 2016 seemed destined for America (most predicted the wrong bit of the continent but they still went to the Americas). 2020 is destined for nowhere....there's no narrowing down that can be done for this race!

 

Personally if pushed, I would say Tokyo at this stage though.

Baku is a real underdog. A shortlisting would be a surprise.

Rome could be gone within weeks or dead on its feet by the vote if the government support is not there. The last news story we heard from them wasn't encouraging so I'm not going to even contemplate putting them as favourites until the most basic thing a bid needs - domestic political support - is there.

Istanbul didn't shortlist for 2012 or 2016. They'll look at Rio and see that that isn't necessarily a problem, but it's a city with a lot to do to get up to Olympic Standard. Not sure how much support Turkey has within the IOC at this stage either, and should they go strong with a bid for Euro 2020, they may be spreading themselves too thinly and end up winning neither event.

Doha has a cumulative, snowballing of problems to contend with. Heat, rights issues, lack of sporting history, the 2022 World Cup overshadowing everything, the 2017 WACs loss, small population, geography etc. They have money but the IOC aren't FIFA. Can't seriously consider them as favourites.

Madrid will put together a strong technical bid as they always do, but you know what, I'm looking forward to seeing the applicant file because I think their stadium solution could raise a few eyebrows. If you haven't had a butcher's yet, do look in the Madrid 2020 Stadium thread. I've been trying to figure out how their stadium will work for this bid since it's been confirmed it will be a football stadium with an athletics platform solution (quite different from their 2012 or 2016 stadiums). As far as I can work out, their stadium will have a capacity of 49k in ahtletics mode! Also, Barcelona 92 could still be a problem.

Tokyo has the money, the support, the bidding experience, and it seems to be bidding at the right time geo-politically. The European field is thin, it's coming off the back of a new-frontier Games in 2016 so the IOC may have sated their appetite in this regard till Africa comes along, and I think Japan has enough support in the IOC to pull this off. What they need to do though is excite, figure out a narrative, make sure they're not overlooked as I felt happened a little with their 2016 bid (Rio won, Chicago bombed, Madrid had a plea to grant Samaranch's final wish, Tokyo was forgotten).

Edited by RobH, 31 January 2012 - 05:57 PM.

[Lee]

I would say Tokyo is the definite favourite with Madrid and Istanbul battling it out for 2nd and
3rd positions. Rome would be a distant 4th and Baku and Doha just in it for the experience. How could anyone seriously consider one of these 2 for an Olympic Games?

[FYI]

Baku and Doha just in it for the experience. How could anyone seriously consider one of these 2 for an Olympic Games?

The audacious & "completely unaware of the IOC".

[Gangwon]

What a shame, Rome had everything going for it:

Unlike Tokyo, it has the geopolitical advantage of geography.

Unlike Spain, it has the geopolitical advantage of time.

Unlike Istanbul, it has the developed economy.

Unlike Doha, it has the sporting tradition and the population.

Unlike Baku, it has the infrastructure.


And it STILL has power within the IOC and loads of exotica to appeal to voters' emotions. Yet this perfect storm could be destroyed by lack of governmental support.

[FYI]

Well, hopefully, the new Italian government will look at the bigger picture. And see that in the end, it would be to their benefit. Supposedly, the majority of Italians R on board.

The IOC talks about "scaling down" the Games, & this would be a perfect opportunity for them to do just that. Rome has a lot in place already. So no danger of gargantuan, white elephants.

With that said, I'm surprised that the IOC, specifically Jacques, hasn't come out to try & keep Rome in. But then again, maybe they want to stay out of it, but it's anyone's guess.

[alphamale86]

Great Thread.

When 2020 came around i was excited at the prospect of South Africa bidding or that the US might shock us and put in a last minute bid but when that didn't happen I saw one of the most boring races for the games about to unfold. Even though Madrid was heading into their 3rd bid Rome was about to run away with everything before any IOC official even touched down to evaluate their facilities. But over the past few mouths so many issues arisen evening out the playing field making this to me one of the most exciting races just because there is no front runner, and I like that. I like not knowing till the end. Now you all know that I have been pushing Doha up in the last few days but I do see your points. I just don't think they are so much of a dark horse as some of you believe.

Rome - Even if Rome does get back into the race, the fact that they considered dropping out is going to play against them. To me it just shows a weakness within their bid.

Madrid - Besides economics which is affecting both Madrid and Rome, I get the impression that Madrid is just not sparking excitement within the IOC voters. I mean I just get the sense that the IOC isn't aroused by them and kind of say "Yes your good and all but..." I just don't feel it appeals to them. Pyeongchang 2018 suffered from the same thing but they were lucky last cycle because they only had really 1 real challenger in Munich. I think in a situation like that Persistence would go a long way to add to a campaign but when u have 5 other challengers, the persistence card doesn't really push u over the edge so to say.

Tokyo - My issue with Tokyo is that last go around they were a snooze feast. They were forgotten, people in japan were not excited about it. They were just there and that is a horrible reputation to have. I feel as though there campaign would be more energized had they sat out this cycle and come back renewed for 2024. Go out of sight and then burst back onto the scene but right now I just feel like they dust off the 2016 bid and returned with the same issues they had last time (lack of enthusiasm) compounded with the tsunami.

Doha - Money is it weapon / Money is it's weakness. Had this been any other year and I would have said no shot but the fact that there isn't a front runner allows members to look at all bids and the bid book made of solid gold with diamond and ruby lettered pages might cause voters to think twice but you all are right, the world cup scandal is a huge strike against them. After reading about the point that the IAAF chief had made about the stadium in Doha emptying out way before a track meet that they were hosting ended really got me thinking about why the sporting tradition aspect is so important. It brought me back to the Athens and seeing the empty venues, (Though that was due to the fact that the games were being held during a holy week) but the thought of empty stadiums on television is not appealing. However, I still think they could pull of the surprise in this field.

Istanbul - If one city will benefit from the changes in the hierarchy of this race it's Istanbul. They to me they are still in the same position but because the top three have been knocked down a bit people have to consider Istanbul a force now. I just don't see istanbul getting it though. I feel as though when I here istanbul or turkey in the news it's not necessarily in the most serene light, Let me explain. In the US for the past 8 years news has all been about the Wars in that region. What is Turkey doing to help what are they not doing to help. Turkey / US relations going well Turkey / US relations doing poorly. Turkey flexing the might in the region etc etc. I feel as beautiful as I know ISTANBUL is, I just can't image an olympics happening in it right now. And that honestly is based off of my media saturation so hold with me as I come around to the idea. Again this isn't that I don''t think they can do it. It's more I think these are issues that others might also think of when voting. Hell an istanbul Opening Ceremony to me would be one of the most exciting out of this group but just not feeling like it will get the nod.

Baku - Needs to bid professionally next cycle and we wills see.