61 replies to this topic

[Soaring]

I like analyzing rotation patterns. When I joined this forum back in 2007, my first post was about patterns, so I just thought it would be nice to discuss this topic in a thread. I know we talk about continental rotation in bits here and there all the time, but lets discuss some trends over the past 30 years or so...


Trend #1
Since 1952, all years ending in 2 have or will be held in Europe. *Summer Games Only*
Helsinki 1952, Munich 1972, Barcelona 1992, London 2012

Trend #2
Since 1976, all years ending in 6 have or will be held in the Americas. *Summer Games Only*
Montreal 1976, Atlanta 1996, Rio 2016 (all succeeded a European host)

Trend #3
Since 1988, all years ending in 8 have or will be held in Asia *Summer and Winter Games*
Seoul 1988, Nagano 1998, Beijing 2008, PyeongChang 2018 (all succeeded an American host except Beijing)


Years ending in 0 and 4 have no pattern. So expect those races to maybe be more unpredictable (at least from a continental rotation standpoint)


Have you noticed any other trends in Olympic hosting?

Edited by Soaring, 03 August 2011 - 12:46 PM.

[baron-pierreIV]

I like analyzing rotation patterns. When I joined this forum back in 2007, my first post was about patterns, so I just thought it would be nice to discuss this topic in a thread. I know we talk about continental rotation in bits here and there all the time, but lets discuss some trends over the past 30 years or so...


Trend #1
Since 1952, all years ending in 2 have or will be held in Europe. *Summer Games Only*
Helsinki 1952, Munich 1972, Barcelona 1992, London 2012

Trend #2
Since 1976, all years ending in 6 have or will be held in the Americas. *Summer Games Only*
Montreal 1976, Atlanta 1996, Rio 2016 (all succeeded a European host)

Trend #3
Since 1988, all years ending in 8 have or will be held in Asia *Summer and Winter Games*
Seoul 1988, Nagano 1998, Beijing 2008, PyeongChang 2018 (all succeeded an American host except Beijing)


Years ending in 0 and 4 have no pattern. So expect those races to maybe be more unpredictable (at least from a continental rotation standpoint)


Have you noticed any other trends in Olympic hosting?

Good observations!! Yeah, my "Revolving restaurant-Olympic winning city" phenomenon, except 2020 might get thrown off by Durban/RSA withdrawing.

http://www.gamesbids.com/forums/topic/19560-barons-new-bid-index-durban-will-win-2020/

But get this: guess what the revolving restaurant in Durban is called?

































































The ROMA Revolving Restaurant!! How spooky is that, huh?

Apparently, even Sapporo and Sarajevo have those damn things.

Edited by baron-pierreIV, 02 August 2011 - 10:19 PM.

[Gangwon]

For countries that have hosted at least 3 Olympics and have hosted both Summer and Winter Games, they are more likely to have hosted more Winter than Summer Games.

[walei]

With the significant dropping number of bids for 2018/2020, I think it would benefit the IOC if Rogge would actively campaign for one cycle that the election result somehow defies all patterns and logic.

Example: If IOC award 2020 to Tokyo, then IOC in the future can say

"Hey, everyone one should bid whenever they want because Winter/Summer ARE different just look at 2018/2020"

or give 2020 to North America:

"See there are no geopolitics now, all cities interested should bid!!"

[Sir Rols]

Always fun the consult the augurs.

I used to be struck by two similar sequences from 1956-1972 and 2000-2016 following on hostings in Oz (albeit, with one transliteration between the two):

1956 Melbourne (Australia, southern hemisphere); 1960 Rome (Mediterranean, ancient cultural capital); 1964 Tokyo (rising Asian economic power); 1968 Mexico City (Latin America, new frontier); 1972 Munich (western Europe).

2000 Sydney (Australia, southern hemisphere); 2004 Athens (Mediterranean, ancient cultural capital); 2008 Beijing (rising Asian economic power); 2012 London (western Europe); 2016 Rio deJaneiro (Latin America, new frontier).

Almost exactly the same apart from the 1968-72 and 2012-16 juxtapositions.

It's up to Toronto now to see if both these sequences can start with Oz and end with Canada (or, perhaps the USA to start with Oz and end with Nth America).

[Soaring]

I agree Walei. The IOC can't keep making the argument "there is no official continental rotation", when clearly there are distinct patterns. If they want to put that argument to rest, all they need to do is buck the trend by voting "out of rotation".

Rols, that is a great observation. I never saw that before.

Edited by Soaring, 02 August 2011 - 11:31 PM.

[Kenadian]

Not so much a pattern, but at least it is an odd little trend...

The Games of the III Olympiad and the III Olympic Winter Games were held in the United States (Saint Louis 1904 and Lake Placid 1932).
The Games of the XVIII Olympiad and the XVIII Olympic Winter Games were held in Japan (Tokyo 1964 and Nagano 1998).
The Games of the XXI Olympiad and the XXI Olympic Winter Games were held in Canada (Montreal 1976 and Vancouver 2010).
The Games of the XXII Olympiad and the XXII Olympic Winter Games were held in Russian communities (Moscow 1980 and Sochi 2014).

So could the XXV Olympic Winter Games in 2026 be in Spain? Or the XXVI Winter Games in 2030 be held in the USA? Maybe China will host the XXIX Winter Games in 2042?

[FYI]

Always fun the consult the augurs.

I used to be struck by two similar sequences from 1956-1972 and 2000-2016 following on hostings in Oz (albeit, with one transliteration between the two):

1956 Melbourne (Australia, southern hemisphere); 1960 Rome (Mediterranean, ancient cultural capital); 1964 Tokyo (rising Asian economic power); 1968 Mexico City (Latin America, new frontier); 1972 Munich (western Europe).

2000 Sydney (Australia, southern hemisphere); 2004 Athens (Mediterranean, ancient cultural capital); 2008 Beijing (rising Asian economic power); 2012 London (western Europe); 2016 Rio deJaneiro (Latin America, new frontier).

Almost exactly the same apart from the 1968-72 and 2012-16 juxtapositions.

It's up to Toronto now to see if both these sequences can start with Oz and end with Canada (or, perhaps the USA to start with Oz and end with Nth America).

Yeah, I've noticed that one before, too. But it's the juxta-position now that negates this trend to continue, until maybe Oz hosts again way later down the line.

[Sir Rols]

Yeah, I've noticed that one before, too. But it's the juxta-position now that negates this trend to continue, until maybe Oz hosts again way later down the line.

Well, of course that's the REAL reason why the IOC awarded 2016 to Rio. They realised their mistake and quickly did their best to fix it up.

Edited by Sir Rols, 03 August 2011 - 12:24 AM.

[baron-pierreIV]

Of course, there is the WOGs return to the U.S. every 20 years: 1960, 1980, 2002 (they changed the calendar), so as I've postulated all along...we are due for one in 2022!!

Edited by baron-pierreIV, 03 August 2011 - 12:49 AM.