Faster Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Here's the member and here is their geopolitical most likely vote. So enough of voting blocs and other nonsense Price Nawaf Faisal Fahd Abdulaziz - Saudi Arabia - Chicago Tamas Ajan - Hungary - Chicago Prince Ahmad Al-Fahad Al-Sabah - Kuwait - Chicago Princess Haya Bint Al Hussein - UAE - Tokyo Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani - Qatar - Chicago Prince Albert II - Monaco - Rio de Janeiro Shahid Ali - Pakistan - Chicago Beatrice Allen - Gambia - Chicago Thomas Bach - Germany - Rio de Janeiro Patrick Baumann - Switzerland - Rio de Janeiro Fernando Bello - Portugal - Rio de Janeiro Sepp Blatter - Switzerland - Rio de Janeiro Claudia Bokel - Germany - Rio de Janeiro Valeri Borzov - Ukraine - Rio de Janeiro Andres Botero Philippsbourne - Colombia - Chicago Els van Breda Vriesman - Netherlands - Rio de Janeiro Ukraine - Sergey bubka - Rio de Janeiro Franco Carraro - Italy - Rio de Janeiro Richard Carrion - Puerto Rico - Chicago Patrick Chamunda - Zambia - Chicago Chang Ung - Korea DPR - Madrid Ottavio Cinguanta - Italy - Madrid John Bowling Coastes - Australia - Rio de Janeiro Philip Coles - Australia - Rio de Janeiro Sir Philip Craven - Great Britain - Chicago Manuela Di Centa - Italy - Rio de Janeiro Lamine Diack - Senegal - Madrid Alpha Ibrahim Diallo - Madrid Ivan Dibos - Peru - Rio de Janeiro Guy Drut - France - Madrid Hicham El Guerrouj - Morocco - Madrid Nawal El Moutawakei - Morocco - Rio de Janeiro Fransisco Elizalde - Philippines - Chicago Rania Elwani - Egypt - Chicago Ugur Erdener - Turkey - Rio de Janeiro Rene Fasel - Switzerland - Madrid Timothy Fok - Hong Kong - Tokyo Frankie Fredericks - Namibia - Chicago Anton Geesink - Netherlands - Rio de Janeiro Alex Gilady - Israel - Chicago Reynaldo Gonzalez Lopez - Cuba - Rio de Janeiro Kevan Gosper - Australia - Chicago Issa Hayatou - Cameroon - Chicago Ke Zhenliang - PR China - Rio de Janeiro Gerhard Heiberg - Norway - Madrid Henri, Grad Duke of Luxembourg - Luxembourgh - Madrid Patrick Hickey - Ireland (the real one) - Chicago Nicole L.M. Hoevertsz - Aruba - Chicago Prince Tunku Imran - Malaysia - Tokyo Willi Kaltschmitt Lujan - Guatemala - Rio de Janeiro Gian-Franco Kasper - Switzerland - Rio de Janeiro Nat Indrapana - Thailand - Tokyo Kipchoge Keino - Kenya - Chicago Toni Khoury - Lebanon - Tokyo Jean-Calude Killy - France - Madrid Saku Koivu - Finland - Chicago Mustapha Larfaoui - Algeria - Rio de Janeiro Lee Jun-Hee - Korea Republic - Madrid Princess Nora - Liechtenstein - Madrid Gunulla Lindberg - Sweden - Rio de Janeiro Arne Ljungqvist - Sweden - Madrid Julio Cesar Maglione - Rio de Janeiro Robin Mitchell - Fiji - Tokyo Dae Sung Moon - Kore Republic - Rio de Janeiro Samin Moudallal - Syria - Rio de Janeiro Mohammed Mzali - Tunisia - Rio de Janeiro Ng Ser Miang - Singapore - Tokyo Lambis Nikolau - Greece - Chicago Francis Nyangweso - Uganda - Chicago Will-Alexander, Prince of Orange - Netherlands - Madrid Denis Oswald - Switzerland - Madrid Lassana Palenfo - Cote d'Ivoire - Chicago Mario Pescante - Italy - Madrid Aleksandr Popov - Russia - Rio de Janeiro Dick Pound - Canada - Tokyo Sam Ramsamy - South Africa - Chicago Sir Craig Reedie - Great Britain - Chicago Francesco Ricci Bitti - Italy - Rio de Janeiro Anne, Princess Royal - Great Britain - Chicago Yumilka Ruiz Luaces - Cuba - Rio de Janeiro Mounir Sabet - Egypt - Rio de Janeiro Meliton Sanchez Rivas - Panama - Chicago Pal Schmitt - Hungary - Madrid Rebecca Scott - Canada - Chicago Austin Sealy - Barbados - Chicago Randhir Signh - India - Tokyo Vitali Smirnov - Russia - Madrid Rita Subowo - Indonesia - Tokyo Irena Szewinska - Poland - Rio de Janeiro Peter Taliberg - Finland - Madrid Shamil Tarpishchev - Russia - Rio de Janeiro Walther Troger - Germany - Rio de Janeiro Mario Vazques Rana - Mexico - Madrid Olegario Vazquez Rana - Mexico - Madrid Antun Vrdoljak - Croatia - Rio de Janeiro Leo Wallner - Austria - Rio de Janeiro Pernilla Wiberg - Sweden - Rio de Janeiro Wu Ching-Kou - Chinese Taipei - Tokyo yu Zaiqing - PR China - Rio de Janeiro Kan Zelezny - Czech Republic - Rio de Janeiro So after Round One Rio de Janeiro - 39 Chicago - 29 Madrid - 21 Tokyo - 11 I used geopolitics, the IOC member themselves, the date they joined the IOC, whether they were a former athlete and guess work to assign a city. I am actually interested in seeing how close my first round is to the actual first round. I am guessing it will be spot on on the order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Menegaz Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Will Nawal El Moutawakel vote for Rio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Faster, why did you assign Rio to Prince Albert? I mean what connections does he have with Rio? I might give that vote to Chicago because of his maternal connections. And Pescante has long wanted to give the Games back to the US. Recently he (or Cinquanta) publicly went on recrod that he wanted to give the Games back to the US for their big contributions to Olympism. So I would change those 2. And the Taipeh guy, I don't know if he is the same one with the Boxing Federation, but the head of the Boxing Federation committed to CHicago after their last-minute fill-in last year for the World Championships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Menegaz Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Faster, why did yuo assign Rio to Prince Albert? I mean what connections does he have with Rio? I might give thta vote to Chicago because of his maternal connections. For me, the only city that would not receive the vote from Prince Albert is Tokyo. He hates sushi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTown16 Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 For me, the only city that would not receive the vote from Prince Albert is Tokyo. He hates sushi... Should those Japanese/Tokyo votes need a home in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds: 237 Sushi Restaurants in the City of Chicago: http://chicago.metromix.com/facets/home/ty...?keywords=sushi or about 1 Sushi Restaurant for every 2.5 sq. km (608.1 sq km in the city) or 1 Sushi Restaurant for every 12,000 people (2.8 million) CHItown '16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
memorabilia Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Once again, we could not do those kind of prediction. Each member has his own reason to vote for one city... We do not know all what they have in mind, what are there background, of they already travel often to those cities, the place where their wifes want to do shopping or lie on the beach..... Regarding the French members, from what i know from them (and had the opportunity to meet both several in the past), i am pretty sure they will not vote for Madrid... but their vote could be split between Rio & Chicago ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinderella Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Oh, wow... so few votes for Tokyo in the first round? I really don't think so, it would be humiliating. I see Tokyo falling narrowly to the other contender but not with such a big difference. Either I can't see Rio leading the race with 10 votes more than Chicago in the first round. It will be tighter than this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
demetrius Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Faster, why did you assign Rio to Prince Albert? I mean what connections does he have with Rio? I might give that vote to Chicago because of his maternal connections. And Pescante has long wanted to give the Games back to the US. Recently he (or Cinquanta) publicly went on recrod that he wanted to give the Games back to the US for their big contributions to Olympism. So I would change those 2. Ramblings and scoop people Prince Albert's girl friend is...Charleen Widstock from South Africa! For sure, he will not vote for RIO, because CAP TOWN 2020!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinderella Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Faster, why did you assign Rio to Prince Albert? I mean what connections does he have with Rio? I might give that vote to Chicago because of his maternal connections. And Pescante has long wanted to give the Games back to the US. Recently he (or Cinquanta) publicly went on recrod that he wanted to give the Games back to the US for their big contributions to Olympism. So I would change those 2.Ramblings and scoop people Prince Albert's girl friend is...Charleen Widstock from South Africa! For sure, he will not vote for RIO, because CAP TOWN 2020!!! Well, I tend to think that Prince Albert vote will be for Madrid, because he was hardly criticised when asking Madrid delegation in Singapore about terrorist issue... and just the day after a global issue of the world happened in the most unexpected place. Gossips in Spanishs newspapers were published that Prince Albert sent a letter apologising to the Zarzuela palace saying he was "in debt" with the city of Madrid with such an embarrasing question. True or false (maybe false), I'm sure he suddenly learnt that there are some questions that are simply stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micheal_warren Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 How did you decide on the Aussies votes? Its a real shame that New Zealand doesn't have a vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cslopes54 Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I wouldn't be surprised if Madrid places ahead of Chicago or a second place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I wouldn't be surprised if Madrid places ahead of Chicago or a second place.. 2nd place is quite unlikely. I'd say Faster's list has a 10% margin of error. After all, it is one man's speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cslopes54 Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 2nd place is quite unlikely.I'd say Faster's list has a 10% margin of error. After all, it is one man's speculation. On Fasters list Madrid nd Chicago are very close, realistic hypothesi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 On Fasters list Madrid nd Chicago are very close, realistic hypothesi? It's going to be a tight one all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Menegaz Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Well, certainlly it will be the tightest race in the Olympic history... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Once again, we could not do those kind of prediction. Each member has his own reason to vote for one city...We do not know all what they have in mind, what are there background, of they already travel often to those cities, the place where their wifes want to do shopping or lie on the beach..... Regarding the French members, from what i know from them (and had the opportunity to meet both several in the past), i am pretty sure they will not vote for Madrid... but their vote could be split between Rio & Chicago ! The reason so many of the old guard European votes went to Madrid is so that Madrid is not embarrassed in the first round. That is why they have 21 votes. If I had bothered to do a second round a considerable number of those votes would shift to Rio and Chicago. And it won't be a tight race, Rio is walking away with this. I have no doubt Rio is going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Menegaz Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Wil Dick Pound vote for Tokyo? I don't think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 The reason so many of the old guard European votes went to Madrid is so that Madrid is not embarrassed in the first round. That is why they have 21 votes. If I had bothered to do a second round a considerable number of those votes would shift to Rio and Chicago. And it won't be a tight race, Rio is walking away with this. I have no doubt Rio is going to win. I think Rio has a very good chance of leading the first round, but I think you might be getting a little ahead of yourself. The first round may not be the tightest in history, but it will be close. 2012 had a very close first round - London - 22 Paris - 21 Madrid - 20 New York - 19 Moscow - 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Wil Dick Pound vote for Tokyo? I don't think so... Pound has a history for voting for the most realistic technical bid. That is Tokyo this time. Tokyo fits most into Pound's statements about the Olympics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Yeah, but he has seemed to have made positive statements for Chicago. He really doesn't seem to be a fan for Rio though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I think Rio has a very good chance of leading the first round, but I think you might be getting a little ahead of yourself.The first round may not be the tightest in history, but it will be close. 2012 had a very close first round - London - 22 Paris - 21 Madrid - 20 New York - 19 Moscow - 15 So this is not 2012 and there is a clear favourite this time around. This is now Rio's race to lose, it is not a closely bunched pack, the desire to push the games to South America within Europe is far too strong to overcome now. And if you have been paying attention to the inside information coming out, votes for Chicago have been shifting and this means that its not gonna be as tight as it would have been thought 6 months ago. I am now not convinced that this will go the full three rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Menegaz Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Pound has a history for voting for the most realistic technical bid. That is Tokyo this time. Tokyo fits most into Pound's statements about the Olympics. In my opinion, Pound will vote for Chicago as he had close relations with the USOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faster Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 He has also been one of the most critical of the USOC and their unwillingness to lower their cut of IOC revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soaring Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 So this is not 2012 and there is a clear favourite this time around. This is now Rio's race to lose, it is not a closely bunched pack, the desire to push the games to South America within Europe is far too strong to overcome now.And if you have been paying attention to the inside information coming out, votes for Chicago have been shifting and this means that its not gonna be as tight as it would have been thought 6 months ago. I am now not convinced that this will go the full three rounds. I agree that this race is not as close as one might have thought, but I actually think it tighten up from here. The evaluation reports have not even come out yet, so I think your zealousness for Rio is a bit premature. But if Obama shows up in Copenhagen, all gloves are off between Rio and Chicago (it will be a fight). Just think. This will be the ONLY opportunity the world has to vote for Obama. He drew 200,000 people in Germany. What other world leader has done that in recent memory? Now, I don't want to put too much stock in Obama, but Chicago does have a very nice bid, and that should not be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baron-pierreIV Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 He has also been one of the most critical of the USOC and their unwillingness to lower their cut of IOC revenue. Being openly critical but casting your secret ballot are two different things which are not mutually exclusive. The Evaluation Report will sway a few analytically-minded 'not-sures' in the first round; and a leader's presence/pitch will clinch those wavering in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. It's either Chicago or Rio by 4-8 votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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