BidIndex

Arrow About BidIndex

BidIndex WINTER 2022
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
AlmatyAMY01/3100.0000.00Unchanged0.0000.00
BeijingBJG01/3100.0000.00Up0.0000.00
KrakowKKWDLD00.0000.00DownDLD00.00
LvivLVVDLD00.0000.00DownDLD00.00
OsloOLODLD00.0000.00Down0.0000.00
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change
DATE NOTES:  01-31-14 BidIndex 2022 Ticker Created (AMY, BJG, KKW, LVV, OLO) | 05-26-14 KKW Delisted | 07-01-14 LVV Delisted 10-01-14 OLO Delisted

BidIndex Information

Arrow BidIndex Description
Arrow BidIndex Definitions
Arrow BidIndex Archive - BidIndex for previous bids
Arrow BidIndex 2020 
Arrow BidIndex 2018
Arrow BidIndex 2016
Arrow BidIndex 2014
Arrow BidIndex 2012
Arrow BidIndex 2010
Arrow BidIndex USA for 2012

Arrow BidIndex News
Arrow BidIndex Helps Us Keep Score (More Info.)

For further questions or additional information please click here.

  

BidIndex Description

BidIndex LogoBidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success.

This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources.

The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyze selected bids with our National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC's (e.g. The United States Olympic Committee's selection for the 2012 bid).

While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex does not predict the winner or rank the bids. It is designed to measure the competitiveness of each bid on a static scale.

BidIndex was reviewed in the March 2004 edition of Significance Magazine, a publication by the Royal Statistical Society.

What is BidIndex?
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success. The model was developed by observing historical trends and results of previous bids. BidIndex numbers can be theoretically used to compare competing bids and the relative strength of bids held in different years (e.g. to compare Paris 2008 with Paris 2012). A higher BidIndex indicates a greater chance of being elected.

Why BidIndex?
It has been observed in the past the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids.

Does BidIndex work?
While no one can guarantee the results of an election, BidIndex will tell you which bids have more of the qualities of successful bids from the past. A high BidIndex number does not necessarily indicate a high quality bid, but a bid similar to other successful bids. When the model is applied to the 2008 bid, these results were obtained based on information a day before the vote:

Bid CityBidIndexRound 1
Votes
Round 2
Votes
Beijing75.444456
Toronto63.792022
Paris58.711518
Istanbul53.94179
Osaka53.816-

Although most analysts rated the quality of the Paris and Toronto bids to be higher than Beijing's, Beijing was successful. BidIndex projects this result.

What causes a BidIndex number to change?
BidIndex numbers change when either the fundamentals of a bid change, a competing bid changes, a competing bid either enters or drops from the competition, or the election fundamentals change. For example, as time goes on a bid may increase government support, lose public support or the IOC may release information such as an evaluation report. These kinds of things affect the day-to-day dynamics of a bid and result in a change of the BidIndex. Early in an election cycle, fluctuations may be more dramatic as new information comes out and categories in the model are filled. Numbers are more accurate as the election day is approached. Occasionally, the BidIndex model may be modified which will also be reflected.

When are BidIndex numbers updated?
BidIndex is updated when fundamentals cause the numbers to change. This can happen in hours or in weeks, depending on how things change. Expect numbers to change more frequently when the selection process begins.

When does a city get listed in BidIndex?
A city gets listed in BidIndex once it has become an NOC confirmed candidate and there is sufficiant data available to generate a BidIndex number.

BidIndex Definitions

City = Applicant City

Symbol = A 3 letter short form of the city

Status = Current listing status

Prelisted = Data is being accumulated for the city to create new BidIndex

Delisted = Bid has ended because (a) city did not make short-list, (b) city dropped out or (c) bid election is over

Halted = Index is waiting to be updated due to significant fundamental change such as the release of an evaluation report or an IOC announcement

MM/DD = The month and day of the last Index change for this city

High = All-time Index high for this City

Low = All-time Index low for this City

Change = Value change from previous Index listing

Index = The City's current BidIndex value

BidIndex Archive

BidIndex ARCHIVE
 
CITYBIDSYMNOTEHIGHLOWDATEFINAL
SUMMER 2020 ELECTION - 09/07/13
IstanbulS2020ISTLEL61.9660.202/09/1361.45
MadridS2020MADLEL58.7655.102/09/1358.76
TokyoS2020TKYWON62.3159.922/09/1362.14
BakuS2020BKUELM43.6643.665/14/1243.66
DohaS2020DHAELM53.0853.085/14/1253.08
WINTER 2018 ELECTION - 07/06/11
AnnecyW2018ACYLEL55.0351.447/06/1154.86
MunichW2018MUNLEL65.8361.647/06/1165.83
PyeongChangW2018PCHWON66.2962.407/06/1166.17
SUMMER 2016 ELECTION - 10/02/09
ChicagoS2016CHILEL61.2458.7810/02/0961.24
MadridS2016MADLEL59.5057.8010/02/0957.80
Rio de JaneiroS2016RIOWON61.6159.7310/02/0961.42
TokyoS2016TKYLEL61.4159.2010/02/0959.02
BakuS2016BKUELM36.8536.436/04/0836.43
DohaS2016DHAELM53.4652.836/04/0853.46
PragueS2016PRGELM37.5937.176/04/0837.17
WINTER 2014 ELECTION - 7/05/07
PyeongChangW2014PCHLEL64.9955.727/04/0764.99
SalzburgW2014SALLEL65.3560.637/04/0762.62
SochiW2014JACWON63.1756.717/04/0763.17
AlmatyW2014AMYELM42.2840.986/22/0642.28
BorjomiW2014BRJELM31.3630.386/22/0631.36
JacaW2014JACELM52.6850.576/22/0652.68
SofiaW2014SFAELM47.2646.726/22/0646.72
SUMMER 2012 ELECTION - 07/06/05
LondonS2012LONWON65.0760.077/06/0565.07
MadridS2012MADLEL61.4155.327/06/0561.22
MoscowS2012MOSLEL50.2845.587/06/0549.58
New YorkS2012NYCLEL60.1556.407/06/0557.59
ParisS2012PARLEL66.6361.837/06/0566.18
HavanaS2012HVAELM36.4033.945/18/0436.40
IstanbulS2012ISTELM59.7557.255/18/0459.46
LeipzigS2012LPZELM48.4744.745/18/0448.47
Rio de JaneiroS2012RDJELM62.2260.775/18/0462.22
WINTER 2010 ELECTION - 7/02/03
PyeongchangW2010PCHLEL60.1240.447/02/0360.05
SalzburgW2010SALLEL66.8245.217/02/0366.82
VancouverW2010VANWON65.3148.857/02/0365.31
Andorra la VellaW2010ALVELM49.0641.299/05/0241.29
BerneW2010BRNDRP61.1354.039/27/0256.56
HarbinW2010HBNELM40.7036.489/05/0240.70
JacaW2010JACELM50.5146.049/05/0248.73
SarajevoW2010SARELM31.3526.709/05/0226.70
USA 2012 NOMINATION - 11/02/02
HoustonUS2012HOUELM68.1163.228/29/0268.11
New YorkUS2012NYCWON69.3162.8511/02/0262.85
San FranciscoUS2012SFOLEL69.0561.8811/02/0266.64
WashingtonUS2012WASELM68.4262.488/29/0268.16
SUMMER 2008 ELECTION - 7/13/01
BeijingS2008BJGWON  7/13/0175.44
IstanbulS2008ISTLEL  7/13/0153.94
OsakaS2008OSALEL  7/13/0153.81
ParisS2008PARLEL  7/13/0158.71
TorontoS2008TORLEL  7/13/0163.79

DRP = voluntarily dropped out of race; ELM = eliminated by bid process; LEL = lost election; WON = won host city bid

 

BidIndex 2020

BidIndex SUMMER 2020
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
IstanbulIST09/0261.9660.20Down0.5161.45
MadridMAD09/0258.7655.10Up2.2758.76
TokyoTKY09/0262.3159.92Down0.1762.14
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES:  01-30-12 BidIndex 2020 Ticker Created (BKU, DHA, IST, MAD, ROM, TKY) | 02-15-12 ROM Delisted | 05-14-12 BidIndex Released | 05-23-12 BKU, DHA Delisted | 02-28-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY) | 05-27-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY) 09-02-13 Update (IST, MAD, TKY)


BidIndex 2018

BidIndex WINTER 2018
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
AnnecyACYHLT55.0351.441.0154.86
MunichMUNHLT65.8361.640.8465.83
PyeongChangPCHHLT66.2962.400.1266.17
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change
DATE NOTES:  10-16-09 BidIndex 2018 Ticker Created (ACY, MUN, PCH) | 04-16-10 BidIndex Released | 01-10-11 BidIndex Updated | 04-06-11 BidIndex Updated | 05-19-11 BidIndex Updated | 06-29-11 BidIndex Updated | 07-06-11 BidIndex halted for election |


BidIndex 2016

BidIndex SUMMER 2016
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
ChicagoCHIHLT61.2458.781.2361.24
MadridMADHLT59.5057.800.0057.80
Rio de JaneiroRIOHLT61.6159.730.1961.42
TokyoTKYHLT61.4159.200.1859.02
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change
DATE NOTES: 10-01-09 BidIndex Halted Prior to election| 09-28-09 BidIndex Update | 09-10-09 BidIndex Update | 03-23-09 BidIndex Update | 11-05-08 BidIndex Update | 05-29-08 BidIndex Update | 05-29-08 BKU, DHA, PRG Halted after being eliminated | 05-29-08 BidIndex 2016 Update | 02-14-08 BidIndex 2016 Released | 01-11-08 BidIndex 2016 Ticker Created (BKU, CHI, DHA, MAD, PRG, RIO, TKY) |


BidIndex 2014

BidIndex WINTER 2014 - FINAL 
 
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
PyeongChangPCH06/2764.9955.7200.0964.99
SalzburgSAL06/2765.3560.6301.3162.62
SochiSCH06/2763.1756.7102.2263.17
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change
DATE NOTES: 06-27-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Evaluation Report | 04-03-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Bid Books/Visits | 01-09-07 BidIndex 2014 Update Ahead of Bid Book Release | 06-22-06 AMY, BRJ, JAC, SFA Halted after cut | 06-20-06 BidIndex 2014 Updated Ahead of Short-list | 02-28-06 BidIndex 2014 Released | 02-01-06 Bidindex 2014 Ticker Created (ALM, BRJ, JAC, PCH, SAL, SCH, SFA)  


BidIndex 2012

BidIndex SUMMER 2012 - FINAL -
 
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
LondonLON07/0465.0760.070.1965.07
MadridMAD07/0461.4155.320.1961.22
MoscowMOS07/0450.2845.580.0049.58
New YorkNYC07/0460.1556.400.5457.59
ParisPAR07/0466.6361.830.0066.18
SYM = Bid City "Ticker" Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change
DATE NOTES: 07-06-05 BidIndex CLOSED | 07-04-05 BidIndex Update/NYC RESUMED | 06-15-05 BidIndex Update/NYC HLT | 05-10-05 BidIndex Update | 11-12-04 BidIndex Update | 06-17-04 BidIndex Update/RESUMED | 05-18-04 HVA,IST,LPZ,RDJ - DLD | 05-16-04 BidIndex Update/HLT for shortlist | 02-24-04 BidIndex Update | 01-11-04 BidIndex 2012 Released  


BidIndex 2010

BidIndex WINTER 2010 - FINAL
 
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
PyeongchangPCHHLT60.1240.440.0760.05
SalzburgSALHLT66.8245.210.2766.82
VancouverVANHLT65.3148.850.3665.31


BidIndex United States 2012

BidIndex UNITED STATES 2012 - FINAL
 
CITYSYMSTATHIGHLOW*CHGINDEX
New YorkNYCHLT69.3162.853.4662.85
San FranciscoSFOHLT69.0561.882.4166.64

 

 

 

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