BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success.
This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources.
The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyze selected bids with our National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC's (e.g. The United States Olympic Committee's selection for the 2012 bid).
While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex does not predict the winner or rank the bids. It is designed to measure the competitiveness of each bid on a static scale.
BidIndex was reviewed in the March 2004 edition of Significance Magazine, a publication by the Royal Statistical Society.
What is BidIndex?
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success. The model was developed by observing historical trends and results of previous bids. BidIndex numbers can be theoretically used to compare competing bids and the relative strength of bids held in different years (e.g. to compare Paris 2008 with Paris 2012). A higher BidIndex indicates a greater chance of being elected.
It has been observed in the past the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids.
Does BidIndex work?
While no one can guarantee the results of an election, BidIndex will tell you which bids have more of the qualities of successful bids from the past. A high BidIndex number does not necessarily indicate a high quality bid, but a bid similar to other successful bids. When the model is applied to the 2008 bid, these results were obtained based on information a day before the vote:
|Bid City||BidIndex||Round 1|
Although most analysts rated the quality of the Paris and Toronto bids to be higher than Beijing's, Beijing was successful. BidIndex projects this result.
What causes a BidIndex number to change?
BidIndex numbers change when either the fundamentals of a bid change, a competing bid changes, a competing bid either enters or drops from the competition, or the election fundamentals change. For example, as time goes on a bid may increase government support, lose public support or the IOC may release information such as an evaluation report. These kinds of things affect the day-to-day dynamics of a bid and result in a change of the BidIndex. Early in an election cycle, fluctuations may be more dramatic as new information comes out and categories in the model are filled. Numbers are more accurate as the election day is approached. Occasionally, the BidIndex model may be modified which will also be reflected.
When are BidIndex numbers updated?
BidIndex is updated when fundamentals cause the numbers to change. This can happen in hours or in weeks, depending on how things change. Expect numbers to change more frequently when the selection process begins.
When does a city get listed in BidIndex?
A city gets listed in BidIndex once it has become an NOC confirmed candidate and there is sufficiant data available to generate a BidIndex number.
City = Applicant City
Symbol = A 3 letter short form of the city
Status = Current listing status
Prelisted = Data is being accumulated for the city to create new BidIndex
Delisted = Bid has ended because (a) city did not make short-list, (b) city dropped out or (c) bid election is over
Halted = Index is waiting to be updated due to significant fundamental change such as the release of an evaluation report or an IOC announcement
MM/DD = The month and day of the last Index change for this city
High = All-time Index high for this City
Low = All-time Index low for this City
Change = Value change from previous Index listing
Index = The City's current BidIndex value
|BidIndex ARCHIVE |
DRP = voluntarily dropped out of race; ELM = eliminated by bid process; LEL = lost election; WON = won host city bid
|BidIndex WINTER 2014 - FINAL |
|BidIndex SUMMER 2012 - FINAL - |
|BidIndex WINTER 2010 - FINAL |
|BidIndex UNITED STATES 2012 - FINAL |
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