GamesBids.com BidIndex Shows Momentum Shifting to Munich 2018; PyeongChang Stays Ahead
All three bids for the 2018 Olympic Winter Games ticked up in Thursday's update of the GamesBids.com BidIndex - but Munich achieved the greatest gain as the bid committees completed critical presentations at the International Olympic Committee (IOC) headquarters in Lausanne, Switzerland.
Last week the IOC released the important bid city evaluation reports that are based on site visits and the content of written dossiers outlining detailed plans for the Games. The comments were generally positive for each of the candidates.
"The Commission believes that all three Candidate Cities could successfully host the 2018 Olympic Winter Games, with each city offering its own distinct vision and concept," the report summarized.
Thursday's BidIndex release accounts for the evaluation results and any new developments that have occurred in the bid race since the SportAccord Convention held in London last month – including some important fundamental changes for Munich.
Despite Munich's surge, PyeongChang managed to maintain the best BidIndex result of the candidates, moving up 1.3 points to an impressive 66.29 - the highest the South Korean bid has reached in all of its three campaigns in the past decade. PyeongChang’s results continue to be driven by experience, compact venue concept, developed venues, and compelling legacy plans; and they are supported by strong presentations and the winning track record of consulting team Vero Communications.
While remaining just behind the frontrunner, Munich accelerated up to 64.99, a leap of 2.68 points to a campaign high. The increase was due in part to the recent release of downward pressure caused by two unresolved contract issues. One issue was settled last week when the citizens of Garmisch-Partenkirchen, part of the snow cluster, supported a referendum in favour of the Olympic bid; the second was settled just two days ago when an important final parcel of land at Kandahar was secured by contract with the landowner.
Annecy was up 1.08 to 53.85 following Wednesday’s IOC presentation that featured influential Olympian Jean-Claude Killy reaffirming his important support for the bid.
The French bid fell behind early when a lacklustre venue plan was initially proposed and the IOC sent a stern warning to improve. A lack of sufficient funding and the perception of inexperience in the team kept the bid behind. But since Charles Beigbeder took over as President, providing new leadership and securing additional funding – the bid has been making strides forward. However, this may be a case of too little, too late as the Annecy team has yet to provide a compelling case for IOC members to cast their vote to bring the Games back to France, where in the Annecy area public support is in the low 50’s.
The BidIndex bid assessment model is a de facto industry standard and is based on technical bid plans, on-site evaluations, and a comprehensive statistical history of International Olympic Committee voting patterns. Because the IOC often does not elect the technically best bids - BidIndex determines which bid “best fits” the way International Olympic Committee members typically vote.
BidIndex has evaluated the past 5 Olympic bid races and has been extremely successful in separating the top contending bids from the cities that the IOC just isn’t interested in. In the most recent evaluation, BidIndex determined that Rio de Janeiro was most likely to host the 2016 Olympic Games among four candidates.
With only 48 days to go, BidIndex will continue to updated as necessary throughout the remainder of this crucial stage in the campaign. Recent bids have demonstrated that momentum towards the final election is key to a bid's success.
The final vote for the 2018 Olympic Winter Games host city will take place at the IOC session in Durban, South Africa on July 6.
Annecy: 53.85 (+1.08)
Munich: 64.99 (+2.68)
PyeongChang: 66.29 (+1.30)
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