BidIndex for the 2016 Olympic Bids Released By GamesBids.com - Tight Race Revealed

A very competitive race among the bids to host the 2016 Olympic Games was revealed Thursday with the release of GamesBids.com's BidIndex, the de facto standard formula for rating Olympic bids throughout their campaigns. The newly released ratings paint a clear picture of what the shortlist - to be announced by the International Olympic Committee in June, 2008 - might look like.

Separated by less than half of a point, the scores among the top three applicants are so close it's virtually a tie at this early stage in the campaign. Rio de Janiero sits atop the field scoring 60.81 followed by Chicago at 60.57 and then Tokyo with 60.41. Madrid sits within easy striking distance of the leaders with a score of 58.25 while Doha is further behind with 52.83 points.

Two bids that lag behind considerably are Prague at 37.59 and Baku with 36.85.

BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success. London's winning 2012 bid had a final BidIndex score of 65.07 while Sochi's winning 2014 Winter Games bids scored 63.17.

The initial results are based on information included in the bids' application files as well as other geographical, political and economic background considerations - however there are still many more bid fundamentals that will be incorporated into the scores during the months to come that could dramatically impact the results.

At the start of their bid for the 2012 Olympic Games, Rio de Janeiro left the gate with a BidIndex score of 60.77, just 0.04 less than their 2016 results and good enough for second place. But Rio failed to make the five city shortlist just six months later. The second consecutive try could be different for the Brazilian City that has recently gained experience with the 2007 Pan Am Games and will host the 2014 FIFA World Cup - it is poised to make the shortlist this time around. The IOC has been hinting at a South American Olympic Games and they'll be anxious to hear Rio's bid.

Chicago's bid seems to be the early press favorite in the campaign and their BidIndex score reflects this. A well devised plan, strong organization and a geographical window-of-opportunity are among the initial positive fundamentals that Chicago has in its favor.

Tokyo's bid has also come on strong in the early going and the city is offering a city center Olympic Park among various elements of an intriguing venue plan. With an available infrastructure, lots of accomodations and a strong organization, the Japanese bid will remain a contender until the end.

Improving by almost three points and two positions from its 2012 BidIndex debut, Madrid has aggressively pursued this 2016 campaign even though the cards seem to be stacked against them. The bid committee has improved based on what they've learned from the last campaign; they've proposed an interesting venue plan and have backed it up with strong public support - but they'll need to compete against a geographical bias. With both the 2012 and 2014 Olympic Games being held in Europe, there is a strong possibility the IOC will choose to go elsewhere in 2016.

The big question mark will be the bid from Doha, Qatar; it's fate may lie in whether the IOC chooses to move forward with a four city or five city shortlist. Sitting isolated in a distant fourth place in these ratings, Doha will likely be near the benchmark set by IOC evaluators. While the bid is well supported by public opinion and government entities and has recent experience (the Asian Games) and a decent plan - the climate has forced organizers to choose Games dates outside of the IOC's desired window. If the IOC is looking to build a strong partnership with this Arab nation, they'll probably be included in the shortlist. Doha need to prove that the schedule will work and that the necessary infrastructure - including hotel rooms - will be built.

The Czech Republic bid from Prague has presented a competitive plan, but one that may be a bit premature. The extreme lack of public and government support and the questionable financial guarantees impact BidIndex in some of the most critical areas resulting in a score that is well below the acceptable range.

Baku is in a similar position - it might be just to soon for Azerbaijan to host the Olympic Games. Without much experience and lacking a lot of the required infrastructure, this organizers are bidding with their hearts. They'll need to build many of the venues and spend huge amounts of money to convert an oil field into an Olympic Park. While this will result in a valuable legacy - it's too much risk for the IOC.

BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based solely on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.

Before you draw any conclusions keep in mind that the race has barely begun and only about 25% of the information needed by BidIndex is available. Results of two evaluation reports and additional data will be needed to complete the BidIndex analysis which will be updated frequently before the Host City Election to be held in Copenhagen on October 2, 2009.

Full BidIndex details can be found on the BidIndex results page or contact BidIndex@GamesBids.com for more information.

BAKU 36.85
CHICAGO 60.57
DOHA 52.83
MADRID 58.25
PRAGUE 37.59
RIO 60.81
TOKYO 60.41

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