Tight Race, Surprises, Highlight Release of BidIndex 2012

GamesBids.com has released the 2012 version of BidIndex, a revered mathematical model that rates the nine Olympic bids by comparing them with past successful bids. Initial results illustrate a clear division between the top contenders and outsiders in the 2012 race, suggesting what the May shortlist might look like.

Paris has the top score of 61.83 just marginally ahead of its cross-Channel rival London with a tally of 60.07 points. But surprisingly Rio de Janeiro sits between the two in second place with 60.77 points.

In another surprise, perennial bidder Istanbul (57.25) claimed fourth spot just ahead of the two world capitals, New York (56.40) and Madrid (55.32), rounding off the top six cities. All achieved strong scores - above 55 - which BidIndex interprets as strong, contending bids that have many similarities to historically successful bids.

The final three bids - Moscow (45.78), Leipzig (44.74) and Havana (34.58) showed that they lack many of the fundamentals common in successful bids and may have a greater challenge making the shortlist.

In this pre-dossier analysis Rio is strengthened by geography that puts it in a favorable time zone (for U.S. television) and in a new continent virtually untapped by the IOC - with similarities to Beijing's successful 2008 bid. Rio will be hosting the 2007 Pan Am Games.

Paris and London will benefit from strong European support and experienced organizations. Both countries have submitted bids in recent years. Advanced infrastructures, good public support, and the perception that it will be "Europe's turn" will also help.

This will be Istanbul's fourth consecutive bid as they continue to build their plans, infrastructure and relationships with International Olympic Committee (IOC) members. Favorable voting results for 2008 (finishing ahead of Paris on the first ballot) show that the IOC may be warming up to the prospects of an Istanbul Games.

New York has one of the most advanced bids on the list after winning a fierce battle against seven other cities for the U.S. national nomination. However, a myriad of issues including large and risky construction plans, political reluctance from the Euro-centric IOC and recent Summer and Winter Games already held in the U.S. puts New York in a slightly weaker position then its rivals.

Madrid will also present a strong, organized bid and will share in the European benefits. However the successful 1992 Barcelona Games could be both a strength and a weakness showing that Spain can do a good job, but it may be to soon for them to bid again.

Plans for Moscow and Leipzig are still questionable at this point and there are doubts that the resources and infrastructure will provide enough confidence to IOC voters. Some key fundamentals are lacking and these bids are inconsistent with previous successful bids.

Havana bid for the 2008 Games but failed to make the shortlist and it is doubtful that they will be successful this time around. Cuba has a severe lack of infrastructure and organization and the lack of relations with the IOC's key market, the United States, will keep them out of the running.

BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.

Before you draw any conclusions keep in mind that the race has barely begun and only about 25% of the information needed by BidIndex is available. Results of two evaluation reports and additional data will be needed to complete the BidIndex analysis which will be updated frequently before the Host City Election in July 2005.

Bid application questionnaires will be submitted to the IOC later this week and once published will provide further details that will factor into BidIndex. Expect significant updates later this month.

Full BidIndex details can be found on the BidIndex page or contact BidIndex@GamesBids.com for more information. Write or read comments about this article